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This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.

long range meso HRRR and NAMs did

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

James? James, is that you?

Given how close to the coast it is modeled to get, I think so eventually—whether initially along the NJ coast or when it’s weaker and moving NE over part of New England.

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.

The eyewall did not disappear. It’s working on itself, you can see the inner cloud wall developing.

Well, there won't be much subway service Monday morning if that verifies.

Sandy lite v.2 - "Sandy's weaker cousin"

Agreed-a few days ago the track suggested north winds now it's NE or even ENE

I did not lol ... 12z GFS looks even warmer... By that, just less obstructed in general. 570+ DM thickness both Thu and Fri, with 582 non-hydrostatic isohypsis situate NW of ALB ... It's actually looking more more WAR-like

Will this thing actually make a landfall or meander just south of LI/NJ ?

I'd also keep an eye on western L.I. Sound. Depending on exact wind trajectories water could be piling into the west end of the sound. Been concerned about that for several days. As of now forecasts are for mid range moderate but room for higher if the winds can go more ENE for a time. Just something to watch.

Great. Just fn great.

Spinning wheel

Fya....if its your thing, dewey brewing is releasing their barrel aged pumpkin stout this weekend. Aged 18 months in rum barrels.

This will come in waves with a steadier rain likely Sunday.

Wonder if it’s at the point it’s worth getting out if you’re in a vulnerable area.

Upton now has Freeport in the major category for 3 high tide cycles.

under one of those Texas Panhandle stationary super cells

Idk....probably not thr greatest idea to have a weekends long concert festival on the beach in early fall during peak hurricane season. You had all summer to do that.

Some convection blossoming too north side of the center. Also, a very nice flux of moisture entraining into this from the Caribbean

Yeah, i mean euro had one run give me 4” in 6 hrs, but you’d have to be in that band quite awhile.

46 here!