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I’m not entirely sure the GFS isn’t just windshield wipering. Will wait for 12z before final judgement

Looks like WoR and higher up to me. You could get a couple. Models wavering a bit as to where the band sets up.

Honestly should not be surprised this is cancelled, but you have to laugh. All those teleconnections Ray referenced. Just bent over.

Yesterday I was hoping to break 20 inches for the season by Monday, but that looks like a long shot at this point. Hopefully Saturday is more than just white rain.... Knock on wood, but I feel like WOR has been pretty lucky with these meager systems this year

Berks and wrn CT

Good luck

Unfortunately, we have reached the time frame where the physics-based models outperform the AIs.

he’s got more than you on the season lol…or very close to it. Time for you to go to sleep I think.

Let’s pound me town down a few

At least I won’t have to be out snow blowing for Ray and Jerry

Yeah as long as models don’t yank the rug on qpf .1-3” is certainly likely here . We’ll track it.

Probably best to stick with a personal rule of not getting invested until 3 days before the event - just like the old days. We've seen models, especially the GFS and its ensembles, show something good at 5 days and we think it's "in range" only to have them pull back at 4 days. I also think that maybe the balloon launch cancellations out west are having an effect on the models at the 4-5 day range.

Unexpected 2hr delay this morning out here. Roads look slick. Grass almost covered. Nice little surprise. Looks like Saturday popped back up for a small event too. Looks like winter

19 this morning and a trace of snow.

Yup ...and some will say my snow vibe is negative. It is what it is. Positive thinking ain't gonna send winter 2010/11 walking through the door.

Saturday may be an inch or so? The issue is snow ratios are not going to be good….likely less than 10:1. The boundary layer is going to suck, it’s going to be in the upper 30’s even up here where I am. The new EURO/EPS didn’t budge for Sunday

Seen this movie before.

In winters of Yore.

To give weenies false hope.

Currently getting a rain/snow/graupel combo... I think. 39.7F

I average around 28 inches. It snows here.

My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation

Small details make all the difference, the energy was a little flatter on 6z GFS and that really affected the outcome. If only it could look like the 6z Nam, that's the best case, neutral/neg a lot sooner.

You’re in NYC. You should be asleep Nov-Mar.