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2” would make me quite happy.

I can really only think of 1 with that mentality lol

Late week storm still on the table per the 18z GEFS. I think we know its probably a light event if it happens.

I don't trust the MJO plots right now. I quit using them about three weeks ago(roughly). I do think there are about to be some good things happen in the phase 8 region though, and that might be a legit signal - I hope. February in phase 8-1-2 would be crazy good. So far(fingers crossed) Feb looks like it is going to be a winter month this year....the Nina should begin to retreat to weaker levels by then. A weak Nina in February w/ a negative QBO is usually a great combo. I think what is driving the bus right now is the EPO (NAO component possible), and until it relents...going to assume blocking trumps the rest.

Wow, that is the first run I've seen that has pretty much lost that annoying positive-tilt sw to be orientation of the PNA ridge...can work with that if it's real. Previously that wasn't rectified until the follow up wave.

there should be a thread where only meteorologists and pro forecasters can post, view only for everybody else

The crux of that is that there are a handful of users here that have this all or nothing mentality for our snow, if we’re not getting a HECS then we’re getting nothing at all. Even though that isn’t our only way to get snow. They’re persistent enough to make that opinion the “loudest”. Now without a HECS hitting climo is an uphill climb but a complete dead ratter when the metros had their snowiest December in nearly a decade seems to be a bit presumptuous…

PM me - plausibly interested for sure, especially with some notice. Happy to meet up beforehand sometime to confirm we all like each other too.

Yeah. F weather! Go work on your bitchin nacho recipe.

Happy hour has the sads for this week. But we have a monster storm only 12 days away.

Yea, me too.

I'll see you all later. Stone cold sober here. Just joking around. Wrong thread though!

What has even happened in here the past 90 minutes? I was going to say you guys are in mid season form....but, it is in fact mid-season. So I guess everything is right in the world

I'm just needling there....18z actually looked respectable.

The mjo progression would support some type of winter event based on just that imo. Fun to look at regardless. I still think trough has been a little too far east for most

Went through our home a few weeks ago. Stinks.

I’m probably adding fuel to the fire lol. I’m such a bad poster lolol probably should stop posting for a while and fix myself up. Focus on school instead

I think some people are taking certain ratings too personally again.

I mean: He's kind of surly. But he really is a person who hates negativity. Get it? (and he seems to really hate complaining, and hopelessness about snow, He and I are really not that different

Its not that far from a bigger solution

Snow squall and 34, little coating down

Going to be a little odd of a setup anyway. Been tracking for 20 years now and I dont believe anything over two days out and even then I've seen such huge swings in either direction. If anyone decides to start a thread I believe waiting until Tuesday when more pieces are closer to our area is the go to for this particular system.

GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does

Disintegrating thread

I did notice a bunch of 960s something mb lows on the individuals off of the Cape at 18z Fri. That's a bit west of the GFS op. I'll take the 958mb just off Montauk though! It's fun to look at but even on the GFS and GEFS, the 850mb/700mb lows are too slow to develop. And I'm losing confidence in this type of solution as we lose models to the Canadian solution.