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For those that don’t know, Tom lives up on Roan Mtn. https://x.com/tomniziol/status/2016856004009332761?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg https://x.com/tomniziol/status/2016856006039392447?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg .

I think it is an earlier generation of the AI models. I remember hearing about it more last year. But honestly not sure.

3-6 is a lot more than we typically get… clearly I’d love 6. I am trying not to take these runs too exact. It’ll make you insane.

I wish the trough was further west. Cold and dry look. Clippers?

Current: the "-54" is -5 for Hackettstown and -4 for nearby Mount Olive.

With the projected temps all of NE should prosper.

I just still am having trouble seeing how snow doesn’t get west to some degree . Maybe I’m vey wrong , but something tells me the final solution has not yet revealed itself

I will be fine if I go rest of season without anything else. Going on day 5 here with no power.

I fired up a Feb thread.

Hey @lilj4425- the moment a map is in our favor.... like in the history of weather, we read this. Haha, he could be 100% right and no doubt probably is. But it has been confirmed, the upstate of SC is the red- headed step child of SE winter weather..

-9 at MHT, only got to -3 here. had a bunch of deer tracks around my weather station this morning, maybe they were breathing on it and warmed it up a bit.

Stratosphere outlook is active. Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. Op Euro: Op GFS: If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March.

Look like a moderate spike in phase 8 to come

This is WRAL's first map. Brad P in Charlotte says the potential dry slots prohibited him from putting out totals last night. He said that a broad stroke map may not be the best in this case.

AI models much more enthusiastic about Feb.5 potential. Resembling a SWFE with potential transfer. Something to keep an eye on at least.

Still hope for some light snow as forecasted Northern/northeastern extent of precip is usually further NW of QPF.

One of those could really dig and become a Miller B with the +PNA ridge still there.

Welcome back to the tundra!

This storm was aligned with a spike in the AO which we usually want. Even so only gets to -2 which is probably aiding in the suppression.

I thought I was going to move to Russia to get those totals, glad I am not an impulsive person. LOL.

SREF looked great but I honestly don't know how accurate it is.

Low of 6 in Marysville

7-8 across the area at 10:1 rates

KEY MESSAGE 1...While significant disagreement remains amongst the deterministic and ensemble guidance, confidence is high enough to warrant the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for most of the CWA from late Friday night/early Saturday through Sunday afternoon. The main mode of disagreement continues to be the battle zone between drier air from the N/NW associated with a very strong area of high pressure (~1045 mb) over the Plains, and an intense low pressure system developing off the SE coast late Fri night/Sat. The GFS/GEFS is the NW outlier, wrapping significant amounts of moisture and QPF all the way into central VA, while the ECMWF/GEM are farther south and somewhat more suppressed with this moisture. The 00Z NAM is the opposite solution: almost completely dry other than in far southern VA and NE NC. One trend that continues in most of the models is a "piece" of the sfc high over the Plains ridging SE into the local area Friday into early Saturday, with low pressure across the eastern Gulf coast showing an inverted sfc trough extending north into the southern Appalachians. This has trended to an initial overrunning precip event (all snow) that could begin as early as Friday (but is more probably late Friday night through Saturday morning). For the piedmont, this portion of the storm may account for a majority of the snowfall. SLR values will be very high, 15:1 to 18:1 so even a relatively low amount of QPF could lead to a significant accumulation (which will be efficient on area roads given temperatures well below freezing). Still think the GFS is too far north with this feature (and keeps it maintained into Sat night even after the coastal low rapidly intensifies), so forecasted snow totals are well below what the GFS depicts over the NW 1/2 of the CWA. This is what really will make it or break it for most of our area..

It looks like we go back to a northern branch dominated pattern next month like we had in December