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Fantastic G.S.D. day. (Get Shit Done)

75° / 47°. Folks out enjoying a cold beer on an absolute stunner. *Excluding the kook from Connecticut and his red-headed stepchild

even though the mornings are cool but wearing a hoodie under the blazing august sun is starting to feel uncomfortable..

Might get another storm not just gabsy wabsy

kiko chan also we may get another storm not just gabsy wabsy

Fun speculation: The kind of cool August NYC has seen has typically been followed by 20" or more snow in most cases and 30" or more snow in nearly half of cases. Looking at the 30" cases following an August with a monthly mean temperature of 73.0° or below, 80% had seen 6" or more snow by December 31. In contrast, 83.3% of the seasons with less than 20" seasonal snowfall following cool Augusts had less than 6" snow by December 31.

This is in Huntingdon. I do not believe this is red year-round.

Followup: As a result of recently formed TS Kiko in the EPAC, 2025 is no longer the quietest Labor Day weekend tropically globally of Joe Bastardi’s lifetime. Why? Going back to 1950: -1980: no TC in EPAC, WPAC, or N Indian. The only TC was TD7 forming 8PM Sun in the NATL and lasting through Mon. Thus, 2025 now having a TS already beats 1980 globally. -1991 is debatable: -no TC in EPAC or N Indian -WPAC had a dissipating Harry, probably down to only a TD, on Sat, and a new TD on Mon -NATL: TD 5 dissipated on Sat -So, unlike 2025, 1991 had no TS+ but there were 3 TDs during the weekend.

Best stretch of weather I can remember in a really long time. Next 7-10 days looks great as well.

I thought the tutt is there already

Same up this way but I'm seeing some color in a few trees here and there. With how cool and sunny it's been, I'm thinking the plant life is confused.

Dropping here due to how dry it is

I think this first wave is most likely to be the beneficiary of a CCKW and may be early enough to avoid a developing TUTT. Anything caught near that will get ripped apart. The basin is still hostile and won’t change until the basin wide forcing changes with the cycling MJO. It’s almost September so I don’t think it’s a huge departure from climo.

Yo are the leaves already changing?

It ain't over till it's over.

fixed

we have a sure winnah.

I can buy some good cold shots this winter a lot more than I buy AN snowfall. Feels like cold+dry/warm+wet taken to 11.

Reached the upper 70s after a low of 52 here

August 2025 will finish with a monthly mean temperature under 73.0° at Baltimore. Here's the full distribution:

what the heck is going on in Groton, Corrupticut? lol what a shitty Mayor

Its departures are probably within reason though… that’s really what the official stations are useful for. Comparison to previous years. The temperatures may differ in spots by location, elevation, topography, etc… but the departures are probably comparable.

Pictures from preliminary WB Joe D'Aleo analysis; hope it's right!!!! I like the strategy of rooting for cold air and then see if we can time a low to move in while it's established. Note also WB is still watching the above normal water in the North Pacific to see what role (if it holds) it could play this winter.

Really, really dry august so far, I think based on the (incomplete) xmACIS viewer, this'll be a top-10 driest august for mt. pleasant. Can tell, grass is very brown and some trees are losing leaves a little prematurely. Hoping this mid-week system gets us a good soak, but I don't think it'll be more than a 1/4 inch.

I'm getting kind of pumped for this winter. The drastic change in the Atlantic is something we haven't seen in a while going back almost 20yrs. I think it's interesting that the greatest BN anomalies are basically right along the path of the Gulf stream going up the EC. This could be the beginning of our flip to the cold AMO which we've been missing since basically the late 1990s. Even with the Pacific in it's warm phase, having the Atlantic in the predominantly cold phase means we should have a much easier time lining up a cold phase in both basins. We could be looking at another 20+ years of Atlantic in the cold phase if it continues to cool and it's not just a fluke.