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I know it's a silly point forecast but how often to we have that high POPs this far out plus highs barely out of the teens. Gotta be a strong signal.

These can be deals where you get a big fronto band on the northern edge (convergence/stretching of parcels) so I wouldn’t count us out yet. EPS AI seems to agree with the “op” AI

I worked with Tomer when he was DTB at WPC…this is incredible coming from him…..but he’s not wrong imo. Do I think it’ll be the same magnitude? Probably not, but impactful to a point of major impact potential? Yes, it really could be. This is a pattern where it might not be just one system we are tracking. The teleconnections tell the story. This is the lineup for Mid Atlantic storminess. Details be damned, but this is truly a pattern where there will be a ton to watch over the next 2 weeks. Prep that coffee and prepare for cold weather, at a minimum.

Yes it was. You’d go moderate to heavy for a few minutes and back to light and then rinse and repeat a few times.

12z EPS is a Dream Run for NC/VA.

AIFS-EPS likes that idea

anyone have the kuchera euro ai clown map for the whole run?

They both sit on these things until it's obvious. I kind of get NashSevereWX's hesitancy as they are entirely social media based and crowd-funded, and when stuff doesn't go to forecast, they get absolutely hammered.

Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.

So the rear squalls verified well. HRRR did a great job. Was it bursty like snow squalls?

Climo is climo. I can't buy the 12z euro for 1 simple reason. It would be one of the top 5 biggest storms in history down this way. Idk if this is the kind of setup for something that historic. Blizzard of 96 was 24" in Roanoke. Feb 2014 was close to 20". A 15-20" storm is quite rare. Imo, the DC area is more likely to get 15-20" than central and swva. That said, my yard is in a pretty good spot and I'm pretty fired up over the potential.

I love Ruth Chris (hint hint). Oh i’ll pick up the check too. Hope the snow will have have melted by March.

EPS trend gif would help visuals

Threads created for this weekends storm. .

BAM weather is dying for a NW trend , you can tell he is bias for the north lol .

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2013321433670144421?ct=rw-null .

So you got your 6" and that breaks the 6" drought for Weymouth. Happy dayZZZZZZZZ are here again!? LOL. I don't want to hear it from you anymore. This winter is turning out pretty good now, esp, since we just filled the "snow hole" area in parts of RI and ern MA and given recent winters. And it will be *preserved* well for the next week being so cold except Thu, but some melting will actually be good b/c it will refreeze *hard* into a glacier block. Have lemons, make lemonade! But wishful thinking? CoastalWx already I bet: "The pseudo-Miller A this weekend will miss SNE and may give Norfolk VA its all-time record snowstorm. Why can we get that here???!!!"

good sign: https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3mcril3p4522p

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me.

Thursday's model runs will be the make or break for guidance. Most of the players will be within the upper air network in North America, and I'd be my bottom dollar that NOAA will be running extra planes for data sampling.

Lord…. .

These can be deals where you get a big fronto band on the northern edge (convergence/stretching of parcels) so I wouldn’t count us out yet.

There's a chance

This winter like most winters I would prefer to be on the northern fringe until 36-48 hours beforehand. This winter it's gone down to 12-24 hours. Most of our huge storms have followed the same pattern. Tonight and tomorrow I'll see what I can dig into regarding forcast days in advance and north trends just to confirm it isn't confirmation basis. The other interesting feature I glanced at was that the swing from bad luck to good luck seemed more often than not to be a pretty big storm. I want to put some quantitative numbers to that though. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Incredible Euro run. In agreement with GFS, too. And the models that are further north continue to shift south. This is looking great for most of NC.