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Ginxy AI coming in 3, 2, 1…

For the people who are confused or don't know what potential means: 6z GFS: 0Z Euro:

.43" of rain. Wasn't expecting that.

I think he was laughing at me because I wasn’t there this morning....... 016578000124369-88-2-11192025071700-W1000496.mp4

Scooter says fake af.

PDO was -0.92 last update, IOD weakening as well.

fix your snow sig, it's 2025-2026

The EPS much like most recent winters is getting beaten by the GEPS/GEFS in that range in regards to that E Pac/AK pattern....the 00Z run is again trying to build a SER post D12 again. I think part of what is happening is the Pac is still progressive so the EPS tries to develop these wild storms like Panhandle hooks and cutters and the flow just is not allowing for that type of activity to end up happening. As a result, there is much less SER in the end. Also the GEFS have backed away a bit from the -PNA magnitude the last 2 days on the ensembles after D10. The most glaring bad news I see in last 2-3 days is the flow is still just screaming. You can look at the last 3-4 GFS Op runs alone to see how we went from dumping cold into the W to the dump now despite going E does not make it significantly far into the Mid-South or SE because the progression of everything. Until that problem goes away we ain't seeing any consistently stormy pattern for the NE or MA

Processes: Cannot circumvent checklists... pilots don't and they fly us successfully. I got a little lazy...circumvented processes. Saw the trend in HRRR/RAP/RRFSA prior to 14z/18 yesterday, accepted HRRR resulting in an F forecast. Global CMCE an EPS ensembles (GEFS, SREF and SPC HREF snowfall terrible) had the axis right which was near I80 but amounts below 2" on 10-1. That should have cautioned me on the 12z/18 verbatim HRRR post. ANDDDD when we're on the gradient edge of qpf, caution flag. I've grown confident in the ECAI but it failed miserably on the north fringe this morning and the EC OP through 00z/19 was lacking. 12z and 18Z/18 HRRR were very similar then I saw the 00z/19 HRRR drop back down to I80--wasnt sure it would hold there. It did. Bottom line: Follow processes ALWAYS inclusive of merging ensembles and being careful on the gradient edge. I sure hope to remember this lesson. Wantage Trace flurries and qpf... basically nil. Attached CoCoRaHs snowfall.

0.17" at the house 0.78" now for November

36° no wind, total sunshine. Perfect day to split some wood. Sign me up for a few more.

November is a winter month.

IF the 11/18 bc version of the extended EPS were to be right, you couldn’t ask for a better position of the MJO in Dec/Jan: just outside the circle in phase 8 (and very slow moving making it last longer would be a big bonus) is about the coldest on average in the E US as it’s colder than strong phase 8 on average (though there’s always lots of variation of course): if you asked me to place it in a better place and speed of movement in Dec or Jan I couldn’t:

If he shits his pants enough... it will be no matter the weather.

Black Friday may be white for wester/northers. Wet for rest. been consistently showing up, but normal caveats apply.

Ahhh good thought, I do still have that in there. I also need to remember to shut off the valve to the outside water faucet.

Latest (yesterday’s) Euro Weeklies for 12/1-7 fwiw shows it warmer than normal in much more than FL though we’ll see whether this cools off today considering the colder end of Nov (lots of model volatility currently):

For RSTM2 COOP site, really impressed to see the warm start to November. We're running right at average now only because the past couple of days have been so abnormally cool.

My brother had pingers reported yesterday afternoon in southern Lebanon.

We saw this a few times last winter. Fast pac jet leads to systems undercutting the PNA ridge, causing energy to get buried in the southwest, thus, rolling over the ridge into the east.

up here, I average about 2.5" in November over the last 18+ years. and i have had 6 with 0.0" of snow. so no, November is not a winter month.

can't make 'em drink, because it's frozen.

Warm for who, Florida?

fix your snow sig, it's 2025-2026

I'll be more excited if I start seeing best December since 2013.