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I’ve been sprinkling the yards recently. The drought in this area and especially to the SW is about the most severe in the entire SE with widespread D3 (extreme) here to D4 (exceptional) in SC GA to NC FL. See map below. Although it’s unpredictable, the good news is that a strong El Niño appears to be on the way. If that verifies, much of the SE should see wet relief by November based on history and long range models:

@Stebo

That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold?

I haven't seen an actual spring cut off like we used to do in the mid 2000s probably since then. The last time was a cut-off on 'roids: May 2005. It wasn't "a" cut-off. It was an initial variant, that kept getting a new N stream parcel loading into the backside. The first in the series weakened and acted like it was going to beta-drift away, but then the reload grabbed it and it retrograded. This recurred a couple more times. So it was kind of like 4 consecutive ones with lull pauses between them. Staying cold. No sun. Each one was more loaded with "o'reah" than Montezuma's Revenge. Actually ... from a purely Meteorological dorkatudal-doo it was a pretty spectacular. There was IP and mangled aggregates mixed at times up in the Worcester Hills. There were three or four different accelerations of the NEesterly wind field during each re-invigoration of the coastal storm that would rotate back when said parcels reloaded. Winds gusted 45 mph. Sheets of 38 to 44F rain... The whole thing took like 2.5 to 3 weeks to finally kick out. Lesser, singular events with a cut-off in April were more common in the 1980s and '90s. Seems we've had a dearth of those in last decade?

Unless your swimming or at the beach the heat is pointless. Never understood how People like it.. 60 to 70 would be perfect in summer..

29 to 57 so far. Those mid 60's further inland look nice.

Might be overdue for a week long wheel o'reah at some point this spring

Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry

Bottom of the 9th, two outs, Mets down 10-1 to the Dodgers, Alvarez down 0-2 in the count, Tony with his rally cap on "Just need 9 more runs...it can happen"

A lot of models are developing blocking now. Seems to have legs.

64

Not to mention none of that has verified this spring...strongly positive since late Feb

None of that has verified this spring....

-NAO does not mean cold weather in warmer months. You know this...

53.6° Will be difficult getting past the mid 50s here until Tuesday

Coney Island?

KFIT should hit 70 easily, already 64 there.

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

Cooler weather coming ? I hate the heat .

i do too!

Man it's cold right by the water. When will this damn onshore breeze end? 54F at my house. Can't even open the windows.

You are logically flawed everywhere ...and then asking others to 'get real' with respect and regard to your reasoning. got it Firstly, there is no data manipulation. That is a petty interpretive bs thing you do where you think people have some ulterior motive or agenda. Wrong in this case... I set that to be 1951 to 2020. That is all I did. It is not used for any other purpose, as that post clearly has no other purpose, than to expand the to denser sample size. That's just good science. Secondly, there is no logical reason or necessity to combine ocean, when the atmosphere is hugely modulated by the ocean. If you wanna get into a sciency discussion about the ocean modulation physics, that's certainly a valid and worthwhile engagement. It does nothing to invalidate the state of the atmosphere. The product exists for reason. Thirdly, using words like "random" further exposes you rwill to criticize before consideration and higher reasoning. Fourthly, I wrote 2 fuckin' paragraphs with explanation in that missive... This is plebeian argument at this point... I'm out

Probably the first time I’ve seen the clay cracking in April

The forests in the western half of NC are littered with dried debris from Helene. It’s a powder keg and I’m afraid one cigarette flung out of a window could cause a disaster.

Iran doing their best to reverse the Keeling curve