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Love this

I’m sure to get to -19 we had snow on the ground that would be interesting. I saw today in center city our heat island is well in effect as weeping cherry trees were flowering and blooming.

Wonder if this morphs into a stronger storm Saturday night with that one being the main event while MLK just shears out.

Its way west of its previous run. Still gives New England a blizzard.

Same with the GEFS, with a slightly better look than EPS with the more DS S/W tilted a bit more negative, it has been trending better. Though the GFS/GEFS/GFS AI/GEFS AI have been the most on board with this system thus far. The member spread is consolidating a lot, though the mean snow hasnt really gone up, theres just a lot more near-misses or slight misses in there now.

I’m surprised it’s not a site your jurisdiction automatically blocks. As a recently retired math teacher, I wouldn’t have a problem with it, but if I needed assistance helping other students, I might ask for your support.

Was hoping for better but this has a ways to go. No sampling and we are mid-day Wednesday and this is a Sunday event.

There is an axiom on these boards that it's wise to go with the least snowy model in the mid-range. So that would be the 12z ECMWF or 12z ICON. Seems reasonable to me.

Well the GFS only has one day 4 bust so far this week, so it's overdue.

Ukie has a lot of something

I'm hedging along that route, Going to need something more to change my mind about anything more widespread, Eastern areas have a shot though.

It’s not that winter is over. It’s just simply that models have gotten way worse in handling Nina winters with the low pressure placements and movement and even if any low forms at all. They never really could handle Bs and phasing for our region .Too many parts apparently to sift through. On an A, run an already raining low over Atlanta into cold air over us. Easy, no real moving parts and infinite variables. Last night a 500mb map jumped 800 miles in 6 hours. This is not science, its patchwork example giving .

Nope lol. Maybe it’s(Euro)right..and zero snow.

While we need the blocking for something big, I don't think any here are lookin for a big dog on this one. He's right, it is still a progressive flow, but this one is all about the trough axis and how much it can dive in to push this up the coast and slow the eastward progression. Many here would take a 2-4" scooter up da coast, and be just fine. Point is that trough axis is the key to the snowy promise land on this weekend. Not enough dig, it slides off the carolinas and we smoke distant cirrus here.

No judgement, but wondering how are you able to post so often during school? Are you on a phone or laptop?

It's a fair question. I'm often on my school-provided laptop, so when I finish my work I usually pop in here.

GFS and CMC have a little something too.

There on all guidance but particularly noticeable on euro.

grass was almost halfway covered this am... does that count?

Lesson 1. GFS is trash Lesson 2. Review lesson 1

CMC Ensembles look decent for Sunday.

it was the year i purchased a full on down parka from ll bean....which i did not need till 1994, at which point i had gained a few pounds.....my wife wore it....

another heartbreaker up here...what a major disappointment in middlesex county. there's a reason its forgotten, alright....i think we had 5-6. which is fine, but not when the apocalypse was advertised....

Good news, PNA is finally trending up in the 11-15 day! 6-10 will be moderately negative but not extremely so.