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Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues. My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri. Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack. Thank you guys! https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

89 push push

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along. The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere. Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. ——— THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW

Let the social media panic begin Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

I dare say Erin has continued to deepen merely looking at radar and satellite imagery. We may be looking at a sub 910 hPa Atlantic hurricane now. This eyewall has taken on Irma and Dorian visuals for that location of the Atlantic Basin.

Erin appears to be strengthening a bit again. The ring around the center has become more uniform and the cloud tops have cooled.

Looks like action expected around my arrival time, blessed

12z Euro way west. Scrapes outer banks and maybe even lower Delmarva with outer rain bands.

scheiße...

Wish we had this kind of weather AND the sun setting after 8:30pm.

It’s been a while since we had a 10”+foot hurricane swell in August.

Just an FYI...it's not wise to make generalized statements based primarily on one station's data. Due to a major increase in UHI in Phoenix, that station has a much larger temperature increase trend compared to places that haven't seen that much UHI increase. PHX has seen their mean temperature go up nearly 3.5 degrees since the 1960s. Meanwhile, Flagstaff (which has seen virtually no increase in UHI) has only warmed about a degree over that same period, much more in line with global temp trends. Tucson has seen 1.5 degrees warming. So that chart, while accurate for Phoenix, is certainly exaggerated for the region overall.

Thunderstorms that popped up along the seabreeze have resulted in moderate to heavy rain here since 1:45. I’m >1” and adding to that. So, I’m >13” for MTD!

Tickling 90 here. 88F

This could do a BM track and still give us cirrus. Not even close.

No

Big shift west on the 12z EPS but still curves out south of here

Beaches will get a pounding in a few days. Surfers paradise.

Very impressive all or nothing rainfall pattern this summer from 2-14 inches. A few localized well above average readings. While many areas are only near normal to record dry over the period. The added heat really dried things out more than would be the case with a much cooler summer. So even areas that are near average are showing drier vegetation and soil moisture. Data for June 1, 2025 through August 16, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.40 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.29 NJ WESTFIELD 0.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 12.70 NJ WESTFIELD 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 12.24 CT HERITAGE VILLAGE 0.2 E CoCoRaHS 11.93 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.75 NJ SPRINGFIELD TWP 0.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.65 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.51 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.50 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 11.32 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 11.25 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.19 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.17 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.43 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.33 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY SPRING VALLEY 1.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.32 NY NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 10.14 NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.13 NJ MAPLEWOOD TWP 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 10.09 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 10.01 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.99 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.81 NY WARWICK 3.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.62 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9.47 NY NELSONVILLE 0.3 S CoCoRaHS 9.31 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 9.05 NJ HARRISON COOP 8.95 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 8.75 NJ LIVINGSTON TWP 2.0 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.69 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.64 NJ MONTVALE 1.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.63 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.59 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 8.51 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.47 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 8.42 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 8.37 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 8.36 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 8.22 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 8.18 NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 8.08 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 8.07 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 8.05 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 8.03 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 7.88 CT DANBURY COOP 7.82 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.74 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 7.74 NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 7.71 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 7.68 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.67 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7.67 NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 7.66 NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.60 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 7.59 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 7.59 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 7.58 NJ PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 7.56 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 7.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.50 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 7.45 NY STATEN ISLAND 2.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.44 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 7.43 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.40 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 7.40 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 7.37 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 7.37 NJ JERSEY CITY 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 7.35 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 7.34 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7.34 NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 7.33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 7.26 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 7.22 CT BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 7.21 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 7.17 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 7.10 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.99 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.96 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.93 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.91 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.89 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 6.85 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.83 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.81 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.80 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 6.79 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.77 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 6.73 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.72 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 6.68 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 6.65 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 6.60 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 6.59 NJ WOOD-RIDGE 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.58 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.57 NJ WAYNE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.56 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.52 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 6.50 NJ WAYNE TWP 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.48 NJ OAKLAND 1.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.43 NY ST. JAMES COOP 6.41 NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 6.41 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.40 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 6.39 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 6.30 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 6.29 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 6.29 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 6.28 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 6.27 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 6.27 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 6.25 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 6.19 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 6.13 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6.10 NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 6.08 NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 6.02 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.99 NY CENTERPORT COOP 5.90 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.90 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.89 NY BROOKLYN 2.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.88 CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 5.83 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 5.81 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.80 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.80 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 5.80 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 5.76 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 5.76 NJ LYNDHURST TWP 1.6 NW CoCoRaHS 5.75 NY SYOSSET COOP 5.75 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 5.73 NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 5.72 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 5.72 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.72 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 5.70 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 5.69 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 5.67 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.66 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 5.61 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 5.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 5.57 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.54 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.51 NJ MAYWOOD 0.2 SW CoCoRaHS 5.49 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 5.47 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 5.46 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 5.46 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.43 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.41 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.39 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 5.36 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.35 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.32 NY AMITYVILLE 0.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.29 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.19 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 5.13 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 5.00 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 4.99 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.97 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 4.96 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.93 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.93 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.90 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.89 CT GUILFORD COOP 4.88 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 4.70 NJ FAIR LAWN 0.9 E CoCoRaHS 4.61 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 4.61 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.59 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.58 CT DURHAM 1.2 W CoCoRaHS 4.58 NJ CRANFORD TWP 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 4.56 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 4.51 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 4.50 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 4.46 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.42 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.36 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 4.35 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.23 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 4.18 CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 4.18 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 4.14 CT OLD LYME 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.03 NY HICKSVILLE 1.4 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.93 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.78 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.78 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.70 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.67 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.66 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 3.65 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.51 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 3.50 CT GROTON 2.9 E CoCoRaHS 3.49 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.45 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.44 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 3.42 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.37 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 3.33 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 3.30 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 3.24 NY COMMACK 1.3 SW CoCoRaHS 3.19 CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 3.19 NY SAYVILLE 0.0 N CoCoRaHS 3.17 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 3.14 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.95 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.90 NJ RIVER VALE TWP 1.5 S CoCoRaHS 2.84 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 2.75 NY BAYPORT 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.40 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.34

0/37 12z gfs ens members take the storm anywhere near NE

Here it is:

Vety popup isolated

Gonna be close - clouds meandering in CNJ but plenty of breaks. made it to 86 here. tomorrow next shot at 90 and then we'll see if next Sat/Sun can get sneaky 90s in the hot areas, enhanced if the week continues dry.

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 48 NJ CRANFORD COOP 46 NY BRONX COOP 45 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 41 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 37 CT DANBURY COOP 37 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 35 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 34 NY WEST POINT COOP 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 32 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 31 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 27 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 26 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 25 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 22 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP 22 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 NY MINEOLA COOP 20 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 16 NJ CRANFORD COOP 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12 NY BRONX COOP 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 CT DANBURY COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4 NJ HARRISON COOP 4 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 4 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 3 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 CT DANBURY COOP 3

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