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I’m going to Hilton Head from Thursday-Wednesday. Looks kinda bleh most of the time with that tropical system possibly threatening after we’re gone. We were down there last year for Debby, so I don’t really care to do it again.

Yep. That will do it.

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh?

Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.

I don’t see why we can’t reach 100 for many of us if we get another stretch of WNW downslope heat. Especially since like you said we’re not getting much rain over the next 5-7 days. Topsoil dries out very quick this time of the year as we can see with the browning lawns.

September sucks because of yellowjackets

hmm every 2 days the GFS has an over top +PP doing the Ontario-Quebec transit though. Those are all BD cautions with that model. Euro not so much. So yeah, it's otherwise dog-days of summer tendency in the model runs lately, sure. There's also a tropical signal based on climatology with pattern analog stuff. The models don't key in on climate, more so their physical detection is describing how/why the climate analog stuff evolved the way it had. Either means of prognostic suggest something coming along ... But Scott's right about the EPS and frankly I'm not seeing very climo friendly look overall for any such system to be an issue here. You want a -D(nao) on the western limb, with some sort of establishing S/N steering all the way up.

87 amd despite the milky haze a decent amount of sun today

12z guidance (and going back to overnight runs) mostly want to washout the SE coast tropical low or pull it northeast out to sea. Either option looks good to me!

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

details TBD but looks like a prolonged above average dewy stretch summer as it should be

Nature is cruel it's dry and virtually nothing in the 10 day

The BoM released 8/2/25 has -0.2 for ASO and then rises to near 0.0 for the winter: Colder boat needed here too probably.

Would be history if it happens

Sea breeze boundary w LI. Showers now at 250 pm

There was an interesting article re: the subterranean blob of molten mantle moving south west under New England, aged 80 million years from when Greenland broke off. Maybe that is impacting the old fault lines?

100% Grade-A Craftsman tool-chest.

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me.

No storm has ever survived that far north of the Hawaiian islands.

Gonna need a colder boat-