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He's gotten plenty right and plenty wrong. Basically he's like everyone else except he's the "anti-weenie".

I am an optimist at heart but I will believe above normal precip when I see it

yes-insane that there would be this much spread this far out

Solid 3-4" at home today. Brushed 4" off the car in Grayling. Kinda fluffy but freezing drizzle in the lower elevations was making the roads horrible and stuck to your windshield making it hard to even see ahead. Worst winter stuff!

You don’t say? For like 9 days out it’s all over the place? That’s crazy!

OP euro might actually have ticked a little better.

so he got one storm right in 10 years

Most all of my ground is frozen so stickage commences quick

Still holding to my .5" to 1.5" tops forecast out my way. Think the WWA of 2-4" are overdone where they are in effect for NJ counties. PERHAPS 2" in spots but the 4" I'm not buying into at all.

Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians.

Lucky roads?

I think it's going to be a fairly tight gradient between 2-4'' of decent snow and C-1'' of slushy crap...likely just NW of my fanny.

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary.

WB 18Z GEFS for 25-26 seems all over the place on whether there will be a storm and whether it will be wet/icy/snowy. Couple of snapshots for Sunday 1pm and Monday 7am.

WWA up for my area (Clinton, MA) with 2-4, but I'm not sure whether that's tonight and tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures--especially tomorrow seem marginal, at best.

Yup

Another tick north on the Euro

How long has it been since both the GFS and Euro matched 9 days out? Euro is actually colder and further south with ice.

Last time I saw snowman19 basically go all in was several days before Jan 2016. Ended up pretty decent lol

I only wish this on friends. Ask Mappy when she was worried about this past Thursday.

the EC-AI was about a 40-50 mile jog east, but actually not too different than its 18z/0z/6z runs from yesterday/today. 0z will be telling but its clear it won't head back in the other direction (west).

They’re learning that it’s fun to troll weather weenies

So it seems the AI models are learning, they're learning to come back to reality with the tried and true lol ( joking of course ) maybe things stay the course. Maybe they don't. I guess we'll know by tomorrow night what the final outcome will be for Sunday

WB EURO 18Z AI likes the 29th period for a coastal. (Not much for the 25-26).

I expect a rug pull at 00z to be honest. Feels like 18z is laying the ground work