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Oh yea seeing the grass tips penetrate through the glistening blanket of snow, so beautiful.

I see several Mets are apparently ignoring the MJO or not looking at it at all as they're continuing harping that the Pattern will flip to Trough in the West soon. I like Ryan Hall but, he's one for example. He doesn't even give a Reasoning other than bound to. Other's are basing on a Couple of Model Runs or an Alaskan Vortex. I agree the Vortex if gets situated in Alaska will alter the Pattern but not necessarily flip it trough west/ridge east. It could possibly flatten the Flow to weaker eastern Trough. Ryan and the Other's could be suggesting a short lived Flip of which is possible even with the MJO Stage and Greenland Blocking. But why not specify that ? I wonder if their bias is coming through or they're wanting their Winter Outlook to be spot on or just doing the what goes up , must come down. Anyhow, enough rantig on a Subject fitting for later lol. They may turn out right. Back to the main here and now Interest unfolding.

Yes, some of these could turn out to be better but it is a far cry from last year, We couldn’t even get pennies never mind nickels and dimes lol

Wowww congratulations Terp! Hey bringing him into the world the way of a snowlover Prayers for a safe delivery and a safe trip there!

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

Euro has RIC down to 27°F when the heaviest rates arrive between 3 am and 7 am. The daily snowfall record for RIC tomorrow is 1.8" from 1954. That could be in jeopardy. I don't think a new record low maximum will be tied or broken, but it'll be close. Models warm RIC to 34 or 35°F in the afternoon. Currently, the record is 33°F, also from 1954.

A bit of good news, dewpoints running a few degrees lower then forecast this afternoon

Congrats!!

I recall the Feb 16-17 2015 event being sold as a 6-10"+ event solely because of it was progged to have 0.3-0.5" of precip fall in a brutally cold airmass. That was around when kuchera was beginning to get attention, but come game time the snow growth was terrible and grainy, and ratios were much closer to 10:1.

So no snow threats now. Sweet

Salem, VA and Smith Mountain Lake looking good!

12/5 - check Weekend, sort of - check DC folks in a tizzy - check We are due - double check

Almost seems like each clipper subsequently enhances potential for the following one

47 here. We cooked.

This storm looks to over perform. Hope so!

Lot of nickel and dimes but it wouldn’t take much to get a little heftier on one of them. The Dec 11-12 could end up bigger.

Temp dropped -6°F once the squall came thru, 35°F down to 29°F.

Honestly, I usually start with the 10:1 maps and make some modest mental adjustments (up or down, depending on whether temperatures are marginal or solidly cold). The concept of Kuchera is good, but it's not as simple as a colder profile means better ratios, and I find that Kuchera runs outrageously hot in many cases when the snow falls at temperatures well below 32.

MRG opening Saturday with the Double and P-slope… though the Single has been spinning on the webcam so we may get some additional terrain added

Looks like a lot of opportunities next week on the Euro, Several shots at some snow over a 7 day period.

Decent little squall that seems to be back building

Stacking pretty nicely. Let's keep it going!

Next week is interesting too on Euro for Dec 11-12.

Retired After Last Use December had begun on a strangely toasty note. The temperature had climbed to a balmy 57° (the third time in the last five years the mercury reached at least 57° on the first day of December), and the New York Public Library, perhaps out of nostalgia, perhaps out of quiet defiance, filled the marble halls of its iconic Beaux-Arts Fifth Avenue building with sepia-toned photographs of children tunneling through drifts taller than themselves. The exhibit captured an era that residents increasingly believed had slipped out of reach. A public weather notice board calling itself "American Weather" had given the display a name that struck Marisol, a student at Columbia University, as both melodramatic and heartbreaking: “The Final Snowfall.” Walking home after a full day of classes, Marisol passed one of Midtown’s newest absurdities: a synthetic snow dome where wealthy Manhattan parents paid $95 an hour to show their children what “winter” once felt like. She never stepped inside. Those plastic flakes felt like an insult. Her father had always said that snow gave New Yorkers a common language of spontaneous generosity. Cheap plastic could never measure up. Almost four years had passed since the last daily snowfall of four inches or more. Even two consecutive snow-starved years had never occurred before. Four such years were unimaginable. As Marisol passed one of American Weather’s public boards, a small sculpture beside it stopped her cold. There stood a dented aluminum snow shovel mounted upright like a relic. At its base, an engraved bronze plaque read, “Retired after last use: February 21, 1929.” She felt her throat tighten. "Snow is something you can only remember now," she thought. Then came the second thought. It was a much darker one, perhaps from having spent too much time reading "American Weather" on her way home from classes. "Soon there will be no one left who remembers at all," she worried. Her grief was premature. Just over two weeks later, a storm swept across the City, dropping 6.7" of snow on December 17 and another half-inch the following day. Less than two months after that, an even larger snowstorm buried Central Park beneath 10.0" of luminous white. Today marks the 1,405th consecutive day without a daily snowfall of four inches or more. Pessimism mixes with fatalism. Yet New York City has lived through snow droughts before, even as this one is the longest on record. As happened in December 1932, the streak will break. Eventually. Even with supercomputers, AI-driven forecasts, and models capable of simulating the atmosphere down to microphysical detail, the exact date of the next significant snowfall remains unknowable at this time. Patience is required. But so is confidence. December is now on course to register its coldest start in more than fifteen years. That's a hopeful start. The arrival of the cold reveals that Winter has not yet forgotten New York City.