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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Typhoon Tip replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
It's an excuse to keep denying climate change ... that's it. nothing else - -
And here's the thing. If you know the raw data is wrong because you analyzed the situation and determined that a sighting change caused the 2 F bias then just subtract out the 2 F bias like what everyone else in all other disciplines of science does. It almost defies credulity that we are even having a debate about that. Correcting biases, errors, and/or mistakes is the ethical thing to do. Doing anything else is unethical at best and fraudulent at worst. And in some professions if you knowingly ignore a bias, error, and/or mistake or omit data because of such you can cause serious harm up to and including death and/or be prosecuted for a crime as you should be. This is why I want to know the root of this worldview in which biases, errors, and mistakes should be ignored contrary to any rational interpretation of "right" vs "wrong". How did contrarian thinking get so warped that they completely reversed the interpretations of "right" vs "wrong"?
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In California for example, 95% start by people or people related scenarios.
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we could really use some severe threats to discuss
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I think i saw 85% were, but depends on the source. Some say 50% human, 50% lightning/other. I guess cc causes more lightning further north igniting the dry forests
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we can't because of bad siting. The only other thing I can think of is have a parallel set of instruments outside of the park and compare the two to each other. We already have a mesonet so we already have the instruments to do a valid comparison.
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That is the thing, most fires are started by people or electrical wires. People now live in areas that were not inhabited in the past.
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This is true, our most damaging fires are caused by the human animal. It's not just NJ, but California too. Not sure if this is the case in northern Canada though, where very few people live.
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Modeling has been inconsistent with that pinch low near the M/A ... this GGEM solution from 12z looks nothing like it's 00z predecessor wrt that feature. The 12z version of that model would blunt warmth from getting east of the Hudson; the 00z would not. Next week's temperatures would definitely be effected by that should it evolve - some posters are leaping on any model cycle that pimps that an inch more. Haha. Allowing for minimal doubt as to what they want to see happen... But the surrounding super-synoptic scaffolding (both telecon, and established trends) don't really support that feature being there - for now. if that changes, this aspect changes along. Until that happens, I'd side with that being less meaningful. The EPS was not cooler than the 00z though for that period. I'm not entirely sure when the argument is for? but ... here's a comparison between the 00z vs this 12z EPS mean, centered on Wednesday this next week. The 12z right (hand side) if anything is arguable a warmer complexion than the 00z
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Maybe people can stop causing the vast majority of the fires too, just a thought. In nj, 97% of the fires are caused by people. That's from a nws met.
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Wet 1.60” here
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CSU doesn't like the threat...but CIPS is honking nicely.
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Maybe we should leave it in the Park so we can continue to make comparisons to times past.
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Blend, shake, then add beer.
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Think this last batch will about do it. 2.46" for the event and 9.06" for the month.
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1.95 right now and I think we can get to 2.00 when the little bit of rain that is left
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A Tolland cocktail
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it's why those instruments need to be relocated outside of the park to be more representative of the area. How many of these ASOS are located in parks anyway? 99.99% of them are at airports, so there's no reason for us to consider data from a park to be comparable to the 99.99% of other ASOS locations. Yes, we all know that their siting is flawed, but even moreso, why would we ever consider data from a park to be representative of a concrete jungle?
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It’s the time of year where we take the BDL temp, the Davis dew, and the ORH wind.
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When I think of that thermometer, I think of a deep forest in lord of the rings New Zealand. Meanwhile 100 yards east it’s 10 degrees warmer on 5th avenue.
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The way you were posting I thought the euro had a week of 50s and 60s.
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You don’t just go by model output. You put what should happen
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81.9F. 1st 80+ of the season.
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Sunday will be fine. Next week will be around 80, so not hot, but most importantly, it won't be raining.
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