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Pretty decent general read on the MJO from NOAA last winter- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/madden-julian-oscillation-has-been-active-so-far-winter-here-why-it-matters
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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
dmillz25 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Meanwhile it’s raining here -
It overwhelmed because the Nino was a late developing, weak, diffuse, POS lol. That's one explanation. As for why the MJO was persistently strong/active, hard to say with certainty. I am no expert but warmer SSTs and tropical forcing/convection in specific areas of the Pacific could act to "interfere" with ENSO state. You could also look upstairs over the tropics. QBO phase maybe?
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Returning back north?
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
NorthHillsWx replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out -
September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
NYCweatherNOW replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Thank Goodness it’s dry this time of the year, you’ve got the best weather of the year coming up enjoy it, we’ll get plenty of rain once it really cools down in mid October! -
12z Euro 2m temps. Saturday 87 Sunday 89 Monday 92 Tuesday 88 Wednesday 96 These temperatures are for MDT. Rainfall looks next to nothing. Hopefully Euro is wrong!
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The 9th level of hell, actually. But I already decided a month ago Im not staying here...just quietly wrapping things up...
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Rainfall doesn't look to improve anytime soon. From the afternoon AFD from Raleigh... Other than a stray shower pre-dawn Wednesday across the western zones, precipitation chances will remain near zero through the period with high pressure jockeying into place overhead. The next chance of appreciable rainfall holds off until early to middle of next week thanks to the approach of a cold front from the northwest.
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GSP supposed to be 82/62 today with average temps dropping every couple of days. We ain't been CLOSE to that! Our 30 year averages are going to skyrocket once the 80s drop off and we figure in the 2010s.
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Rainfall percent of mean over the past month
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Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".
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That sounds like hell on earth.
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What's the margin of error for these measurements? Is there any significant difference between the 2007, 2016, and 2019 extents or is it a statistical tie?
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I'd say we've earned this upcoming cool air damming episode after this summer's beating
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Thanks for your work in setting up this fun site once again. Will we need new usernames and passwords, or will the ones from last year still work?
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
Iceagewhereartthou replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
I'd love to think summers were too short! It really is amazing that going north just 500 miles can be the difference between endless winters and endless summers. Crazy to think such a short distance makes that much difference. -
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019
NorthHillsWx replied to Upstate Tiger's topic in Southeastern States
One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry - Today
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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
dmillz25 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
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What caused the MJO to overwhelm last year?
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Lots of amazing beers - too many to mention and nearly too many to remember! Of note: - Hidden Springs: Double Barrel-Aged Fuffernutter Black Aggie - Aslin: Castle Hill - Horus: Coconut Crown and Hazelnut Crown - Voodoo: Black Magick (Double Oak) - Sapwood: Galactic Burst There were plenty more I did try (particularly barreled stouts) - and I definitely missed some great ones - but I did the best I could with what my body allowed me.
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Fall is normally beautiful here. If we're lucky we can get 4-6 weeks of open window weather.
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This HP centered over TN has been relentless. We havent had rain in so long, the vegetation is severely wilted, the ground has been baked dry and big cracks are forming, the trees are losing their leaves due to drought and heat stress. We just keep baking under 100 degree heat. Such a turn around from all the river flooding that was ongoing when i first moved here in March
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Pretty much right on cue with my open house night. Sept 26. It will be warm
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simple enough lol
