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yeah, I think the QPF ticking down is moreso a function of losing some of the super-super amped ones, but on the whole they congealed pretty well further west. Now we just need to get to work on the "more north" part

I'm not backing down yet. I still think it's coming. The Canadian is fixable. The gfs continues to improve even though it's a total trash model. The ukie looks lost. The Euro needs to show something by 12z tomorrow or the threat is in trouble.

Trends cannot be ignored…

The UK is headed for Bermuda.

There are 2 types of ass models. The GFS is not the type I like.

My hopes for snow in ATL just got carushedddd before bed

Honestly GEFS is a tick better than 18Z again, QPF aside...the mean and spread has moved west once again.

WB OZ GEFS compared to 18Z. Nice tick N!

Normal for Ukie. im riding the GFS here

1/28 00z GEFS total mean QPF

Close enough So we can all get a bomb…that’s what we all want.

I was just about to comment on this because of the higher amounts being much further north now

0z GEFS

i was noticing the same thing--what the heck

This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though. I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.

I mean 12”+ for Long Island is not out to sea but sure

Need another step west coming up from the euro. It did it at 18z. One more here be great

How big of an outlier is the OP that the mean in southern VA is less than DC / NOVA? Interesting

it got me aroused for sure

Any thoughts on escarpment for this one? I’m thinking of chasing, but have a long haul. I’d be Right above the parkway near 226. Looks like it starts to drop off pretty quickly around the escarpment… but still has potential for 6 plus?

No doubt. Get it close enough for a shot at mid level magic.

GEFS looked great. 6 am comes soon. Going to call it a night hope to wake up to good news about the euro

oh sorry i forgot your 12