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60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms. It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast. Thats been a tendency now for a few years. For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period. Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models. The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

I can confirm! .

That look is exactly how the monster I storm happened in Montreal and NNE in 98. This time that would be over SNE/CNE

First flakes starting here. Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 of QPF, hoping for some denser 10:1 type stuff so we can build our base to withstand the next couple weeks.

6z Euro looked a bit north..hopefully we can get it back shortly.

Well...yuck: @MUweather I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

as per the norm, areas out in the hills reporting 6 inches, while we get half that here on east side.

Euro just further north as usual

In terms of surface weather it's mostly a miss with snow showers and C-1" with more in SNJ. But I agree aloft it's the closest I've seen in a few days to a bigger solution with the PV dropping into the trof and amplifying it almost to a neutral tilt.

0z and 6z euro looked a lot like gfs and ukie?

Closer than 0z

If you listen closely you can hear children crying as defeated middle-aged men throw wrapped gifts and a flame-engulfed tree out the window. I also heard what sounded like a hooved animal getting choked out, and some muttering about the Mansfield snow depth, maybe? Wasn't expecting that based on the title. Kinda wild, actually.

100% correct!!

The CMC and GFS at 12z are a great example of the conundrum. The CMC has the December 20th cold front. The GFS does as well, but it is more seasonal. If that Canadian Yukon air can find a mechanism southward, those d10+ forecasts could change rapidly.

Yeah, a three legged turtle race.

ukmet is a strung out southern miss! never really gets going after digging

Was a good 2-3 degrees warmer than expected this morning. Wasn’t expecting a ton here, but was hoping for at least a little slushy accumulation which definitely did not occur.

I think its the only stretch of road on the East Coast with a chain up requirement for Big Rigs.

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

At 195 on the CMC, the air over the Canadian Yukon is -79F. The GFS isn't quite that cold, but it is impressive as well. With that type of cold air sitting upstream, that is why we have to keep our eyes open.

Pivotalweather.com has it every 6 hours btw... as in 96/102/108.

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.