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As I said, we are in an active period of the AMO that favors increased HU activity in the Atlantic, so of course in the last 25 years it is more common. Why wouldn't it be? This active period started in 1995. 1970-94 was a suppressed period overall. And going back to the 1950s and 60s, technology did not allows us to detect rapid intensification as well and the true strength of many HUs (decent satellite coverage did not exist until about 1966), so that made it all appear less common then despite in an active period at that time.

Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May

Yes I have noticed that. When Helene's eye was completely inland about 1 hr after landfall, they still had it at 140 mph (same as landfall). No way. Friction acts immediately and bring down sustained winds quickly, and it is apparent only a few miles inland. What a HU is assigned for winds when the centroid of the eye crosses the coast is valid over water only.

Anthony, Thanks for posting the DT update. 1. We don’t even know what the QBO is doing anymore thanks to you know who. But, based on where it was early in 2026, there was very little chance that it would be W based this winter. 2. I think that the usefulness of Judah’s SAI is questionable.

Agreed and that’s what is great about foliage, any rolling topography covered in color is awesome. Your area of NE CT is top tier, always loved going to the lake in the fall, the quiet corner. Fields, hills, rock walls, barns, foliage.

I'm in peak winter mode. Worried about waking up tomorrow with a spotty or mostly empty radar then seeing the dreaded crawl on TWC, "winter storm warning canceled".

DT https://youtu.be/ZOpnMAt0OhQ?is=39sId3hYh73xhO1Q

I look at @LibertyBellas being the Superman of efficiency, which I can appreciate. However, if someone who wrote one of the 100 posts whom LB replied to wants to reply back, wouldn’t that be a mess? I mean one of my posts (about baseball 8th-9th inning comeback chances) was in another massive reply. I was going to reply back, but never did because of the mess. I guess I could have copied and pasted just the reply to me, but I was too lazy. I don’t think a single person in that position has ever replied back! So, I’ve figured out why LB does this. To minimize replies back. And that’s part of being a Superman of efficiency. Right LB?

DT https://youtu.be/ZOpnMAt0OhQ?is=39sId3hYh73xhO1Q

Maybe it’s just a lot of olds that have nothing else to do . I’ve just never understood it when you have the same in your general area

The thermocline could potentially reverse which is something I’ve never seen before.

If you're really into it, it is another level of scenery up there, but for me it's not worth the crowds/traffic and the leaves down here are just fine.

Strongest El Nino on record normalizes the normal La Nina in the equilateral Pacific

A lot more rainfall coming in for yall tonight.

Torrential rain now

So high the color scale goes to white! +12C

I get the mountains aspect . But there’s decent hills and smaller mtns in almost every state other than RI

A double hit in 6 years by a storm named Isaias! Got up to 71 after a low of 48. Currently 62 with dp 53.

I can guarantee that methuen would cease to exist if #15 verified...

I bought an extra cord of wood, since I ran out last winter and I refuse to use any oil this winter...bank on a way above average winter this time around. My lack of elevation where I live will pretty much cancel most of the snow this winter, especially if most storms end up borderline temp wise.

To get out of Jersey????

I’ll say it is certainly increasing and foliage traffic seems to be getting worse and worse. Last weekend and this weekend are Stowe’s busiest of the entire year. Like driving from Exit 10 in Waterbury to Stowe and the general area is almost impossible these weekends. It jacks up even on I-89 just to get off the exits. The Whites and I-93 seem similar from what I’ve seen. People go nuts for it… but there are colorful leaves everywhere. It is interesting to me that there are tons of NNE towns and roads with great foliage, but the people just keep pouring into the same areas. All that said, the mountain vistas are hard to beat with peak foliage. It can seem almost like a religious experience when timed right.

TS Rachel off Baja CA clearly post-tropical. Let me put it this way, if Rachel is still a TC, then Sandy was a TC at landfall. You can't have it both ways from an objective meteorological POV. The fact that rather strong winds and there is a TS watch up for srn CA is irrelevant as to what it is. And there are many winters where srn CA and nrn Baja get gale force winds and a lot more heavy rain than Rachel will produce here, so its not like they are not used to such conditions that are just like a TS. The evidence is solid. The intensity of the system is being driven by fast forward motion, a strong baroclinic trough interaction, and its proximity to the favorable RRQ of a 250 mb jet streak Winds over the system at 250 are 70-80 kt (ECMWF 250 forecast VT 10/21z attached) and the 10/18z SHIPS output diagnosed 700-500 RH of 36%. Frontal structure is apparent SE of the center (VIS image attached). Deep convection is lacking and the moderately cold cloud tops NE of the center are mid or upper level wave cloud ripples typically seen with turbulence from a jet streak (see WV image attached). Unlike Isaias' transition process right near landfall and its much better retention of tropical characteristics, esp. when it came to a large area of very cold cloud tops, Rachel's status now from an objective meteorological standpoint is post-tropical.

If you look at model guidance it’s where it’s supposed to be at. The rain shield really develops after 2am