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Wow MAV is ugly for Thu morning. Maybe it’s sensing a little rad cooling before sunrise? CON 21…EEN 20…BML 16

GFS up to it's usual unique talent to wall off warmth from getting N next week... That huge ridge at mid and upper levels .. yet it somehow engineers the means to keep a cool E flow from ORD to Boston

Orioles have called up Kjerstad https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/orioles-promote-heston-kjerstad-top-prospect.html

Cracker of the Day 2024 Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

High of 65.7 thus far, 64.9 currently

Great post, PF. FWIW I asked TK about Jay as their 171" seasonal total on 1/16 sounded high. So I asked him (online) if they have a set spot or not. "They have three set spots. Not sure of exact details. But I have been following along for decades and this year some of the estimates actually seemed a little low."

ahh gotcha, agreed.

Point was we’re probably staying mixed. If anyone actually radiates in the valleys, like the Xmas trees in Fakersville, it could get ugly.

Unless you were copying and pasting a weather app.. this week always looked like sunny and mild to warm Monday and Tuesday with a one day mild down Thursday and Friday rebound with some fake cool nights. Whenever the sun is out this time of year you add on at least 5 degrees to machine numbers .

Why do the Southern greens not get as much upslope? I mean that plateau in Woodford area is substantial. Even though it's lower elevation, it's wider than the northern spine which you think would wring out more moisture.

I was wondering how much CAA would factor in. I looked quickly but it seemed like the strongest CAA was moreso during the day than at night? I don't know if it's worth it or not to see how they fare across portions of Wisconsin/Michigan tonight, if anything just a general idea of how they performed in relation to guidance. Looks like the brunt of the airmass though arrives more from Canada.

TLDR - It's sort of comparing apples to oranges depending on the snow reporting method. Old school ranges or single site snow cam or plots. Ski Areas around the region are sort of a mixture of both methods.

There’s going to be wind Wed night. CAA sub 32s.

Hopefully a very, very active month. If not, we've got month after month for more chances!

I know this is a sensitive subject and what I'm about to say is not accusing anyone of misleading or trying to be higher or market snowfall more. Smuggs has moved to a more controlled snow measurement with a branded measuring spot I've seen posted a few times. I think that's what you are seeing there. To me, Bolton stands out much more than Smuggs on that list. Did Bolton get almost 100 more inches than MRG this winter? Really think about that for a second. That's 8 more feet of snow, the snow depths must've really reflected that too? I have personally seen it happen at Stowe and truly believe it to be the case, that if you are doing the old school estimating snowfall version of Snow Reporting (just skiing around, finding a general 8 - 10 inches depending on where you are, and then always adding the higher value to the season total) you will have a noticeably larger season total over time. It isn't wrong per se, and skiers/riders won't find it off because they are skiing sometimes in 7-8 inches and sometimes they find some turns with 10 inches of new snow. But you are taking the deepest amount found in any storm and adding it up over time... and those deepest places are always in the same spot though depending on wind direction. Look at the ski areas that have gone to a more controlled measuring... Sugarbush has their stakes and cams, so does MRG. Smuggs looks to have pivoted to that direction from what I noticed the past couple seasons. We've gone that way at Stowe too. The two locations I have yet to see a consistent measuring site or some sort visual proof of like a plot or spot are Bolton and Jay. Again, this doesn't mean they are fibbing or making things up, but just going about it the old school way. But you'll see their numbers stay in-line with the old school numbers, which are a bit higher. An example is for those who have ever worked in Operations, say you call Ski Patrol to ask how much snow has fallen? You are going to get a range as an answer every single time. Just like if you asked any skier or rider. How much snow was there? Oh there was 6 - 8 inches out there on the hill. Sounds good. And it's usually correct that the snowfall will be in that range as one skis around a mountain. However, what if you only measured from one specific location or two specific locations? All the sudden the place you chose to represent snowfall shows 6.5". Now you are deciding to report 6, maybe 7 if you want to push it, but not 8 that the old school method would be. Take Bolton... when J.Spin goes up there he usually finds the reported snowfall in his wanderings around. But I'd be curious what that snowfall might look like if he went to the same exact location every single time. Maybe he finds only 7" at the designated spot because the storm came with a strong east wind, but skis around in the woods on his tour at some other aspect and finds 9" or 10". Old style would say there was 7-10" of new snow (maybe even 6 - 10 inches), but now the 7 would get recorded in the annual tally not 10. There is a subtle difference that adds up over time when talking about dozens and dozens of snowfall reports over a season. The larger the snowfall range I see from a ski area, the more likely I know they are going old school and estimating. Unless it is a highly marginal elevational storm with slop and pow up high, 6-10" on a snow report is a forecast, not a snowfall measurement. If I see "24 Hour New Snow: 8 - 14 " that's just tossing numbers out there in a windy snowstorm. Synoptic events and even upslope won't give anywhere near that range even at elevation. Synoptic events I've noticed are often very close between elevations and summits. The lift is occurring in the mid-levels. There's no reason for a large range of more than an inch or two. But occasionally we see these big ranges on snow reports, but that's the old school snow reporting method. No one will convince me otherwise, but there is a total snowfall difference annually between the old school estimated range method and any mountain that goes to a singular specific location that shows just one number and one number only with no adjustments. I believe we are seeing it happen with Smuggs now too, corrects downward. Old school snow report ranges of snowfall does capture a mountain's snowfall well in each specific event in my opinion, but will lead to compounding overtime as it is always taking the deeper value and adding it onto itself. As opposed to taking one number from the same exact location or two locations all season, regardless of wind direction, nuances, etc and adding that up.

Wouldn't be surprised if the high terrain of northern Vermont picks up a few inches of snow tomorrow.

Well into the 60's, AWT. Glad we didn't doom and gloom this week away like some did

Looks like 12z guidance ticked a few degrees warmer for tomorrow night? At least across a few locations. I guess it is all going to come down to if we maintain enough of a wind to keep things mixed.

America's WNBA'er

Grab a rake and some long handled loppers and have at it

I see you Steiney

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

Good point! Burn on! I actually don't mind fires unless they burn down someone's house or hurt someone. Brush fires are natural and should occur.

This is crazy...and I hope I can write this that it makes sense: Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever jersey had more sales on the day after she was drafted than what the entire Dallas Cowboy's roster worth of jerseys sold for the entire 2023 NFL season. Dallas had the #1 selling NFL jersey (Parsons) and the #5 selling jersey (Prescott) - and even with that... for the entire 2023 season, there were fewer Cowboys jerseys sold than Caitlin's Indiana jersey in one day. (Source: ESPN radio)

Stein is tip-toeing through the tulips and slowly moving in.