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Models have been trending south with next weeks event

South Jersey will jackpot also

I love that I got the poop emoji for saying governments can limited transportation during emergencies. Sad that civics and history aren’t taught. Look up why the interstate highway system was developed. Also, if you think NY is bad live in Ohio with their stupid snow level warnings. They use them to ban traffic far more often than we do and often for far less. I routinely make fun of my in-laws for how easy it is to shut down everything out there.

I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play.

Ripping snow and 38 in Lewes right now

Of course they can shut down roads for emergencies. But not every road. They can't tell you that you can't leave your home for any reason. Do you really want some idiot politicians determining what is essential to YOU?

Snow picked up

Bigger flakes mixing in now

Rad motions are generally S to N, west of the Hudson River Valley. Just sayn'

My point was, Feb ‘13 was predicted here the morning of, to be the lower side with…15-18”(not that that is chopped liver)and 24-36” out where you are. I remember feeling bent out of shape due to that, and then as the storm intensified and took shape, we ended up doing fabulous, and it played out much differently than what was forecast. I have a feeling this will be similar. It’s gonna be a region wide 14-20, with Lollies to 30”.

Did you see my post above? Why am I the local jack at 900 ft elevation in Carroll valley just east of the ridges vs places just west at blue ridge summit having similar and then 1k-1200ft having wet grass west of pen mar?

Thank you. I really appreciated the reply. Seems we are much closer on thinking and you can’t and shouldn’t have to justify others decisions lol. I was just perplexed because while there was some model support for that 5-10 call it relies on a decent amount of accumulation today. The NAMs and the SREF and RAP all showed what would justify a 5–10 call. But they all had accumulating snow today. The forecast went non accumulating today which was correct but still higher totals. Seemed like a weird combo of two opposite scenarios. Maybe a hedge?

We just got off 81 in Winchester. It is really coming down but not sticking.

850's forecasted to drop before that

Moderate snow. 33.8

Man, a DASH of something would've been helpful here

Let’s go baby. I’m still optimistic for your area, radar is a solid look right now.

Nice radar echoes moving north hitting the turnpike peeps should be changing to snow

Yeah, Boston still has you guys in the 12-20" range. Thinking the 20 is the limit there. Highest for the east facing elevations.

There’s too much public access to models these days. Back when I first started with this hobby it was all behind paywalls. I use to pay for Stormvista so I could do PBP on here. Now Tidbits and PW are just as fast.

We should see good rates and great if it holds off til dark!

33.4 heavy snow starting to stick on cold surfaces

When did Dutchess get the upgrade, just recently I’m guessing? I was shocked to see it for Orange when I woke up this morning.

Dumping fatties

33.4 heavy snow starting stick on cold surfaces