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Yeah it’s nicer than I thought it would be.

As a fellow plant lover I’d appreciate SD’s 10b/11a plant hardiness zone over our 7b, but you’re right about the rain, I’d actually take our warm half of the year over theirs.

Yumm Smokey Bones is delicious

63 and partly sunny at Bryant Park. Gorgeous afternoon.

Pocket Pool

Nice sunny mild day. Take!

EWR hit 90 yesterday? wtf

as a former, and probably future SD resident, yes weather wise it's a bit boring, but you're close to some really cool things, snow in the mountains during winter and the crazy thunderstorms out in the desert during summer. your home just happens to be in paradise

Nothing really overnight and typical remnants IMBY this morning. Got 1/3" total. At least it is wet. Might get something this afternoon; we'll see. Overall pattern seems active but not seeing much exciting for my area yet but tis the season of leftovers

This is may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast. I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

GFS ,CMC and ECM .50-1.00" this weekend NAM/ICON prefer the drought with .10-.25"

That is one aspect that I nailed...I confidently called BS on that. However, we are beginning to reach the point in the solar cycle that is very favorable for potent PVs. We can maybe squeeze one more season before its up uphill battle for a few years in that respect. I would be pretty suprised if next season isn't somewhat better than last season, but that isn't saying much. The cooler oceans should help a bit.

Operative word being "almost"...I don't think they are entirely useless, but its clear now that you can't just rip and read these analogs from 20+ years ago. Agree.

But this is even worse because it is like looking at the WB version of the CMC only and not other versions of the same model (CMC) that are very different and make more sense (more believable). Why very different SSTa output from the same model even exists is mind boggling. They should be similar.

RGEM went from the driest to this....

The woods around me are still fairly wet. Not a fun walk with the dog this morning.

Last truly cold eastern winters were 13-14 and 14-15--it's been a unmitigated torch since then with the occasional cold snap or snowy pattern like 20-21

Crazy. That would be like using the CMC only to predict weather and not looking at any other models...

Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias. Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off? @snowman19

Between my childhood and ~ 2000 ... I never saw snow in May. I've seen it now 10 times since 2000. That's what I mean ? I'm not refuting what you're say, re the four seasons of New England: Summer, Autumn, Winter, Butt Bang Like I said... it's hard to parse out which is which in terms of quota in the question of 'how much of this is just our climate vs being exaggerated by CC' - speculative on this latter point, of course. But just imho I don't think the hockey stick climate acceleration in the last 25 years, vs the sudden frequency shift in odd-ball late cold so pernicious that we have busted virga cu packing pellet flurries like it's Thanks Giggedy in May, is merely accidental.

Would be so boring there....most exciting part of the day is guessing when the fog burns off...

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

He doesn’t care and he knows that the majority of his weenie base doesn’t know any better. They just keep forking him over the cash. He’s a snake oil salesman, laughing all the way to the bank

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back?

True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.