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Lol ya me and wolfie are BFF's now

My idea for December was a very cold and a very warm period - worked pretty well.

Low of 24, much colder than expected.

Who knows if the 12z GFS is right or not. I certainly don't. But for the sake of discussion...if that cold front comes in at the angle and slow speed that it does on that run, that is prime for over-running sometime after the 11th. We have seen that repeatedly during the past few years with Nina winters.

My bad yes 100%

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around. Just need to time something up. What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days. But we all know how good models are from that far out. If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast. It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms. When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull.

The TOL and ORH hills down to Moosup do well on SW upslope . We’ve seen it quite a few times over the years

seems like they think there might be some slight upslope ?

Thanks! .

We snow

The January 3rd slider which is rain...The 12z Euro has frozen precip at higher elevations in the Apps and in SW VA(northern sections). Temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s most of that day. If that moves in at night...we could see some snow above 3000' IMHO...maybe lower. That is a sneaky system.

They the pros…meteorology not Modelology . They see something there…

The duration especially… thought it was a couple hours overnight?

That seems like a pretty bullish advisory given guidance...

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model. The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue. These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks. If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest. Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

Please remember to move your cars

Yep! Flakes flying in Exton as well.

Seymour baring his fangs. Wolfie showed him how after working out at Seymour’s gym.

advisory out.. should be another fun 4am drive tomorrow ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, southeastern, and western Massachusetts, and northern and southern Rhode Island. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snowfall amounts for the western hills of the Tolland Hills of northeast Connecticut and the western hills of Worcester County in central Massachusetts.

Here’s some info: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

Why are you engaging with QG? He hasn't been an honest actor since his handle was noreaster27 in the early days 12+ years ago.

BAM weather vid on YouTube is great.

You might’ve been reading something into my tone. I’m not defending a troll, just pointing out that the pattern might be similar to what he said. I think it might be briefly. I don’t have any knowledge really to make a forecast except to say that Jan 10 to January 24 it’s more likely to be cold and snowy for the MA straight up into NE. I appreciate what you do on here and sorry for any misunderstanding.

Yesterday’s 18z remains the high water mark. Still have time, but would’ve hoped for a little more progress from that point.

What’s TNH? I swear people just make acronyms up now. I hope we look into OPS+ and WAR. .