Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Awesome! What work are you going to see?
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Jan 2016 was awesome from tracking to finish. When we have our usual modeling ups and downs, I appreciate that storm even more--I mean the EASIEST tracking with uniformity across all models for like 5-6 days. I don't think some of us realized then how rare that was! It's what we wish modeling could be all the time, lol
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I haven't hit 20" in 9 years. I've only hit the median (15") twice in that timeframe. And all the last 6 years DC/s & e of me have done far better. If I was getting climo it wouldn't be as bad. But the last 6 years or so have been historically the worst that we've ever had. And 6" for a storm with this much potential is not an unreasonable expectation. Like PSU said, it's a difference between getting 6-10" and getting fringed with like 3".
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More of an anticipation of future trends. I WISH it could stay the same as today's runs. I'd take that and run!
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This. Anything below 6" is a fail to me. And a modeling fail too...that would mean they weren't even close to the right idea!
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I mean, my base expectations were to break the 6" mark. Never woulda thought that was too high...but looking at seasonal persistence and the 12z trend...if you get another z or 2 of that it's kinda the same, isn't jt?
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Pretty much the same story in Baltimore. Listen you know this winter is just bad luck if we can't even get 6 inches in our yards from a system like this...I mean that would be insane.
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I'm just looking for snow over 6". And what happened to today, I'm wondering how low the low end is. I mean...isn't or partial phase (or worse) still on the table?
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Yep...this is starting to feel like another screw job in the making. We're not there yet, but what WxUSAF just shared about the weaking of that piece in the NS on the eps has me concerned. We need that to stop and/or reverse course. If it doesn't...mercy.
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Your area has done much better than the screw zone some of us have been in. 4-8" would be fine...but if 4-8 happens with this storm to that would mean the same folks would be closer to the 4" mark.
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I do too...and you know how I feel about my yard. 6" being the floor for DC would be a disaster up here. Not getting at LEAST 6-7" is a fail, imo It would be the same dang thing that's gone on for 6 years and I am so over it, smh
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Yeah I don't trust this thing to produce warning level snows right now. Until the bleed east stops, I'm lowering my expectations of breaking the streak.
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Well that would be unfortunate...but again fitting the seasonal trend.
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Even if there has been...it's better we not know--that would only add to the obsession of weenies everywhere, lol
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While I'd take it verbatim...I am a little concerned at where the low part of the goalpost ends up. Now if this is it...I take! 6-10" I take but somewhat longingly. But I can't help but wonder if it just keeps going further se than that as we get closer due to some missed phase or something. I mean things have deamped and favored s & e all winter when we got close...
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Same bro (I'm only 34 but now I gotta keep it real short to cover it up...I ain't giving it up yet, lol)
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I think that's why there's a but of a skewed perception. Folks like me born early 90s...we got a foot or more every 3-4 years from 1993-2016. The current (hopefully soon to be broken if all goes well) 9-year stretch is the longest of any of OUR lifetimes. So it's taken a bit to re-adjust that expectation, imo
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That's right brotha! Too bad that doesn't seem to apply to hairlines...darn it, lol
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I think some are worried that it trends further down in a future run since the CMC burped. That's the only anxiety that partially makes sense...
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Maaan I was away from my phone for a few minutes. Seeing the posts, I thought the snow maps were gonna show what the CMC showed! Instead...it still has us at a foot. So uh...if that's the floor then I mean sheeeesh y'all.
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I remember mixing worries with Jan 2016...lol (guilty).
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It's cave - i.e the GFS caving
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Brother, when that happens, focus on the One that truly matters
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Given the potential, I'd vote for 0z tomorrow. That way we can have another full cycle of model runs just to make sure, lol
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They're probably gonna wait until tomorrow.
