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I mean ultimately, it is what it is. NAM is still a hellacious thump of a foot before we’d “sleet”

You would not say that if it showed want you want.

NAM has a NW and amped bias. We toss. Would need to see other guidance trend that way before taking it seriously.

Same here, definitely. HRRR does tend to overdo things. Particularly when it's convective, as I've seen over the years. But even NAM, which is typically very conservative with any kind of overrunning convective instability (especially in these polar/arctic air masses), has joined that party. It's even been showing some significant 850Mb instability or LIs over ETX in more recent runs.

Nam what a awful run

Son went to fill his car up after i told him,he said 7-11 and Krogers had no gas..lol

Let’s get 4-6” for TAN

Oof, RRFS amped up at 18z. Need one of these mesos to trend better…

FWIW Notable differences at 42 wrt SLP placement. Like 500 miles off. One needs tossed. Can I pick which one?

Must have picked up on what's looking like this early wave break

I have no fear. The latest Mark model is in.

18z NAM appears to be the warmest yet. Sleet line up to I-80 and even at H60 is has sleet even into Boston. Seems like a warm outlier but cannot be ignored either .

It's a substantial drop from 12z but it's also likely wrong haha. If not.....whew boy.

Eh it was the Euro also that broke hearts. It was the Euro that first corrected but then the GFS did as well. I honestly think at this range the GFS is handling the storm better but we will see. Euro has had this storm on and off. It has it now. It's just suppressed.

Taint up to I-80 May need to revisit those Valentine's Day 2007 discussions

The NAM will change every single run to something else. That is what is does. Period.

I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways.

Flips us to plain rain! Awful.

HRRR is worthless for predicting band placement until it's inside 18 hours

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon. The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

Primary for the NAM was stronger. That allowed it to amplify a little more.

whoof..

Ya that's way north with the sleet line.. maybe a 18z blip