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Back to having the feeling like rain is imminent only to have nothing to show for it.

Hoping for one of those types of storms today or tomorrow, minus the tragedy of course. Yeah 80 people, so sad. Keeps going up every time I look.

Looks like there will be some storms training over the same area sw of nyc and down into pa (if hrrr is right)

Looking at some of those river gauges the rises were unimaginable...so many gauges that literally shot up like 20 feet in less than an hour. Absolutely horrific.

79/74 with some sun. Steambath

Wow, I just saw that the death toll in that Texas flood is over 80 now. It’s crazy to have a death toll that high from flooding in a relatively small area. The water must’ve come in like a wall.

Cape May, N.J. has the same dew point as Key West and Miami Beach currently at 78. Scanning up and down the East Coast 78 DP was the highest I could find presently.

Showers coming off the ocean crossing Long Island, especially east.

Bad gas from last nights meal in a closed up room with no AC?

Flying down to Florida Thursday and going on a cruise from Saturday - Monday. Forget where it leaves from but going to the Bahamas...hoping to see thunderstorms from the boat or at least lightning in the distance at night.

WOW. Had that happened last summer. That was close!

77.5/77.2 here in 21057 HRRR and NAM say no rain for me... but my point and click says 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch which is down from 3/4 to 1 inch in last night's forecast.

Dew point still increasing at 77 My dog has a hard time with this type of humid weather, even at 6:30 AM on our walk. Difficult to cool off.

I have no clue what the weather is going to do this week. One model has crazy rain. The next has nothing. It's hard to schedule work when the forecast is so iffy.

Drizzling out..wtf

Gross and foul air here this morning. Give me a repeat of yesterday please.

Don't think so....bizarre way to celebrate summer-

Sprinkler watch in effect for western zones.

Yep it's a big waste of money. I think China tried it too. Anyone who has tried it realizes it costs more money than any benefits it produces.

Yeah I agree with all that, climate change most certainly makes these flood disasters more likely. I’m referring more to defunding research and cloud seeding is prohibitively expensive. So there is no way it’s happening on a large scale. It was tried with hurricanes in the 50/60s with silver iodide with limited results.

Do you grab an extra 12 pack of TP each week because of it?

Not much breaks in the clouds today - more sun tue/wed and heat advisories may be needed with the dew point temps in the mid 70s both days.

At this point thinking it might take something tropical heading due north to bring anything meaningful this summer. It is so dry here the corn is shriveling up during the day and the weeds are even starting to dry up.

You can hold government accountable for aiding and abetting climate change though. Even if it's done in this way, showing rage at greedy institutions isn't a bad thing. The government of Texas is utter crap and their hypocritical *empathy* when all they care about is making money should make them think twice before backing the fossil fuel cartels. It's similar to their position on gun control when school shootings happen. It's more about climate change than it is politics (although maybe some of these people don't believe in climate change, which is ironic lol.)

Most of my posts are based on what has already happened over the last 30 to 60 years around NYC Metro. The last 7 seasons with well below normal snowfall are just a small microcosm of this greater pattern with our snowfall over this much longer period. The same way the 09-10 to 17-18 period was. During the colder climate era from the early 1960s to early 1990s my area would get many snowfall seasons near the middle of the range with very few well above or well below seasons. As our climate began to really warm since the mid 90s, the snowfall around NYC has shifted to an all or nothing type of pattern. Very few seasons near the middle of the range anymore with nearly all seasons now well below or well above. Since the mid 90s we have become exclusively reliant on KU benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. So from 09-10 to 17-18 we had a record number of these storms. We were in a transition phase when we began to see extreme winter warmth starting with the +13 December 2015. This carried over into 17-18 with our first 80° winter warmth in February 2018. But the storm tracks still remained cold. So we were getting warm and snowy winters. Things began to shift again in 18-19 with the storm tracks becoming warmer to match the general warmth which began in December 2015. So the storm tracks still warming lagged the general winter warming which began in 15-16. The 7 year period since 18-19 has featured the warmest 7 year winter storm track and lowest snowfall totals. So now we are getting consistently warmer background winter patterns and storm tracks. While this past winter was the first since 15-16 to feature near to slightly below average temperatures, the storm tracks remained warm like they have since 18-19. While the NYC average winter temperature was near 35°, the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 41°. So smother well below normal snowfall season. From the early 60s to 90s we had multiple ways to get closer to average snowfall. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark KU events. The colder pattern allowed for hugger tracks which dumped heavier snow amounts before mixing to rain. Plus their we’re frequent clipper tracks to our south which have been missing in recent years. So fewer options to get to average snowfall. These days it’s all Great Lakes cutter tracks which are all rain. The hugger tracks are too warm to deliver the heavier snows which got us to normal snowfall in the colder climate. These days the benchmark tracks have been replaced by cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Looking forward we have a few options. While the winter warming absent a major volcanic event will continue, it’s uncertain whether we will see at least an intermittent return to benchmark storm tracks again. Scenario #1 is that we shifted into a permanently lower snowfall regime in 18-19 and the low snowfall seasons will become the new normal. Maybe an odd snowy season now and then in the mix. Scenario #2 is a temporary shift to more benchmark tracks and closer to average snowfall later in the 2020s into the early 2030s. But winters would still likely stay warmer even though the storm tracks shifted to colder. We would eventually see another period of declining winter snowfall into the 2030s as the winter warming and return to warmer storm tracks reduce the snows again. Scenario #3 would be a major volcanic eruption not seen for hundreds or thousands of years. Temporary return to colder and snowier winters. Very uncertain since a reliable long range volcanic forecast still doesn’t exist yet.