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Average monthly lows for July and August for CXY were 69.7 and 61.4; MDT's were 71.5 and 63. Disparity even greater thus far in the early part of September, with CXY at 55.1 and MDT at 57.9.

This would track well with Barry being the alt account of banned member CurlyHeadedBarrett, who also played a persona filled with "Incel" language, and whose last profile picture was Elliot Rodger, a mass-murderer who is idolized in the same spaces as the "Barry Stanton" persona. Not to mention the numerous other similarities/idiosyncrasies that have been brought up already.

Euro says mostly upper 80s the last 2 weeks of September. We'll see.

I mean it’s very clear how you can see the connection in the pattern progressions-the warm W PAC drives a faster Pacific jet, that pushes the ridge/trough orientation out of a favorable position in the East or knocks the western ridge down altogether, which means the pattern can’t amplify (suppression) or amplification in the wrong place (out to sea or cutter). Last winter we saw it repeat time and time again. With a better Pacific, NYC would’ve hit 50” since we did get cold intervals that could’ve supported snow. And by the East I mean south of I-90 to north of DC. SWFEs can deliver plenty of snow to I-90 and N, and suppressed crap can work for DC. Not here. SWFE can be okay here once in a blue moon-we had one decent SWFE in Feb but I would never bet on them for NYC.

I'm thinking you're correct.

To be fair, it's been pleasant almost every day for three straight weeks

Thanks, you said when I was posting a little (OBS, mostly) from Brattleboro that it was good to have someone up the road there, because no one else here was there. That sounded weird, but you get it, I am sure. This was before Primshine (?) moved there a couple years ago. I have a little more time during my move, but will get super busy again with work and everything once I get all resettled here in a few weeks. As I have said, between work, Facebook, LinkedIn, Youtube and just life in general I am kinda booked a lot of the time. I always have and will continue to read and will post more than I have been. I like to keep my social media down to a manageable level or it gets way too time consuming, I have learned over many years. For me, it's just those things, and here, really. I am just really glad to be back in my home state where I was born and raised, lived after college (all Boston/Newton), and would visit every couple years. Full circle and it is a good feeling. Now I can just chill more and travel to places I have lived and new ones when I have time. BTW, one of the many photos I have from my trip back to Boston for my birthday a few weeks ago, on my way, sort of, here. Weather: drizzle, light rain, and that city still kicks everywhere else's ass. Heh...

You mean +PNA?

Home come? Because 2nd year Niña’s very strongly favor -PNA

A fantastic gymnastic move. Pulling the hoodie over with her hands, jumping up and inserting her feet in the hood while still holding on, then flipping out of it. I was not skilled enough to capture the brief video (a grandchild wasn’t with me). The best I could do was the screen shots. The young lady was amazing. As always …..

You’ll need to post more, especially in the winter, because we don’t have many people from Hampshire and Franklin counties.

How come? I know you don’t like the 13-14 analog, so I’ll bring up a different year that is a better PDO match. Jan 2022 was strongly +PNA with a -2.7 PDO

Looking like we get some backdoor fronts though. Not so sure we do.

My point about the username has more to do with a lack of seriousness and the performative nature of the poster coupled with the chav speak (you are most welcome) - I doubt anybody found the whole thing particularly funny or entertaining. Social media is there so you can put on a performance if you so please, I doubt that is what anybody is signing up for in a meteorological forum. .

I'm curious why we seem to hit our peak heat in June and then have "cold" shots in August. Shouldn't that be reversed? Is that just recency bias? Kind of an interesting dynamic. This is looking forward to winter, but that dominant -PDO is something to note from this summer, how it may affect our winter.

The warmth will eventually

this is exactly the type of bullshit system the nam would be stupid with

35.8 this morning.

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

I looked up his user name long ago simply out of curiosity. Odd for sure but so what? This website has more "Karens" than Carter has pills. If one finds it so horribly offensive then use the block feature then go and hide in one's "safe space." Heaven forbid one spends time on X and gets introduced to the truly terrifying real world. Long ago it became apparent there are two themes to this website. First, global warming is a religion not to be questioned unless one wants to be ridiculed, and second, anyone to the right of Trotsky is bashed as a racist, bigot, antisemite or nazi which is why the off-topic section was such a disaster (and the antithesis of free speech.) Now, all that said ... I do agree his "Chav speak" (learned a new term today, thank you) is ridiculous and needs to go. This website "American Weather" is not a place for learning lower class British slang.

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.

Modeled sst forecasts aside. It's at least slightly interesting to compare the north Pacific layout currently emerging this year, in early September, to the same time period from 2013.

I've been here a long time and we've regularly dealt with tropical storm systems. Helene is and hopefully will always be the outlier. I can think back to Bill, Frances, Ivan, Arlene, Dennis, Fred, etc, and never do I remember waking up to such flooding and devastation before the system makes landfall in the Gulf. That's the one image that will always stand out to me with Helene, is the sheer amount of flooding we were already dealing with. Just an unfathomable set of circumstances.

I can see -EPO. +PNA? Not really