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To me in the charts above for example, the 39.7 in 1990 is the 9th coldest temperature but the 13th coldest year.

Would I be right in assuming Liberty Bell = Weathergeek2005 = Tony? Asking because RJay posted a forecast from Tony in contest and RJay's inbox is full so I can't ask him that way.

I'll always take a chance with this +PNA low pressure correlation (both sides are considered, -pna is opposite)

The lowest thickness values of 505 dm are over NYC around 06z Sunday (0100h EST Sunday) after which they slowly increase. It could be one of those nights in rural areas where temperatures tank in the evening, hit rock bottom after midnight then waver or rise slightly towards dawn. In rural areas of NJ and se NY could see -10 F or lower. The air mass waiting to come south is not brutally cold, it is currently -30F in western Nunavut (Ennadai Lake, Rankin Inlet) to -35 C at Cambridge Bay. But there's a pool of -35 C over northern Quebec that will be pulled into the circulation without having to cross any bodies of water to get to western New England or the Hudson valley. Great Lakes influence will be modified too, as Lake Erie is frozen over in many areas, and Lakes Huron and Ontario have near-freezing water temps and some ice cover too. Hudson and James Bay are of course frozen now but even so air crossing ice covered water can pick up slight amounts of heat if snow cover on that ice is not overly deep.

no we dont. the wizards need to lose the rest of their games. Cant afford to win 1

Might want to shitcan the GooFoS

We had temps of 80+ here in Santa Barbara County yesterday. Looks like things get more seasonable over the next 7-10 days, with a few chances for snow in the higher elevations of the Santa Ynez and San Gabriels.

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

That Bristol county screw zone has been consistently showing up as a result of the Norlun potential along the coast

once he is locked and loaded with -PNA...its pretty much over with him no matter what else shows up. Sometimes oscillations can neutralize other oscillations like this big ass +WPO is going not overcome a solid -AO/-NAO this week/weekend/maybe next week

I just want a favorable Pacific pattern - I don't care so much about the NAO. In mid to late February, our average high creeps up to the low to mid 40s, so we do need a below average pattern. +EPO/-PNA won't do that >90% of the time. It is pretty bad that we had a lot of favorable patterns the last 2 Winters with not much precip, but that's a Nina STJ.

From Cleve on the Arctic front to get idea of timing. The latest 12z and 18z hi-res forecast model guidance shows the Arctic front arriving in NWOH and around the Toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. The front will arrive in the Cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm and the Erie, Akron, Canton, Youngstown area between 6 pm and 8 pm. The guidance shows the potential for a broken line of heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage of the Arctic front Friday evening.

As there is no discussion thread for cold and snow Friday night into weekend, feel free to use contest thread to discuss details. I have amended the thread title.

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

We can get snow even here in March, I have pics from a few year back a solid coating on like the 28th, and I’m fairly inland to the immediate coast. It’s just a preference thing whether I live here or in upstate Vermont, more tied in with the length of a solar day. My point was Feb is early to call winter, March is more preferential - but I’m not naive to the climate differences over the relative short distances across the northeast and various metros. I didn’t extend my thoughts on March to anyone but myself. March is absolutely still winter even down here, especially in the northern pine barrens where overnights remain very cold on radiative cooling nights. Like I said, it’s more an abstraction than empirical as far as what I like / dislike or feel is a winter vibe or not, paramount is dark, short days. I was being tongue in cheek about the sun. It’s similar to how the sun starts to ‘look like fall’ in August, nothing beats the dark of December and the feel of looking to the entire winter ahead - that’s more what I meant.

They have a different kind of snow in Colombia, from what I hear.

yes i'm able to walk outside again, without fear of frostbite but slip and falls are still a threat.

Happy BHM

Guidance still shows light snow reaching the NYC area just before the end of the calendar day Friday so there could be 0.1" of your snow falling before the contest period but it still looks like whatever may fall will start falling just as the contest period opens. Whether any is added late Monday into Tuesday now looks a bit dubious. As to temperatures, would say there is no chance for a really low max for Saturday because the very cold air is going to filter in to some extent as a norlun type of system develops over New England after 06z Saturday. I could imagine temperatures being around 30F at midnight Friday, falling to low 20s overnight and never recovering all day, in the teens, then falling to lowest value Sunday morning and so the big question would be, any significant warm advection late Sunday or does the temperature stay low until past midnight when perhaps it might rise a bit towards Monday morning? I am amending my guess from 14,4 to 16,4 after considering these options. Same snowfall of 0.6" (my entry is always considered last entry so anyone who ties me on these values will be ahead).

I don't like that look, the EPO is positive. The trough in eastern Alaska and western Canada is a mechanism to cause a fast Pacific jet and surface level warmth here in the east that you don't really see on 500mb. Sometimes in +EPO, the H5 will be neutral or slightly negative, but low level warmth dominates. We need that -PNA ridge to go poleward further east or NE. Otherwise we'll be in the upper 30s/low 40s for storms.

12z GEFS kinda likes that window too Here ya go snow map freaks- not bad 2 weeks out lol

Have to think landscape changes have some impact. Were alot more forested now in NE than the early 1900s. Probably makes more of a difference in the summer when were leafed out. Seems like its been hard to pull high end heat despite increasing norms. Been doing the dews though

because people there actually pay attention to the winter olympics.....my wife is colombian; never heard of the winter olympics before she came here.

My hitta my hitta. Happy BHM. *wheezing*