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GFS annihilation

Ukie looks like its in the Amped camp now as well. Wait and see how it translate to the surface

Really just the GFS... it could be right, but I am leaning into the closer range stuff going forward

Updated

This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance.

Me too. It is brutal.

It’s too warm! Look it has 20” of rain over me

And the GFS AI which has Not been sniffing this one, says I’m In at 12z.

Holy Mary Mother Of God

It’s cause Central Park got 3” In December.

Won't be much sleep this week...

Insane 3-4 qpf now showing up

cmc that's the best case scenario for us! Biggest blizzard of our lives possible!

Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley.

This would be our biggest rabbit out of hat event in years if we get the storm spacing and phasing to work out just right. The general storm signal continues to grow. But it’s tough to lock in details around day 5-6 when so much can change between now and then.

For now. Let’s see what mesos do tonight. Clearly, it will be a narrow band either side of the Mass Pike, rough call for forecasters.

Begging people to not get invested in a late season Miller B to get a major winter storm. It's more than possible but unless you're north of PSU its not worth it to get invested till we got the track down to an atypically south storm! Hoping it works out for you guys but we've seen how this normally plays out!

CMC...

Would drop 8 in DC, 18 in Baltimore, over 2 feet for some at the M/D and up in PA. Kuchera. Similar 10:1. Most of VA gets skunked unfortunately.

Don’t think you could draw it up much better.

weenie me now but I honestly think this is coming north and will stall off the south coast before it heads out... top 5 incoming just has that look!

I thought the 0z OP runs were high end... 12z runs going wild.

Consistency this far out is quite good.

Typical model progression GGEM robust

CMC is a bomb