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Should become an AMWX meme.

Man with all that investment into the GFS you’d think it would be a great model…oh wait……

This HI activity jibes w/ the strength of El Nino. We know from other very strong El Ninos, HI is more at risk for TCs. Now, this for one, it is record activity for HI, but we are dealing w/ likely the strongest El Nino on record (since 1950). But the sample size for very strong El Nino is small, and I also would ask, what else is going on at the current time across the globe as to pattern oscillations? Yes, ENSO is the strongest, but does not operate in vacuum. So the state of other oscillations unquestionably play a role here, and sometimes they all line -p well/ideal w/ ENSO for a heck of season/high-end sensible wx in a region of the globe! And of course, you do not need a strong ENSO for wild sensible wx in any given region. The EPAC and CPAC are acting exactly as one would expect for TCs in a very strong El Nino overall. So is the Atlantic. The NW Pacific has not been super active yet for many intense TCs, but ACE is at 125% of avg S-T-D, and the TC season here often has monsters in Oct/Nov and even in Dec, so its "time" may be coming! The E/CPAC total ACE S-T-D is 189% of avg. If we take just what ACE has occured in the CPAC, I think it is at or near record levels w/ the caveat you only have a solid POR (period of record) since the sat era began (mid-1960s). Also, keep an eye on the SPAC season coming up. That is often very active for TCs in very strong El Nino, and you can get HUs well E of Tahiti, so much so you don't need to look at Himawari satellite imagery, GOES-W does just fine!

I saw someone reference the El Nino of 1877 to the El Nino for this winter. I looked it up just to see what effects it had on the Northeast, and it was considered the winter that wasn't. I'm just going to go with low end on the snow and if we get anything major it'll be a good surprise. We saw this coming so shouldn't be a surprise if we get, at best, a mediocre winter

A combination of Cocorahs and COOP sites. Your area does pretty well and is on par with MPO. It’s too bad they don’t have a contract snowfall observer at MPO. Since there is quite a bit of missing snowfall data there when there weren’t volunteer observers nearby in the past. Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 PORTLAND 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 50.2 BOWMANSTOWN 3.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 41.8 PALMERTON 5.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 41.6 TATAMY 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 39.0 SLATINGTON 6.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 38.7 TREMONT 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.9 MARTINS CREEK COOP 37.7 SCHNECKSVILLE 1.7 ENE CoCoRaHS 37.4 NAZARETH 1.1 W CoCoRaHS 36.8 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.5 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RICHMONDALE 0.1 NE CoCoRaHS 59.1 MILFORD 8.7 NW CoCoRaHS 58.1 MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 57.9 DYBERRY 2.1 W CoCoRaHS 56.7 CANADENSIS EAST COOP 56.1 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 53.8 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 53.5 LORDS VALLEY 2.5 SE CoCoRaHS 52.6 CANAAN - 11 CoCoRaHS 52.3 MOSCOW 4.9 E CoCoRaHS 51.5 EFFORT 3.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 46.9 PROMPTON DAM COOP 42.0 WEST HAZLETON 3.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 38.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 37.8

LMFAO!!

After tonight, that should pretty much be the axe to the drought and deficit. It made a 4th quarter comeback but it has been an absolute deluge along and west of I-77.

Would be epic Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

GFS Op isn’t done shifting west yet…so those amounts will go up on that model.

GFS track in February would be like 3-4'

I hope we get into a much wetter pattern. We need it although this week has been nice.

Shows no mater how warm or deep the OHC is, eventually it gets "used up" from an intense TC that is moving so slowly!

Too hot, ehh? You're getting old Bob. Join the club. I've been a member only too long.

May of these are estimated. Recon in the EPAC were few and far between prior to 2000. Linda is estimated for instance, but I'd bet good $$ it was near 890 mb. Rick never had a recon. Kenna lowest recon pressure measured was 918 mb but it was not sampled at peak intensity. Recons in the EPAC seem to be dictated by the extent of risk and impact to Mexico and the SW US. One thing w/ recon everywhere is *timing*. We do not always catch TCs art peak intensity (Polo looks like we did), and given how fleeting Cat 5 strength is, it is remains a challenge even today. One case I recall well was Isabel in 2003. It first recon was en route when the HU looked very impressive., but it has to turn back due to mechanical issues. Isabel underwent a quick ERC in the next 24 hr, and the eye almost doubled its size when the recon got there the following day. They found 920 mb / 140 kt. Given how much the pressure rises from empirical obs in a ERC, I bet Isabel was close to 900 mb the previous day! This would have made it the lowest pressure for a tropical Atlantic HU (MDR). NHC did account for this somewhat, calling it 915 mb / 145 kt for a peak intensity that day before in post-season analysis, but good chance it was stronger. Not raining on the parade here, just given some context of the data set. There is often a story behind the data and some caveats!

Funny you should ask. A deer came right by my kitchen windows today. Stayed for three hours and even closed her eyes and fell asleep while I was taking pictures and videos of her. I'd upload a few but I think I'm at my upload limit. I'll try to clear out a few older ones and add them to this post. Edit it let me upload just one right now.

It would seem gfs and smarter gfs don't get along

Mean while, Ai gfs goes east lmao

It was fun while it lasted. This was a great summer.

Equivalent to the 3rd week of March. We are getting there

boat is out - it's over

That's a pretty big shift west, I wouldn't write off significant impacts EOR. Idk about wind though, that typically doesn't materialize away from the immediate coast.

Those 80's are done for the Mountains. We'll need to monitor for the potential of a lot of Gulf moisture streaming in to our Region in early October. Apps runner anyone?