All Activity

what is a "Pit8"

Man, we hate analytics, the three most boring outcomes has made the game very very hard to watch (similar to basketball). Thats a completely different topic though.

Maybe because of the warmer Great Lakes?

Well, that is interesting, as the Atlantic seems to be warmer closer to the East Coast and the Gulf. Plenty of SST juice is seasonal models are correct , already those areas are above normal. ' Threats may have shorter lead times and develop closer to the EC and the Gulf, but why does the superblend not indicate that, I am not sure at this time.

It's going to happen anyway, it's beyond our control :-(

Just hit 80 here - going to be close for first 90 here and 2nd other spots.

It was a dry winter in general, but it was wasn't dry over the lakes as it was along the east coast.

To clarify, I was referring to the mean high temperature for all of meteorological summer. As an example, a linear regression for Newark shows an increase in mean summer highs from 82.9F to 85.8F between 1960 & 2024. So the mean summer high should reach into the upper 80s over the next couple decades, at which time, July averages would probably be near 90F.

Yes, we in the lowlands are blessed to have late-arriving summers. But it sounds like you just can't beat @wxdude64 in VA with temps and dews both in the 50s. Beautiful. Clear, blue sky here at mid morning.

It was amazing meeting you in person. Usually it's not quite that busy for myself at lunch. June & July can get a bit nuts due to budget. Fun fact, like 8-9 years ago, not long after I started I had a group of 25 house and Senate representatives walk him to the bar at 1145 and proceed to order 2 shots of Blanton's each. At 1.5oz that's 75oz; each bottle being 25.31oz they kicked the 3 bottles we had in stock in 15 minutes, just as we closed. We used to have a copy of the $900 bill tacked to wall on the office. Regardless, when I asked if they were celebrating getting the budget passed they said no, that they were actually at an impasse and thought this may help. Apparently the liquor did the job, as I read the next day that they reached a deal within an hour of leaving. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Interesting "dry" look to the western Atlantic/Caribbean as the heart of hurricane season approaches.

Low of 64. I wonder if MDT can make a run at its first 90 of the year today.

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that.

Can’t wait for Pit8

Feels like DC summer is fully set in here in the inner burbs.

Yeah. We saw the -PDO hold in what was I believe technically a super Nino. So it’s not like it’s never happened before during a very -PDO regime.

To be honest, it hasn't been all that hot so far this year with all the rain, and cloud cover. What it has been though is HUMID!

DP up to 66 this a.m. Temp about 68. Summer knocking on the door.

Congrats Eeyore. Enjoy bro you deserve it.

COC

Great baseball analogy, a sport in which analytics has become an increasingly large component of the game....analystics would argue that this will eventually regress to the mean. Our batting average was well above our expected batting average last decade and this decade that is reversing, hence the regression. Now, I understand the valid arguments that this is more than simple regression and while that may be true, it is gong to take some time to know for certain. Each of those 4 season were -WPO, except for 2017-2018, which was carried by the huge March and epic NAO blocking....again, no argument from me that the +WPO attributabed PAC jet is a problem right now.

And this is why I am happy to be where I am. Currently 57.7/55.9 at 8:30 am. Looking around at temps in the area, 57 at the lake (Moomaw), 57 in Covington, 54 at White Sulphur Springs. Then 68 in Roanoke, 64 in Blacksburg, 66 in Staunton, 72 in C'ville, 77 in Richmond 73 at DCA and IAD. I'll likely warm up to within 5 degrees of the highs east but the cool nights and mornings are glorious.

Good morning Liberty. I can appreciate your passion. You’re obviously well stocked between the ears. Perhaps it might be best if you took a dispassionate pause before making some statements. Stay well, as always ….

The disappointing part is that most to all of the La Niña +PNA mismatch December into January seasons like 20-21, 17-18, 00-01, and 95-96 were great to amazing snowfall seasons. This past season singularly was extremely low for snowfall compared to past events. This is why the mismatch potential I was discussing back last October with the early MJO indicator had caveats. As other features weren’t lining up like those great seasons. So while I was anticipating the +PNA, the Pacific Jet showed that it wasn’t going to relax right out of the gate in December. So it’s a bit like a baseball game where the team keeps leaving the bases loaded and can’t drive in any of the runs.

I think its also important to note that were in an incredibly extreme -PDO regime for a few years and will take time to reverse that....I am sure there will be some initial resistance, but the PDO has come up to coincide with those initial hints of change last season. The baseline assumption regarding these cycles and circulations is preedicated on what has happened in the past....while we can make suggestions as to how that may be changing, it will take time to prove that one way or another.