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As we wait for 12z, here’s 6z for mby

We always have to thread the needle. I do feel like we will see a flatter weaker system over the next day or two and then, I feel like on Thursday models beef back up again. Right now you have to stick with ensembles and the GEFS have not moved much from each other the past few runs. Ens over OP for the next two days.

Thank you for posting this, because i felt like i was being gaslit by the UKMET. I saw it come out fully for 12Z then i went back to check and only 6z was there. Now like 10 minutes later its coming out again? What the hell is happening, am i going crazy?

Late Saturday overnight or Sunday morning

Euro has begun....good luck.

KMA looks similar to Ukie

overheard at grocery store: > "8-10 on Friday and 10-20 on Saturday" > "they're calling it the storm of the century" Now, I wonder what AI slop weather page on Facebook came up with that

Oh yea Dec 09 was tier 2 compared to Feb 10.

HP in NY state vs. Ohio

It clearly will miss, missing us

Get the arc of significant overrunning to OH and PA inside 84 hours on the CMC, AIGFS, and EPS-AI, and I'll be a believer in a big event. Until then I'm on guard for wave interference and a non-ejecting ULL.

You're not a deb, you're raising several legitimate issues. As others have said, this event has ingredients incorporated that other storms have not had: favorable MJO phase, southern stream energy, strong boundary. Caution is certainly advised, but this is the best snow setup we've had in years.

Wait a minute, maybe he's the Pope!!!?? Lol

The UKIE did run on Pivotal but somehow crashed off after I'd seen it already. 12+ over the midstate. The pivotal map may include sleet on the 10:1, not sure.

Being in the foothills is so fun. I’ll literally take anything at this point. But, we’re so close to historic territory. We need the Baja low to beef up the precipitation but not too much interaction because it leads to mixed precipitation. But, if we tend weaker, we lose the precipitation and the cutoff becomes too close for comfort

You’re not wrong, but I have a hunch the cold air is overdone. The better gfs runs show ~1040 high instead of near 1050. Chicken egg thing…is that causing the Baja low to spin itself out or is the low shearing out allowing the hp to overwhelm. I’ll let you know next Monday.

Damn, you're worse than me. I get annoyed when the GFS is on board, but I ain't crashing out about it. *but yeah, the GEFS does make me feel better. Shhh

Completely understand but at some point dry streaks end. Perhaps this is it

This is not a northern stream event so no. If it kicks out that energy it’s game on.

We haven't had the MJO shift to Niño phases until now.

The trend today has been to slow the timing down. Friday night start time here has turned into Saturday afternoon on most modeling

And I also agree with @PrinceFrederickWxabout @Roger Smith, who has put more effort into running contests and compiling statistics than anyone I know.

This map from Pivotal must include sleet and ice unlike the WxBell maps. It's significantly higher, and probably more realistic given the likelihood of significant sleet accums on the southern end of the snow band.

So it's basically GFS vs the world again? Got it.