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I'm done with every model. I'm just gonna watch the birds and see what they do.

Updated

Ahh. Too soon I guess

I'm done with the GFS this year.

Did they recently update? I saw they gave us a WWA though, down from Ice Storm warning. Hopefully that means less ice than expected. I feel like yesterday the short range models had us almost immediately going over to sleet, now it looks like our area will get at least some light snow tomorrow afternoon. Maybe get on the board for the season on accumulations

Looks like they were added at around 8pm

It was just strange that all the other models were higher and this was the lowest.... But I wasn't aware it was very conservative. Thanks for explaining

Precip starts around 7:00 am in NYC and earlier in Philly and picks up rapidly pretty fast. Yes especially driving toward Philly will be crazy by 10:00 AM.

Initial thump colder and heavier precip

Seems like multiple studies disagree with each other. One I read/skimmed said that if we have a freezing layer of 3000+ feet below the elevated warm layer it’ll refreeze to sleet regardless. Just such an extreme setup to where it all breaks down.

Can someone post CMC kuchera? .

GFS is the kicker for the Bills next weekend... Wide Right Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Hopefully you're right. I highly doubt we jackpot around here in this type of system, I can definitely see it for I-84 corridor to Boston.

Umm cmc backed off though southern sections nodding to Nam

I tried that for sleeping and all it did was make me worry that my basement was going to flood.

Something is wrong with Pivotal's Ukie algorithm. The 18z and 0z 10-1 snowfall totals are much higher than the qpf would suggest.

17/-7 in Havre de Grace

GGEM looked good, not as good as RGEM but solid. IMBY it has 10" of snow at 10-1 then probably 0.3" liquid as sleet so that would add another inch.

Yea, over Bermuda.

Might be some virga for an hour or two, but this is going go to come in like a wall.

Thought your last word was viagra on first read. Sort of made sense in context.

When are we expecting this to start? How am I looking for a Sunday morning commute from NYC to Philly. Obviously the earlier the better but is it going to get crazy by 10AM?

Awesome use of AI! So perhaps the NAM is not as north as we thought. More in line with the 3k .

I think this may be most CMC has shown. For all AGC.