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  2. Flow snow is fickle. Elevation helped a lot last night too.
  3. I would tend to agree Don. A warm month is likely in my opinion, the question will be whether it's like Jan and Feb (+5 to 6) or muted somewhat by bouts of cold say +2 to 3
  4. Wind and rain in Portland. Most area stations in the 1.5 - 2" range and wind gusting to 45 at the Jetport
  5. Euro retains at least 30 degrees of turning from 850 to 500 mb, and some runs it's close to 45 degrees. Speed shear is pretty much a given. If that directional shear verifies (tendency to get more uni-directional toward the day) and holds it could be a significant severe weather episode. Probably mostly Deep South though, not really our region. At least south of I-40. I was supposed to give up storm chasing for Lent, to keep me out of early season junk. Hmm, what else?
  6. yeah most of the time, anyway. Heh. I'm just happy we are making baby steps to comfortable, outdoorsy weather. Convective fun is still a ways off..besides your chase
  7. I’ve been staying over at my parents’ place in southern Campbell county, and all we got were patches of a very light dusting.
  8. Yup me too after the following weekend...sledding will be done for me for the season after next weekend. And on to hopefully a decent spring here-god hope it's not as bad a spring as it was a winter here??? County gonna get hit hard today and tonight...8-12 coming up there...just in time for my Next Thursday trip :-)
  9. its certainly snowing hard...but at 1600' we are just about 400 feet below where accums really ramp up IMO. im at 33F here at Glen House. At to be honest, its beautiful and i'm glad there isn't a foot, it wasnt my wisest decision bc i have to work at 4pm in Lexington , MA lol but looks like ill make it safely. Crossing that area a mile or two south near 2200' feet should be noticeably more accums but this looks to end by noon and plows will be on it. My guess is the top of the Kanc at 2800' cashes in Every now and again the Wind just howls and we have curtains of snow just roaring by ....one of the best views of a hotel i have stayed at ...including all the ones in Stowe and in this Area. Probably have 2 or 3" inches of taters at that moment Edit temp just fell a full degree to freezing.
  10. Payback for a TOR "outbreak" a few weeks ago lol. I'm getting bored without anything substantial to track.
  11. What a dud. Even stopped snowing here in west falls.
  12. Those are three month average anomalies. Broad-brushing or imposing such anomalies on a single month can lead one to incorrect conclusions. The risks of error are particularly high in a month like March when the wave lengths are changing (shortening). Here's how things worked out for the first and second half of March for NYC (1981-2019): March 1-15, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 40.2°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 43.0° or 2.8° warmer than the mean for the whole period March 16-31, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 45.1°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 46.3° or 1.2° warmer than the mean for the whole period I don't think it's any surprise that the EPS weeklies (and I expect the evolution to continue when the newest data becomes available later today) and CFSv2 have now moved aggressively toward a warm March outcome. One need only look back to late January/early February to see the perils of ignoring or discounting critical details. Discounting what appeared likely to be an exceptionally strong AO+ regime for February led to some forecasts calling for severe and sustained cold to develop. At last word, the severe cold that was touted over social media by some never materialized. Instead, cities such as Philadelphia, New York, and Boston are about to record among their 10 warmest February cases on record. The warm February was not unexpected. It was not unforeseeable. In tennis, it would be the equivalent of an unforced error. A similar situation now exists concerning March, though the changing wave lengths make the forecast more complex. Nevertheless, it's a higher confidence than usual one. IMO, pointing out such matters is useful for learning purposes. The general lesson is that one needs evidence that is reliable for drawing sound conclusions. While such an approach won't eliminate forecasting error, it can reduce the risk of error.
  13. The limits of radar - it's essentially all IP here, 1/2" of mess, roads are not pretty, plow truck in the ditch in town. P&C revised from 5-9 down to 2-4, from warning to sub-advisory in one fell swoop. Oops, just switched over to (mostly) SN, probably as those 30-35 dbz echoes arrived.
  14. Coming down pretty hard as winds turned west/SW and some more cold air filters in. Shouldn't last long as the back edge moves through, but maybe a quick inch or so. 33.2F
  15. Im more concerned for whiteouts from quick hitting squalls. The extra 1-2cm will be a nice stat padder but its more dangerous how that 1-2cm falls in 10-15 minutes as the squall passes thru.
  16. Hows the GFS looking going forward?
  17. one rumble of thunder (per the husband, i was asleep) radar showed snow over my area around 230, but saw no evidence of it when i woke at 5. just cold and windy.
  18. 36.1F Mixed rain and snow. No accumulation
  19. When we really get into summer and start forecasting convection 5-6 days out at least we know that will happen and pan out.
  20. Gorgeous in Maggie Valley! @Maggie Ace What's the chance Catalooche opens the Meadows? Friday night should over achieve, I hope.
  21. It's made central air conditioning somewhat essential around here as well. Houses built in the 50's-70's around here often did not have it b/c it was not needed.
  22. I ended up with 6" on the nose here in midtown Toronto on my snowboard, seems to line up nicely with other reports in the area. Chance for a glancing snow squall sideswiping us tomorrow, but I am not expecting anything too exciting. The gusts this morning have been impressive though, some snow blowing around off buildings.
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