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So far it looks like it should at least hold from its 18z improvement I think. Still sorta does the Nam more connection with the low off western Mexico but seems like it should be fine for it.

Come on, dude...you know what he means. A big se ridge isn't how you get one.

I was on a Teams call today & one of the guys was located in Middletown directly across the street from MDT. I watched it snow heavily through his window on my screen between 9:30 & 10.

Looks like Icon will come north now, snow on doorstep at 60, strung out mess also

Rapidly changing back to snow now. Probably 80% snow and 20% sleet. Total accumulation still at 3.8" on the day but we should add a little to that now.

Finally flipped back to snow here in the last 15 min

SN, 23/22°F, Additional 1.7", Now up to 6.5" total

Look again… it’s predominantly snow or snow/mix until a little after 10 am…

This says freezing rain for most of the storm Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Soon my friend, hopefully you & the Lanco crew cash in on the next one! The pattern looks potentially active through the next week, so hopefully it won’t be long until we are back tracking a specific chance.

JB said he expects that wave Friday night to come further north then what is forecasted now. But he didn't say how far north he expects to go.

“MM” at the 5 pm daily climate report. We will need to wait until the overnight climate summary. Based on the the observations, MDT stayed mostly snow or snow/sleet mix until a little after 10 am. I think your call of 2.5 has a chance to be right!

Shocking because that usually works out (eyeroll)

Not really. 4 years running of good tracks without a good airmass to tap into. Cold first then track.

@John1122, these last two basketball games and football game....like watching it snow in New Orleans, man.

I'm actually not quite sure what goes wrong as I agree that on paper that what happens out west and to the north looks better with less push/suppression of the NS. My best guess is something happens either internally with the shortwave or the interaction between it and the low of Mexico causes its energy to become more stretched and further eastward based. Looking at it more the only real difference seems to be that the shortwave remains a bit more connected to the low of Mexico and there are slightly stronger H5 winds which as @CAPE pointed out hurts us by stretching out the vort. 0z wind map 18z wind map

3k NAM looked good at the end of its run.

Hi Res Nam is a little more interesting and colder

NAM still not showing much

I wish I could have shoveled.

Here’s one I like (sadly it only goes up to 2013) http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/Weather.html Gives me a nice trip down memory lane having lived through many of these storms. There are many maps at all levels of the atmosphere that shows the evolution of each storm. You’ll notice that the most powerful winter storms have a dual jet structure, where the low develops under the overlapping of both the left exit of one jet streak and the right rear entrance of another jet streak. Like double jeopardy. Rare, but truly amazing when it happens, and thats why they get so powerful. Look at the blizzard of 1996, perfect textbook example.

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong