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Flurries and 24F. Deep winter. Great mid season winter vibes, cold, flurries, gray.

A lazy flurry or two here as well. Just a few 100 bazillion more and we'll be on to something. I can remember as a little kid seeing flurries and not understanding weather (not that I do now), that I could somehow will it to snow if I just concentrated hard enough. Spoiler aleet: it never worked out.

This might not be the right place for this question... and I know there are a million cavoites but in general for snow and cold do you want a + or - PNA. The things are read online are +PNA means colder but slightly drier for the northeast while a -PNA means temps more normal but wetter. Thanks

there is a separate thread to discuss that

When do you think we will know?

Usually trough in Europe & trough near Japan corresponds with a trough in the eastern US, but there is usually a brief lag.

you always make these type of warm weather predictions but never post anything to back it up with - why ? post something that proves your point.

Someone replied this to me the other day but the stuff that was supposed to happen next week kind of popped up out of nowhere as an "added bonus" while the flip was always supposed to be roughly mid month. Even BAM's latest post talking about a potential red flag isn't 100% on board with can kicking it. Neither is CWG: https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2007118457418957123

Is it too early in the new year to cancel winter? .

I think there is a recency bias for folks to see a deep, cavernous trough on the west coast, and then just kind of throw their hands up and succumb to the prevailing theme of the decade....but don't forget, that was in fact abandoned last season, regardless of the lack of snow around these parts.

Well at the moment we don’t..so I agree. Just saying.

The EPS would def be more favorable to us in the long range than the GEFS/GEPS. All 3 would offer plenty of chances with that look but the is more of a SE ridge flex on the GEFS/GEPS which we know the risks (and rewards) associated with that. I think the EPS would make it a little easier to sneak a coastal in there.

mm I see some critical changes in the EPS though. namely, 3 days ago ... it, and all of them, were going from the breakdown into a -EPO. 2 days ago, that switched to a +PNA with less coherency inov that Alaskan sector yesterday, we were hybridizing between -EPO and +PNA ..which is like walking on a ruler - not sustainable. meanwhile the operational GFS was thinking it's May 15th now, the EPS is sending a coherent +PNA for 2 to 3 day, that then retrogrades into a -EPO, which is actually kind backward of the canonical evolution. usually, the -epo fades S and the +PNA takes over.... that's like 1 complete cycle. If the winter enthusiast is lucky, that becomes cyclic, meaning more than once. that was 2015... but I'm digressing. Point is, these may seem merely nuanced but they are aberrant enough to gum up the works. all the while, we are waiting for the N. Pacific ridge to collapse.

Yea. We just don’t know.

Congratulations to Tom on his 2025 win, and many thanks to Roger for all the time he has put into this contest over many years.

I still say that the +PNA will win the month. I would be careful about buying the deep -PNA as much as I was the -NAO...I bet we see that go "poof" in like fashion.

Sell the GEFS and ride the horse. Winter continues

Well I addressed the 1/7 onset date and the delay monster of 1/14 and 1/21 and got run out of town on rails . And as usual and as indicated it’s beginning to transpire. Models give examples of weather but not forecasts and “guidance” is a mere wish Let the fire bombing begin

I'd have tossed it in a second 3-4-5 winters ago but given the PDO decline back near neutral these past 2 winters I am inclined to trust it more on the W-Coast/Canada/AK ideas these days over the GEFS as its outperformed it there now the last 1 1/2 cold seasons

I think we gotta give it more time…conflicting signals—-equal uncertainty at the moment.

shut "em down

Bottom line…everything is in flux. Gotta give it a little more time to see which way it all wants to lean.

Yes, this is why often the big arctic blasts in these shoot down the center of the country and we get more pedestrian cold.

Some stuff...28F