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Sunday morning looks coldest in NYC metro most have seen in their lives… Once in 50 year level potential with this. 0F in CPK is conservative. The bias is to take UHI and +5 vs guidance but the in situ cold and winds will mitigate those affects. Very relieved personally that the axis of cold is about 250 miles west of here. Binghamton NY flirting with -20F before wind chill is holy shit level cold for our latitude.

This post made me look closely out the window here in Hagerstown. I've seen a few mangled flakes, but this air is super dry this morning so it looks like mostly virga. Maybe those slightly better returns out west of me are doing a little better?

Sure does !

Sign me up!

Latest Google whatever it is model from WB's JB post. Day 10.

AIFS ensembles still like the 15-17..

3-6/4-8 is fine . Add to pack

@CAPE WRT AIFS ENS There are only 2 members that have any snow at all from the lead wave next week. The median snowfall from Saturday evening to Monday evening of PD weekend is about 3-4" across our area. The mean is closer to 5". The split is about 30% of the members have a VERY big storm with a classic 95 points NW MECS/HECS signature. Then there are another 20% that have something pretty decent...2-4 to 4-6" type storms...a few members have something very minor and about 40% have absolutely nothing. It was an improvement over the last 3 runs and got us back to where we were 24 hours ago when I made that post showing how "interesting" they looked. BUt yes...the total mean is inflated some. BTW, they are interested in your window too...the median spikes up another 1-3" during your period and the mean about 2-3" which is significant for that lead time

Plan to hike Shenandoah on my way home to nova around midday. Hopefully have some luck at 3000 ft

It did on 1/25…no?

Heavy snowfall probably around in inch so far.

If a few inches is ramping up sure.. It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south..

Yeah I'm not seeing the current snow showers on the radar on any of the short range guidance, interesting to see if it hits the ground.

Yeah I didn’t see anything on my walk/run to class

All virga.

12z NAM is better for us in NOVA. I can't help but laugh at this forecast: Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a light and variable wind becoming northwest 19 to 24 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -11. Windy, with a northwest wind 29 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

I'm OK with just some flakes flying around. Headed up to Schwenksville tomorrow just about the time the front comes. Weird feeling nervous about leaving the house, but I'll only be gone 24 hrs. I'll get a text if the power goes out. Fuel gauge is on 1/2 tank. Stay warm folks!

Some light OE with sun here now.

Reflectivity

22 degrees and clouding out here in Swoope (Augusta County). Still waiting on snow to start.

that bigger snow event we had recently was STJ driven. You could see it coming across the Baha up underneath a S/W opening closed low as it ejected through that area. It slid up NE over the cold dome... the rest was dopa hits -

Mean salary?

feels like we've been stuck in this pattern for ages though i know the city got lucky and got 2" of rain back in january

We've been looking at a 1-2 inch range, maybe 3 in an isolated spot to fall over like a 12 hour period. That still looks reasonable so not sure it's a "dud". Even if it ends up on the lower side of the range its still within the expectation. The more "steady" light snow wasn't forecast until late morning / early afternoon, then we see a lull until the cold front blows through. I do think we've seen a slight push for the better totals to the South and West over the past couple days, but these things have such a narrow area of "jackpot" totals its not surprising to see that move around.

You're in a good spot up there - South Mtn just to your east should help squeeze more out! Cloudy and 20 here