All Activity

0.00" yesterday. Major fail given the forecast. About a half inch for the month so far, on top of half/less than half of normal rainfall the last 3 months. Drought status may be upped here this week. Was already pretty close to Extreme. I'll keep running the sprinklers for the plants. Grass is toast, clover hanging in there.

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

I only had .24”. It skirted NW with the heavy precip

There were some pretty nice lenticulars over Yancey and Mitchell this morning...and what a perfect weather day it's been! 61 today. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Thanks! STP noted this morning they’d be looking into damage reports in York/Lancaster where that cell traveled. Friend is ok!

Influencer/mlm is more toxic

Thanks JNS. Thought you may be the one to know haha. Well, that stinks. That site had been one of my main daily go-to visits for many years. A great one-stop shop. Ugh.

It will be nice to get rid of celebs once we’re onto AI movies and music.

Is there some aspect of it that you were looking for mostly I could probably guide you even further Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Apparently there was a sasquatch. sighting in the neighborhood that I'm working in. They said that it's wearing an orange shirt and a black hat.I looked everywhere.I think these people are full of s***.

Especially impressive for daytime highs with several locations having a record hot first 2 weeks of June, including Islip and Newark. Looks like a little break coming in, but I do not think we are done with heat. Personally, I think these summer cancel calls are way too early.

It's because they took it out to the wood shed and discontinued the product https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-34_AR_ER_WR_RTP_Discontinuation.pdf The screenshot there has your best chances to find a replacement Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Generally when you blend a record strength 500 mb shortwave with a record strength surface low, you're going to expect some pretty anomalous outcomes assuming moisture is available, which it looks to be.

Beautiful day with temps hovering around 80, and dews around 50.

I think the drought might be completely ended in a lot of Georgia by next week if this tropical low moves through as predicted

Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday! It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.

I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE! This is now Invest 90L: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

Also a large 45%

Zoomed in view

Sure we are This weenie notices down to the last second and it makes me happy to know soon we'll be heading in the right direction (Fall)...

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. A potent shortwave on the southern periphery of a much broader upper low over Canada will track through the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. This will force a highly anomalous area of low pressure to track across the eastern Great Lakes. In fact, this low could potentially break all-time minimum sea level pressure records for the month of June across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan as it tracks through later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most solutions have this low tracking across southern Ontario and Quebec at around 985-990 hPa on Thursday. An unseasonably strong wind field aloft will accompany the highly anomalous low, as 850 hPa winds climb to around 30-50 knots and 500 hPa winds increase to in excess of 50 knots. Low-level south to southwesterly flow will also draw a hot and humid airmass north into the area. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 80s and 90s across the bulk of the forecast area, while dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s. This overlap of a very hot and humid airmass with highly anomalous winds aloft raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. It`s still to early to get into the finer scale details, but soundings show an environment that is very favorable for the production of damaging winds. SPC currently has the entire area outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy, potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph even in clear air. The combination of heat and background winds will be something that we don`t experience often here in the Mid-Atlantic.

SPC expanded the enhanced north and east:

AI music kinda hits. dumb youtube won't let me upload as regular without adding filler

Record low slp