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We could be 3 hours from the storm and people would say " it could still trend NorthWest.. we still got 180 minutes " .. With only 3 -4 days left I think this one is another southern storm

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I mean this could be a major storm for eastern Long Island and SNE

If ("IF") the eventual track is just 20-30 miles to the NW, to which all can agree no model will track exactly. Exclusive to OP runs GFS 12z brings 2"QPF over the elbow of Cape. Butterfly Effect! Watching very closely.

I think someone needs to unplug DTP and plug him back in...

You cursed us, i will never forgive you.

We actually have seen that occurrence here. Let’s go to 2015. A 2 footer followed a week later by an 16 incher followed a week later by a 2 footer followed a week later by a 16 incher. The pattern doesn’t play the probability game but to your point, everything has to go perfectly right and that’s hard.

Gefs finally shifting south

It is also a low probability to even have a major threat less than a week after a biggie. But here we are....whether it hits or not.

Appreciate it! lol and never will forget you guys telling me in 2010 that if I wanted snow, to move north. So I did and look at whats been happening over the last several years...

GGEM is nice for the Cape and islands.

I generally take GFS runs that show 30 inches of snow in Raleigh and 2 feet in Norfolk in 96 hrs as Gospel w no chance it might be wrong

The fundamental problem with the lows is that the airmass is potentially historic in length, but not severity. So, we are getting very cold in the favored spots, but overall it isn't just enough of a cold airmass to challenge some of the more fun numbers for many of us.

Still plenty of time for that part of the action to trend further west, don't worry.

GGEM:

That Canadian run just shifted west about 50 miles

also this is not an all or nothing storm for NYC immediate metro - still can receive advisory or WSW from this - I would lean throwing in the towel regarding a MECS or higher though

Deform band, if it stalls/trains, is where you get 2'+ totals @ 3-4"+ an hr Wouldn't believe it here if I hadn't seen it happen in the Piedmont- 04' storm in CLT- you could literally hear the faint ticking of the snow it was falling so hard....Mom got 24" by the airport in Rock Hill I was up on North Face at Mt Crested Butte when there was nearly 10" in one hour- craziest thing I ever saw- chair ride up is ~20 minutes to the top- chair was clear at the bottom- ~5" deep by the time I got off

6-12 for Bermuda

GGEM gets NYC and BOS, but yeah, with comparatively pedestrian amounts.

She’s alive! Oh Canada!

Deform band, if it stalls/trains, is where you get 2'+ totals @ 3-4"+ an hr Wouldn't believe it here if I hadn't seen it happen in the Piedmont- 04' storm in CLT- you could literally hear the faint ticking of the snow it was falling so hard....Mom got 24" by the airport in Rock Hill I was up on North Face at Mt Crested Butte when there was nearly 10" in one hour- craziest thing I ever saw- chair ride up is ~20 minutes to the top- chair was clear at the bottom- ~5" deep by the time I got off

Ukie basically goes due east from the Carolina’s lol

This has a chance to hit north as well. Need to start hoping this goes away.

12z GEFS