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Cheer up fellers! Sunset is in only three hours! Kidding aside, upper low is still up north Chicago and all we have is some broad divergence ands little bit of a leeside low for now.

LAWD

Well the SREF backs up there statement

15Z SREF 9z for comparison

Interesting examples. At BWI: 2002/03 had 15 inches going into February. Finished with 58.1. 2009/10 had 27. Finished with 77. Even though it doesn’t technically count I’ll throw it in since it was close. 2013/14 had 12.7. Finished with 39. BWI is currently at 13.1 I believe. Obviously we can’t guarantee this February will be BN, but if it is, it’s in fairly good company to have a backloaded finish.

This is a pre-event portion. Most accumulations are supposed to be tonight. My forecast for tonight is 80 percent snow, low 12, accumulation 1/2 inch. It's MRX vs the Euro and all other modeling except the NAM now.

ruh oh

Quite possible it can expand west, but when they say impactful could still be a 1-3" snowfall depending on how you look at it. It does not mean suddenly RIC is getting 8-12" given most of the available data, which of course is constantly changing.

Milky sun in Asheville

I know it’s had a dodgy past, but after the last two storms…if this verifies…maybe pump the brakes on decommissioning the NAM. Because if this is how it plays out, it took literally every other model to school. .

And yet they put out the strongest wording for the Winter Storm Warning, Especially for the I 40 corridor.

Thanks. Maybe the warning will be extended NW tomorrow am

HRRR is a disaster for the triangle. This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists...

Forget a cliff diving thread. That would be straight to a grippy sock vacation if you’re stuck between two large areas of snow and get absolutely nothing

Just started pouring here. Clouds thickened and dim sun finally blocked out about 15 minutes ago.

HRRR gonna cause the Raleigh people to never wanna track another winter storm ever again if it verifies.

18Z HRRR looks a lot better than the 12Z.

Thanks, very nice

Brad P took that smack talk about the dry slot personally and used it on the HRRR lol

The path to my chicken run has been melting but it receives direct and reflected solar radiation together.

Wow. That would be devastating at this point.

Historically we got until Feb 20th or so for a big dog. Even MORE rare and MORE difficult to do in March! Not to say we couldn't get smaller events though...

Yikes. That’s not good for Raleigh.

It’s more like a U honestly. And the first word begins with F. .