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If we can keep some blocking, we might score before Christmas this year

People were claiming the intensity a bust in this flight bc of a NW-SE pass

So what about the previous 10 recon passes today that did not confirm the NHC intensity? Did those not count? Melissa absolutely looks better now than it did this morning. Much sharper edges of the eye and CDO.

Except 11 hours late. It was not a 140 mph storm when they said it was at 5am. It strengthened into a 140 mph storm throughout the day.

that was quick

Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies

Looks like the plane is going home. Anyone know when the next flight is scheduled?

just simple kinetic energy = 1/2 mv^2. For integrated kinetic energy, there's more to it. (I'm not sure how to look that up.)

They found them.

ERC cancel

https://x.com/pettuswx/status/1982527974378217764?s=49

Going to be a raw week with highs in the 40s most of the week with rain. Also I still like our chances for high elevation snow towards the end of the week.

942mb on the latest VDM

Heck yeah!

More realistic time frame. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

IR satellite imagery really starting to ramp up again. Cloud tops rapidly cooling especially in the southern part of the circulation.

Haha I didn’t see anyone worrying about ice free Arctic… just discussion. The WinterWolf time is back… keep everyone in line with a quick show of the teeth. It has been a nice fall for sure.

Seems like Melissa is entering another RI phase.

Your using a 300 hour map? Interesting.

939.9 extrapolated Unflagged 129kt FL and 132kt SFMR.

The idea of a significant rainfall across the New York City area remains on track. The latest EFI shows the spatial area of significant rains. Based on the overall guidance, noting that there is some uncertainty about the placement of the heaviest rains, a general 1"-3" multi-day rain event appears likely.

6z gfs. Nuff said. There will be at least a period of warmer wx after this extended cool period but doubt that warm .

Fangs are a bit premature, lol Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Yeah. Mentioned to my Wife awhile ago that possibly some flurries or Snow showers Thursday night. If enough cold can get pulled down there could be some decent accumulations up high.

I would definitely take 80s in November as long as we get a hard freeze out of the way first. Let the cold come in December or January!