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.28 imby..not impressed

Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think.

I've had 5.14" since June 1. Not drought worthy, but not good, either.

The 00z CAMs were quite bullish on afternoon convection, especially over central Maryland, but the 06z NAM Nest and recent HRRR runs have backed way off.

Better than my T on the north side of town

My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now

Don't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising....

The worst of winter is us sobbing over the inland runners and cutters.

I have an ambient weather station been good until now rain gauge randomly stopped working that ever happen to anyone? Everything else works fine

No measurable rainfall yesterday. NWS was showing on a map we got .10” of an inch yesterday. You go to the daily climate site it sais no precipitation yesterday. Don’t know who got precipitation?? Got up to P at 2:30 am “old head thing “ And the temperature was 73 degrees, definitely prefer them 50 degree mornings.

We got some good rains in May and July. There shouldn't be a drought anywhere near this area.

2.75" since July 1st. Nothing since 7/31.

Lol... His above average snowfall map even includes the Florida Keys... That's all you need to know.... Lol.

Not really, the MEI peaked at -1.14 in the offseason of 2012-13 and 2013-14. It does seem pretty odd, though, since the RONI and ONI both were in the -0.4 range during that time, and neither season produced a la nina on the MEI.

It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year

Got lucky and on the 'right' side of things this past winter here. 24 days with measurable OTG in Jan with 4 'T's' and 10 days in Feb with another 5 'T's'. Actually FELT like winter as opposed to previous 3 or so. Hoping everyone gets in on the action this year instead of a thin 50 mile wide line streaking across the forum.

Landfall (Conus) has for quite awhile seemed unlikely to me. But unfortunately there’s a lingering small chance. This small chance is best shown by the somewhat scarier 6Z GFS ensemble that was just posted. Based on that and other models, I’d keep it near 10%. Also, there’s a higher chance when you add in significant effects from fairly close misses of the center.

2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI.

A giant 0.05 this morning in the gauge, guess that is better than a goose egg. Muggy, muggy past 24 hours! 67.2/66.4 at 7:45 am this morning with some patchy fog, 66.1 low.

.75 of rain in Marysville yesterday.

Everyone on social media are calling for a brutal winter in the east.

Gefs is closer

Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?

Your solar must be ringing up credits.

Low of 70 with .2” of rain.