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The last time OK had a high risk was of course May 20, 2019. I remember this product I think it was from SPC called "Violent Tornado Index" (VTI) or another derivative - I can't find anything like that now. SPC experimental products page has nothing currently. Its not this: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/

First time since 1965 and 1943 that Newark had a 90° or warmer high and a max under 55° during the first week of May. So plenty of contrast between the warm ups and back doors. Most other years had 80° days either side of the 90° day. Our last El Niño to La Niña transition in 2010 had 6 consecutive days over 80° to start the month. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2024-05-01 79 2024-05-02 90 2024-05-03 66 2024-05-04 62 2024-05-05 54 2024-05-06 M 2024-05-07 M Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2018-05-01 83 2018-05-02 90 2018-05-03 94 2018-05-04 88 2018-05-05 76 2018-05-06 67 2018-05-07 75 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-05-01 88 2010-05-02 90 2010-05-03 84 2010-05-04 83 2010-05-05 81 2010-05-06 80 2010-05-07 74 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2001-05-01 87 2001-05-02 92 2001-05-03 91 2001-05-04 94 2001-05-05 78 2001-05-06 64 2001-05-07 59 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2000-05-01 69 2000-05-02 68 2000-05-03 64 2000-05-04 71 2000-05-05 87 2000-05-06 90 2000-05-07 94 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1986-05-01 82 1986-05-02 60 1986-05-03 57 1986-05-04 65 1986-05-05 85 1986-05-06 91 1986-05-07 77 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1965-05-01 73 1965-05-02 74 1965-05-03 68 1965-05-04 91 1965-05-05 63 1965-05-06 78 1965-05-07 53 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1955-05-01 66 1955-05-02 66 1955-05-03 69 1955-05-04 83 1955-05-05 91 1955-05-06 72 1955-05-07 71 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1949-05-01 68 1949-05-02 71 1949-05-03 79 1949-05-04 83 1949-05-05 94 1949-05-06 93 1949-05-07 82 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1943-05-01 51 1943-05-02 64 1943-05-03 73 1943-05-04 59 1943-05-05 73 1943-05-06 71 1943-05-07 90 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1939-05-01 62 1939-05-02 62 1939-05-03 57 1939-05-04 71 1939-05-05 79 1939-05-06 88 1939-05-07 91 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1934-05-01 67 1934-05-02 69 1934-05-03 62 1934-05-04 70 1934-05-05 89 1934-05-06 90 1934-05-07 83

As well Happy Belated Birthday Blizz. and to your son MJS!

This weather reminds me of summer 2018. Hope we don't end up with that again.

12z soundings… FWD highlights the boundary layer moisture that will advect north/northwestward: AMA gives an idea of the deep layer wind profile and EML advecting eastward through the day:

ay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong synoptic-scale trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies, through a low over northeastern UT, then southward to the international border near the AZ/NM line. The main 500-mb low should pivot northeastward toward the Black Hills and deepen by 00Z, with trough northwestward over central MT and southward across eastern parts of CO/NM. A basal shortwave trough -- now from central CO to the Four Corners area -- should swing northeastward then northward, reaching southern SD, western NE and eastern CO by 00Z. This perturbation then should shift northeastward, possibly merging with convectively generated vorticity over NE and SD this evening and tonight, and reaching eastern SD, southwestern MN and IA by 12Z. A weaker, but still influential perturbation -- now over parts of southern NV/northern AZ -- should make a net eastward shift to parts of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle by 00Z, reaching southern KS and northern OK by 12Z. Associated substantial height falls and DCVA should remain over and north of the Red River Valley through this evening. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure was analyzed on the 11Z chart over eastern WY, with Pacific cold front across eastern CO and northeastern/north-central NM. A dryline extended from the front over southeastern CO to eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos region, and should mix eastward to southwestern KS, eastern OK/TX Panhandles, and west-central/southwest TX by late afternoon. The cold front should overtake the dryline across the central Plains through the afternoon, then over OK overnight. A developing/synoptic warm-frontal zone was apparent from southeastern WY across central KS to southern MO, and should move northeastward to the lower/mid Missouri Valley through the period. The southern warm front -- demarcating the northern rim of a richly moist Gulf airmass from outflow-modified air, was drawn near the Red River from the Arklatex to the southeastern TX Panhandle. This boundary will shift northward through OK and much of KS today while becoming diffuse, and possibly catching up to the northern warm front. ...OK, Southern KS, Red River region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the dryline, near the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK line or 100W longitude into southern KS, then strengthen quickly to severe levels as they move eastward. Given the already very favorable parameter space by late afternoon, and increasingly so into early/mid evening, the concern is high for at least a few cyclic, tornadic supercells producing multiple significant tornadoes along potentially long paths. The threat for such tornadoes, as well as very large/destructive hail, will be maintained well into the late evening, and may even increase as hodographs further enlarge beneath the LLJ. Some uncertainty lingers as to how many such supercells will track across the outlook area, but given the unusually favorable environment and increasing confidence, a "high risk" outlook is warranted for areas between roughly the I-40 corridor in OK and the US-54/500 corridor in southern KS. Compared to farther north in KS, the environment will feature slightly stronger CINH, very rich low-level moisture (dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F), lack of frontal forcing (mainly dryline instead), and more orthogonal mean-wind/deep-shear vectors relative to the boundary. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled the richly moist and deep boundary layer that will be shifting northward across OK today, with mean mixing ratio of 15 g/kg. As low clouds erode in the moist sector from west-east, diabatic heating will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over western/central OK and southern/ central KS, and contribute to greater potential for discrete supercells to develop and last a few hours before potential major upscale evolution to lines or clusters this evening. Hodographs will be favorable for tornadoes soon after initiation, and enlarge further ahead of the activity with time. Effective SRH commonly around 200-300 J/kg is expected late this afternoon and 300-500 J/kg after 00Z, amidst strengthening LLJ and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 45-60 kt). Effective-layer STP in the 5-12 range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. Stronger MLCINH and weaker large-scale support will contribute to lesser storm coverage with southward extent over southern OK, though significant tornadoes and damaging hail may be possible from any that form. The corridor of favorable buoyancy will enlarge eastward this evening with continued moisture transport/advection, helping to maintain surface-based effective-inflow parcels well eastward into the Ozarks and vicinity to maintain eventual upscale growth, possibly linking with the southern part of QLCS activity sweeping across the Missouri Valley region. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop as early as midday to early afternoon over portions of western KS and southwestern NE, where CINH will be weakest, as the southern part of the front overtakes the dryline and impinges on a rapidly destabilizing/moistening sector to the east. Initial supercell mode is possible, with tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail and damaging gusts all possible. With time this afternoon into evening, a more quasi-linear storm mode may evolve as the influence of frontal forcing increases, versus some component of flow across the boundary. As that occurs, tornadoes still will be possible, and the hail threat will transition to severe wind with eastward extent. Some significant (near 75 mph or higher) gusts will be possible as the momentum of stronger flow aloft gets transported to the surface, with increasing forced ascent along the leading edge of the complex. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread a northward-narrowing sector across much of KS and NE today, contributing to peak/preconvective MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, as deep shear strengthens, and hodographs extend, while maintaining favorable curvature.

The mood is down in here today ( apparently ... heh ), because in being slaved to photo-electric effect, the brain circuitry misses the direct sunlight thru the warm air we were promised on people's faces this morning. If it were 64 already with warm sun corpuscular rays beaming thru the morning buddy trees of May and all that, we'd be spinning things more optimistically - understood. It could be ... vastly worse. May 2005 makes this look like a Hawaiian get away.

A tad cool this morning at 34 but will end up another beautiful day with a high in the mid-60's. Northern lights were visible for a second night in a row last night although not as vivid as Saturday night. Another shot at rain starting late tomorrow.

Happy belated birthday Blizz! My son turns 4 today as well.

other than later today and tomorrow, this wk looks like ass up here.

I used to feel like summers were so long when I was younger. Now they are woefully too short. Blink and it will be Labor Day. Blink again and it’s Thanksgiving.

My target area was Enid so this lines up with what I suspected unfortunately

Broyles, but with Edwards. This morning it looks like the HRRR is slowly nudging a bit to the NW, which could be good for OKC. With that said, it also hints at a confluence band of storms attempting to fire by mid-afternoon, just west of the I-44 to I-35 corridor. Forecast soundings show minimal convective inhibition by 19-20z over central Oklahoma, so that’s plausible. The main action will probably initiate west of there near the dryline. It seems like there’s always a curveball or two, but we’ll see. I still think the northwest to north-central Oklahoma area is in ground zero, pretty much no matter what happens. It’s a little more conditional near and south of Oklahoma City. Hopefully the 12z suite gets into more agreement with details.

Jesus Hank Christ. Is today the day Moore is finished off? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

Wendt/Darrow did the 0600Z SPC OTLK and specifically mentioned that an upgrade was possible... and they deferred due to some lingering uncertainty... so...

Caveat Emptor: It appears to be (in part) a Broyles production...

You can go ahead and expand this perspective into the total arc of human evolution. Climate has been a modulating force on migration pathways and establishment depots during all three major migration events out of Africa. This is known yup. No one asked me but the only thing stopping me from going elsewhere at this point is loneliness - ha... I don't want to to commit to any such venture, by my self, and have to start over at my age. Interestingly, there is this new reverse aging technology. Apparently it's working in mice. Like they've cracked the code of death. They've taken these mice that are geriatric, and reverted them back to svelte and virile. Solving problems and getting phone numbers from the babes in the other cages. If this were somehow scaled up to humans? Yeah, given another 70 years of good looks, intelligence, and hot girls, might make it worth the while Lol. Most of my erstwhile life I was on the tolerant side of this New England's time stealing season known as spring. I was tolerant because I had a kind of tacit agreement with nature: you get to violate my will to live in the spring, because you're giving us big winters. It was a willing trade off. Besides, albeit rare, some years would turn balmy, early, and stay that way. And usually, July is still coming whether spring liked it or not - we'd get at least a couple of months of that 80+deg, golf and beach nostalgia. But lately? Winters are a root-canal, while summers are becoming too submerged in DPs mixed with "continental B.O." - I don't know what you call that polluted miasma we've been getting in recent summers, but it's causing these black mold blooms like red tide in the house. Summers are becoming eerie. And springs seem to eat later and later into summer. The deal is off! Taking time away from higher sun angle time of the year and eating into the warm season, while our winters are increasing sucky. That's another reason why people migrated from the Brit Empire ... taxation became unfair. ... Without winters? what's the point. It's a good thing the climate isn't changing I keep getting post cards and cold calls, and texts from strangers offering to buy my house, as is, ...dinner plate departure, for cash - meaning you drop what you're doing and just give them the keys for X amount of dollars. Literally, 'no cleaning necessary. Leave the furniture ...', etc. A lot of people are getting those around me, too. I guess most of the population doesn't give a shit what the weather's doing because I'd-a thunk a climate frustration triggered diaspora would lower real-estate demand I dunno. Point is, I can probably get out here if it got bad enough - but where to go? Cloudy, 53 .... supposed to be 71 but it's cloudier than modeled as a last minute adjustment - go figure.

oh wow...yeah I see the MCD

Happy birthady

And high risk in Oklahoma and Kansas today

Marginal risk tickling my fanny for Wednesday!

High risk coming on 1300z SPC OTLK Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Central...West-central and North-central Oklahoma Into Far Southern Kansas Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 061212Z - 061315Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to High Risk will be done for the upcoming 13Z Day 1 Outlook. The following areas will be upgraded to High Risk. DISCUSSION...Central Oklahoma North-central Oklahoma West-central Oklahoma Far Southern Kansas Please refer to 13Z Day 1 Outlook for detailed reasoning. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

Low of 58 and currently 59/58 with a thick warm air advection fog. Two-day rain total of .95". That, and the ideal growing temps ahead, will have the mowers humming this week.