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For all you clown map whores, here’s the Model Ratio snow from the HRRR. This is better than Kuchera as it takes into account more variables and verifies better than Kuchera from experience. Nice run for many.

42.6F here in the District highlands.

Only one that I can see that's specific to this storm. Not sure if the one out in the Pacific is going to be adding anything.

Quick question. When is the snow supposed to start? Asking for a friend.

1978 must have been like a 1 in 100 year event or something. 1888 and 1978 are the only two events that come to mind where 40-50 inches was measured in multiple locations for SNE. So maybe later this century we see another one.

Ahhh yes I see it now.

Hrrr verbatim looks like a lakehurst jack so Ill take that. 31.3 inches “oh the humanity!”

Howdy neighbor! Just east of you in paradise, pa.

Ban.

My forecast is 6-12" and grid is 4-7". I think concerns about temps tomorrow is very warranted. It's late February and not early January. Unless it's ripping it will not do a lot during the middle of the day even at 32.

Might be very Boxing Day 2010-esque how a death band sets up over NJ.

Yep and best banding will set up northwest of it most likely. .

Still snowing at 21z on the HRRR lol .

I must admit I was not expecting to be at 36 right now. One thing that seems to be coming clearer is that this is likely to extend well into Monday morning and perhaps even start a bit later as far as snow in earnest. Can't see how the schools don't have off Monday. It's NAM time.

staying up for the NAM then bed.. hoping when I wake up at 3 models trended great

I can't believe every single run is a bomb! Are we ready for NAM bomb like #12?

At the house in DC right now it's 44F. At the house down in Calvert it's already down to 37F. A good omen, going back down there in the AM to make final preps. Going out to the cabin at DCL on Thursday, they currently have a WSW for 6-12" so I think I'm gonna get my snow fix no matter what.

Ralph can I ask when we say it’s still snowing at this frame does that include Lehigh/Berks etc?

NYC: 17 LGA: 17 ISP:23 JFK:20 EWR: 16

First post. Long time lurker and previous member of other weather forums. Writing from Lancaster, PA - right in the middle of the county. Tough forecast here but seems NWS has it about correct at 6-12" but could still boom or bust depending on the western edge of the deformation band early Monday. Our low guidance is about 6" Euro and high is about 16-20" on short range NAM/RAP/HRRR. The latter three all rotate bands deep into PA as the storm bombs out. Hope you DC-Balto folks get your snow. Seems a broad 3-8" but lots of boom or bust scenarios down that way as well. First obs: 31.3 here, dpt29. Clear skies. Will prob climb late with some mixing and cloud cover.

lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased. I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models. The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it

The HRRR of course epic if you choose to believe this

Interesting how essentially every model has consistently had that Monmouth/Ocean county jackpot for a few days now.

Breaks are good. Not saying that in a nasty way. They just are actually good for sanity. Tonight is a good time to get some rest now that I think of it. Arguably better prep for tomorrow than staring at models until your eyes spiral.