All Activity

The 33° to 34° average temperature from EWR to ISP in December felt much colder due to the strong winds. Plus we have become accustomed to Decembers closer to 40° since 2011. But it would have been a little warmer than average by mid 19th century standards. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 39.7 39.7 2025 33.2 33.2 2024 37.9 37.9 2023 44.3 44.3 2022 38.3 38.3 2021 44.5 44.5 2020 38.0 38.0 2019 37.6 37.6 2018 39.4 39.4 2017 34.6 34.6 2016 37.7 37.7 2015 49.8 49.8 2014 40.1 40.1 2013 36.9 36.9 2012 41.1 41.1 2011 42.5 42.5 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 31.9 31.9 1872 24.7 24.7 1871 28.4 28.4 1870 33.6 33.6 1869 32.9 32.9 1868 28.2 28.2 1867 26.7 26.7 1866 30.7 30.7 1865 35.2 35.2 1864 31.9 31.9 1863 31.4 31.4 1862 32.7 32.7 1861 33.6 33.6 1860 28.8 28.8 1859 29.3 29.3 1858 32.7 32.7 1857 37.0 37.0 1856 29.8 29.8 1855 33.6 33.6 1854 28.8 28.8 1853 32.8 32.8 1852 39.7 39.7 1851 27.2 27.2 1850 33.8 33.8 1849 33.1 33.1 1848 39.9 39.9 1847 36.3 36.3 1846 31.3 31.3 1845 27.6 27.6 1844 33.0 33.0 1843 33.4 33.4

winter was done by feb 1st. best we could do was an ice storm and a rain noreaster that downed power lines. but it was an epic four weeks....

This us what could have/cause February to not be a flower February.

let's phase this and we could get the biggest storm in years

Where are your videos?

You know how it goes at longer range on guidance- always spread/uncertainty, so don't expect to see the snow maps lit up on the mean. Since we aren't going to be in a 'good pattern' for another week or so, maybe stop looking at snow maps at D10+ and expecting to see digital blue over us, then having a hissy fit when you don't. At least keep it out of the discussion thread.

Another good write up regarding the disappearing La Nina IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO LA NIÑA What this chart is showing is a series of strong westerly wind bursts across the western and central Pacific, and this is exactly the kind of atmospheric signal that I said earlier this season would start working against La Niña and help bring it to an end. Under a typical La Niña background state, the Pacific is dominated by stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds, which drive warm water westward toward Indonesia and allow colder water to upwell across the central and eastern Pacific. That cold-water upwelling is what sustains the La Niña pattern, but this is what I believe is now beginning to change. When we start seeing repeated westerly wind bursts like the ones highlighted here in yellow, the atmosphere essentially begins to flip the script. These westerlies weaken or oppose the trades, allowing warm water to surge eastward across the equatorial Pacific. That process triggers a downwelling Kelvin Wave beneath the surface, carrying a large pool of warmer-than-normal subsurface water toward the central and eastern Pacific. Once that warm pool begins to surface, the cold anomalies tied to La Niña lose their foundation and the pattern starts breaking down, and this is exactly what I’ve been talking about for quite some time. This isn’t an isolated blip or noise in the data. It is a structural shift in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system. The more frequent and sustained these westerly bursts become, the harder it is for La Niña to maintain itself, and in my view, the system is now gradually transitioning toward a neutral, or potentially even a weak warm-phase background. I’ve circled the yellow westerly wind bursts on this chart, and I want to be very clear: these winds are now observed and are happening right now. This is not a forecast. These are current, ongoing observations. In my opinion, these westerly winds should be the nail in La Niña’s coffin. I’ll go a step further. I believe that after this week, La Niña will no longer be the dominant background state in the Pacific. What we’re seeing here is one of the classic mechanisms that brings La Niña to an end. The atmosphere is no longer reinforcing it. The atmosphere is now actively working against it, and the Pacific is already responding. There is plenty of winter still ahead, and within a week or so, you’ll begin to see that reflected in the pattern.

It's all good. You are right though... I used to get somewhat defensive in the past. I get you though. Feel better ( just got over a nasty one myself ). Just in time to go back to work after being out since Christmas eve!

Most of us were lucky last month to get a few minor snow events with cold temperatures and even a borderline moderate snowstorm despite the lack of any classic coastal low tracks. Now we are seeing some back luck with an unfavorable height field forecast out to the end of the mid-range during a peak snow climo period.

Everyone I know was or is sick. Terrible shit going around. Hope you get better soon.

TBH, I like Feb for the sub. It's going to be something to watch unfold. It could end up be a rather wild month.

It would be nice to see some southern stream activity get going. None of the models have any of that showing up in the future. Without that, we'll be similar to the cold and dry like Jan-Feb 2025. But as long as northern stream remains active, we can get some clipper action

That 0z Euro run was essentially the prophetic manifestation of Lucy and the football. Didn’t mean to call it so soon. Not getting discouraged yet, especially since modeling is struggling more than it has in recent years.

System Jan 9-10th still in the gov model eye. My modelling method is showing potential for that time, so someone is going to get hit pretty good it's looking like at this time. I think the best I could hope for is some LES action. But we also have potential svr wx on the S side of this as well to contend with. Very Spring like system again.

digital snow on the models is important unless the pattern doesent support it. Then you know its a one off. However, when we are in a good pattern, seeing digital snow whether it verifies or not should be something that pops up on almost every run from one or more of the models

Smoke em if you got em?

Surprised to see some new snow otg. Keep the faith Kevin-you may be on a nice heater-looks like we possibly will have another muted torch. Hey snowcrazed-I was poking fun at everyone yesterday-hope you didnt take too much offense. Besides, recovering from a lingering cold has made me more salty than I like to be.

bam is doing everything it can to save face

this board has never been fun when we are not snowing in the winter? When have you ever had fun in the weather side of this board when its been dreadful on the weather map

My opinion on that may not be well received here. Things are not as they have been in the past. The oceans are vastly altered in temperature and currents. These new variables make the long range more unpredictable. Models are struggling with it.

we have wasted 45 days of below average cold and nothing to show for it. You should hate it here

thank you.. ya started a few days ago and today seems to be the crappiest so far.. of course I'm on vacation this week.. great way to start it

Great post.

Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends! Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup

Well, the notorious part has been more notorious the last 10 years--I think that's the problem. Personally my base expectations were formed by being raised from 1990. A good foot or two every 3-4 years with suckage in between just so happens to be what occurred from then to 2016. But this period of time is the least snow for the longest period of time anybody in my generation has experienced. I have adjusted expectations now--but just wanted to give some perspective.