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Wow, what an impressive heat lightning show to my southeast! This comes after some afternoon storms earlier today. I will try to get some lightning shots.

What, are you telling me that the eastern shore doesn't get its first frost at the same time as far northern Maine?

Finally seeing some colder air making its way into the US and eventually SE by the first and second weeks of October. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sfct_anom-imp

heh i’d be a little bit leery of using that comparison because there’s clearly a resolution change there I.e., the bottom panel has perhaps multiple factors of greater sampling density… suggestive by the granularity

Today’s Euro Weeklies release fwiw is more active, especially in the S Gulf to NW Caribbean and including S and C FL, and is suggesting that a well above normal 50+ Oct-Nov ACE is a realistic possibility. I’ll continue to follow the EW trends.

59 already

Welcome! So where you are in the forum will make a difference in what people will suggest. There is so much TO do. The Ap trail isn't that far off, plenty of other trails, from steep mountains to the canal (which includes biking). Course tons of museums and the Atlantic and bay are close by. It really depends on what you like to do. I am WAY off in the western zone of forum, but plenty out this way too. Trains (both museums and rides), trails, lakes, caves and more. Again welcome!

I overseeded on Friday. Then it rained on Sat (0.26) and last evening (0.74), so win! Course I am a touch cooler than the coastal plain area. Went 'tree peeping' today thru my county into Greenbrier county in WV, about 50% color above 2500 foot, 25-33% down lower. Maples, poplars, dogwoods, cherry and locusts changing, oaks mostly still green.

The wave behind gabrielle, the lemon on NHC site, looks like it would take a track further south and west of Gabrielle. The orange system, looks like it would track along where gabrielle has been. Still a lot of dry air out there in the Atlantic as well.

Lemon now 10/30 Mandarin now 10/60

Good lord. Mandarin is now 10/60. Lemon is now 10/30.

Cheers for sharing all the stats, legends. Still wrapping my head around the temp swings here, I’m used to measuring storms in mm of rain and heatwaves (I'm originally from Gold Coast), not inches of snow! The Euro reckons it’s gonna bucket down midweek should I be worried or is that just classic model hype?

I see 4-5 days of rain on extended but I'm far too snake bitten by rain chances on extended forecast to invest hope into it. 4-5 days of an east wind is always welcome though. Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

I'm seeing the Euro and the Google models develop the mandarin into a potent hurricane. I wonder if the lemon and mandarin could possibly merge. What are your thoughts?

Model noise most likely. Most ensembles have nothing there with the focus on the SW Atlantic over the next week to ten days.

Has anyone seen the 18z GFS slabbering NE?

Why is the 18z GFS showing a Gulf storm out of nowhere?

D***I guess they are gonna let the ridiculousness on the site continue until there's nothing left. I've been stopping it in the last couple days hoping to hear some opinions on next week's rain chances. Even when we had whispers of a possible cutoff, energy this place was crickets. I haven't been posting at all so what's the excuse now ? Never mind.

double supercells near Dallas with 2" hail north of Denton reported

Welcome! Where exactly are you? What’s the new job?

Apparently canceling my lawn service and not watering my lawn this summer has invited Yellowjackets to build a nest IN my lawn. I unfortunately discovered this when attempting to mow the sparsely grown tan lawn covered in leaves this evening. Apparently I unknowingly mowed right over this Yellowjacket construction site. I first got stung on my elbow. Thought it was a mosquito. Then I got stung THROUGH my t-shirt. Then on my hand. Then again through my shirt. Of course I start doing a weird rendition of a rain dance of some sort. My neighbors clearly think I've lost it. I try to play it cool, all the while being attacked by these invaders. I go inside for safety. One stings me on my hand again, IN the house. I take off my t-shirt. Thinking I'm safe, I go upstairs. A Yellowjacket. I go in my room. A Yellowjacket. They hitched a ride on my clothes? I killed a total of 6 in my house. Thankfully it was easy because they fly to the windows and just crawl around. Easy targets. I think they got them all. Google says to douse them with a mixture of water and dish soap to drowned out the nest. I will also start up the water sprinkler, which needs batteries because I didn't use it all summer. I will let that run until the grass is nice and soaked, which will also drown out the nest. Meanwhile, my lawn is half mowed. lol It will remain that way until I'm sure it's clear. I have a nice credit on my water bill because I didn't water my lawn. I have a few extra gallons to spare.

Im feeling this

18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side

Merrill was shaking on that final play... I thought he may pull a Harry K and die what he loved doing as well... https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1G9Z4nhipJ/

GFS with a tropical threat. Patterns sort of supports it with cutoff low near the SE