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There’s some concern from some of the energy Mets around Christmas. It’s a month out so I don’t really care at this point.

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter.

Wonder when the GFS and foreign guidance is going to converge on Tday. GFS still like a full day slower with that trough. Foreign models all have the front offshore by Tday morning.

Well Ray’s write up did feature said warm up sometime around that period, so…

I do the same thing! .

He mentioned you as one of the ones making that claim.

Kevin probing

There’s so me well known Mets that are thinking we only have until the 15th. Not making it up

What is NYC's average high temps for Nov 27-30th? What does the Euro say those 4 days are supposed to be? My work comp blocks weatherbell so I can't see it. I know you're good looking up data though, so can you fill me in? I was thinking it showed a bit below normal temps but maybe that changed.

Voted for 6th. Have a groomers appointment for the dog at 11:00 AM but that won't affect being able to go. I'm assuming we'd be meeting up somewhere between 1:00-2:00?

Man where are you getting your info from. There's nothing that suggests a big warm-up around the holiday. Plus, it's a month away. You know as much as anyone else that things are going to change in another week and a half from now. I love the way you say these things to just try to help your reverse psychology theory. As soon as we get a real threat, you're going to be on top of it like white on rice ( just like the rest of us ).

50 / 41 looking a bit back and forth once past this Friday, overall warmer through then. 11/29 and beyond a bit back and forth.

We had bare ground in December in 2 of 9 at Fort Kent, and even with the sun out, we would drive with the headlights on by 3 PM. In rain, the gloom came even earlier.

The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010: Here are the respective Dec MJOs: 1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong 1985: almost all inside COD 1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong 2000:almost all just outside or inside COD 2005: all inside COD 2010: all just outside or in COD What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD. Below are the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: look how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured: Any opinions?

I'm not sure about that. It is all about what you click on and what you respond to for the algo they give to you. The people in this thread that post the nutty cold mongers respond to them on X, so they get fed more of those people. If for a few days I click on the warm mongers posts and read them through, I get fed those. I for the most part stopped following individual posters and just go with the NWS, etc., real sources.

VOTE

Fell for the bait ... after 20 something years of this pastime, too

The rev has forsaken his flock

I remember the Nam'd to end all a few days prior then watching in stunned belief as models all went to it the final 24 hours. Even then I wasn't sure until that 81 death band set up late morning and decided not to move. Off and lightning strikes for hours. I'm still upset our friend in Carlisle measurements didn't end up at least in the first initial report. He did the snowboard by the book for the entire event. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

So is winter over ?

I'm in a "townhouse" so basically a "row" ("attached" on both sides). It got down to about 64 and once the heat was on, within a few days, and after the cold dry air after fropa, the humidity plunged to 22% (perfect for the expected static electricity zaps and nosebleeds). Humidifiers were finally set up and i got the downstairs up to ~36% (with the upstairs ~40%, where the rain helped). That 35% - 40% (max) range is good for me. That central air heat can be a bear.

Bias is easy to discern among those who actually venture to issue a forecast, but it's also there amongst the Sunday AM QBs...just more subtle. The tell tale sign is the presentation of one-sided data. I think a quality that is inherent of all good posters is a willingness to present data that is representative of the range of possible outcomes. ...ie the folks that relegate themselves to posting about the MC and -IOD are just as culpable as those in the SSW/phase 8 circle-jerk. We all know the ones on each side....you know what the data offered will favor before reading it.

Holiday period is way out there a month-plus from now, but none of the guidance has that period as a torch right now. If anything, it shows up as pretty damned cold on weeklies.

I was remote for a lot of years before it was fashionable going back to 2006. Not commuting was great, but I actually enjoyed traveling and seeing human beings in an office during that time. These days I'm a self-employed team of 1 (mostly) and all the back office functions are conducted at home, but that isn't really "remote". Low here was 27.9⁰. The 4 hours around 28 or 29⁰ wasn't quite a hard freeze. Maybe there was further from the sound.