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If it's not in the model blend it's probably not making it into the forecast.

To your point, unless one lives near Upton and are experiencing this, isn't this more about the fact that different parts of Upton's area, and even just LI itself, can have wildly different degrees of cloud cover?

now what is going around, I feel like there was something being passed around since school started... Sun is finally out, feels fantastic outside, I think I am ready for spring, Lol

The GFS and the GEM (if one extrapolates past 240) continue to tease some big changes just after d10. The NAO is trying to be a player. It backs up the entire flow upstream and basically resets the 500 chinook pattern. Is it right? IDK. If we can get a storm to hit the West Coast near Los Angeles, that might do the trick in flipping the trough back East.

It's not a common thing. My neighbors know it's going to snow when they see the boards out on my front lawn.

All of our psychological hopes of a white Christmas aside, we’re still about a week out from all of this so I hope folks don’t get too riled up yet. Since we’re riding the boundary it could really go either way if we have a shortwave nearby. I don’t hate the signal especially considering that this is more clipper than coastal.

Meh on the GFS. What a surprise. Just posted this video on the pattern for Christmas week. https://youtu.be/zPngHf9xvyY

I would take Christmas Eve flurries, and the CMC does look more interesting than the GFS at least. The GFS shreds the post Christmas system more than the CMC did

The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs et al. Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized. Namely, it's clearly showing a more western limb -NAO circulation mode behavior in it's cinema, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing. I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde. At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus. that fuggin thing just cannot seem to ever be well-enough predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated. So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little less west oriented -NAO than the previous. We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though

Dec 23 is next snower in SNE

Let's keep it that way.

GGEM's a nice nod in favor of GFS recency, actually ... it's probably going snow on Xmas eve/morning in some micro synoptic weirdness of timing, when embedded ultimately in a longer term predominating warmer signal. ha

Boundary has definitely sunk south some on guidance since yesterday.

we won't know until Sunday the earliest of what will happen but if something shows up than i hope it happens for Christmas day!

At this point sign me up 24/7/365 for an EL/LA Nothing for winter 26-27....

Yep. I met Thomas with Timm one night. He is a freaking legend and Badger.

Yeah it's all we got right now. Just need to keep the signal and hope we juice up as we get closer in time. At least it seems like the blowtorches for Christmas and Christmas Eve are being held at bay as we close in.

Let’s hope uncle is drunk today….

WxBELL has GFS AI and its ensemble!

-9.6 thru yesterday, would need +10 rest of month to avoid finishing BN. 12/3 was -0.1, essentially average, so technically today is the 1st AN. Had a high of 34 on 12/1 so we'll see if that gets eclipsed as well. That was one my one great event...I had 16", but my mom in Wilmington had like 20". 2020-21, the winter in which several NNJ sites had more snow in February than the snowy foothills had for the entire snow season.

AI GFS is better. However the more suppressed look of the op run is probably a good sign.

12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

Canadian tries to get some light snow in here 12/23 into 12/24 overnight. It has a bit of a more substantial system for 12/26.