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Man I miss the days of yore. Classic storm build-up with corresponding model cinema, then the blog drops…

Lot of posters on tilt already on 12/11

According to what?

Model bounce has begun Euro up big runs tonight! I’ll say 3-4” or do max 5” isolated areas.

Like the slightly wider strip of success. Still pretty scared with this storm honestly, but a verbatim borderline WSW criteria run from the EURO at 3 days out can't hurt.

Good news is one less blog to write.

I had a long post and basically just dumped it...too long. The 12z GFS looks like it has an infinite loop which has crept into it(and other models) yet again. This time it is over the PAC NW and front range of the Canadian Rockies. Until that gets worked out, modeling is probably wrong. I don't understand how that feedback loop is making its way into all modeling(reference early December fiasco). Now, it could be right. However, when we see a vortex continue to spin up in the same place over and over....you probably have found an infinite loop. The 12z GFS shows what happens(late in the run) when the model exits the loop. If that loop isn't real, it will likely exit that loop much earlier in the period which is what happened in early December. As for the MJO, to me it looks like phase 7 on the actual OLR satellite map for today w/ some elements in 3 and 4. It is definitely flirting with 6, but the tops look brighter in 7 and even some in 8. RMM1/RMM2 has the MJO index in low phase 8 with it bordering on 7. It might be generous to have it in 8. The problem w/ phase 6 is that there is generally always some type of convection over the MC all the time at this time of year. That said, the cold forecast for tomorrow and bitter cold for Sunday/Monday looks like a classic phase 8 look. After that, we see either a pattern relaxation(if indeed that is an infinite loop) or a pattern change to a western trough(if the infinite loop is actually real). A gradient look w/ cold trapped in Canada...I can buy that. 8-10 days of repeated vortices spinning up over the PAC NW...not so much.

Must be them super Omegas...hah

The ratios will be high with this event .

Of course, it was way too far south for last week, and it ended up being rain, but it will nail this one being too far to the south. Can't make it up. Past decade....if it snows for SNE, it's wrong, if it doesn't, it's right.

ya that was a let down after the other guidance looking beefy

Way way north of other models cha cha cha lol

Idk what the 9” is but here’s Kuch map

Dr NO has returned, I see. Good trends on everything at 12z except the one that really mattered

KING EURO

It's amazing....December just always sucks. Whether it's a torch, subtle cold like last year, or frigid like this year...it just doesn't snow.

Yeah euro is nice, we are still in it

Coating made it all the way to Media 9-9:30 am.

If 12z EURO doesn’t mix precip maps suggest 3-4” 10:1 for DC-Balt corridor

Euro holds blasts dc to Baltimore 3-6”

Low was weaker on the 12z run then 06z, Get this to ramp up in time looks to be one of the problems.

At least it didn’t revert to 00z but would’ve liked to see another tick improvement from 06z

Great, rain and then whiffed to the south before the warm up.

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All the area needs to finish December with a multi-station average of -2 to -3 is to go +2 to +3 from December 17th through the 31st which isn’t very extreme. Models have been notorious for missing the magnitude of both warm ups and cool downs in the long range. Most of the time our climate has above average temperatures. So there are more total opportunities for the models to underestimate the warm ups than the cool downs. This is why the models underestimation of the current cold pattern from back in late November was more memorable. This was our only real colder pattern here of this magnitude since last January. The other repeating pattern has been that the warm ups which follow the cool downs eventually rank higher than the cool downs did. Sometimes it takes several months as last spring and summer were much warmer than the cold last January.