All Activity
- Past hour
-
.02" yesterday, which guarantees yet another below 2" precip month. Unreal. It never ends.
-
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Voyager, I don't know what networks your station is connected to but if you DM me your station info and at least 90 days of preferably sub hourly (most stations are network updated at 5, 15 or 30 minutes intervals) I can do a simple QC check based on actual published methods. For a basic 90-day quality check, I compare each weather station with about 6 to 10 nearby personal weather stations, ideally within roughly 5 miles, plus a reliable airport or professional station if one is close enough. For every hour, I calculate the median of the surrounding stations and compare the station being tested against that local reference. The median is useful because one bad or poorly placed station cannot easily distort the result. I then look at the average bias, which shows whether the station usually reads too high or too low, the mean absolute error, which shows the typical size of the difference, and the correlation, which shows whether it follows weather changes correctly. I also check for missing data, stuck readings, sudden jumps, unusual day-versus-night behavior, and repeated differences during rain, strong sun, or calm nights. The result gives me a practical estimate of whether the station is trustworthy, slightly biased but correctable, or unreliable for a particular measurement. that goes for anyone else as well. I have API setup with xweather, keystone Mesonet, NWS MADIS feed. I ran right to the pipeline knife and messing around with them this is what comes out at the end see attached Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How was your winter forecast for last winter ? No one should put out a winter forecast this early no matter if it shows warmth or cold. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That July 16th Tahiti 1018.25 mb is its 2nd highest on record back to 1991. The highest is only barely higher, 1018.35 (mid-2004). -
Why did the baseball league batting average drop from .270, 20-30 years ago, to about .245 now?
-
Some key injuries aren't helping an already precarious situation. Both catchers are having health issues and ofc Blaze is out for an extended period. The pitching has been solid lately so lets see if that continues. Fun to watch Mayo bash long homeruns whenever a pitcher makes a mistake, but otherwise he is an easy out lol. He will probably hit 20 HRs with a batting avg of .195 because there are so many shitty pitchers.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak re-adjusted: 19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s. -
Lots of 50s for lows tomorrow morning
-
A cooler regime, less smoky regime has settled into the region just in time for the World Cup final. The pleasant temperature regime will continue for an extended period of time. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s and lower 80s through the week into the start of the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some areas could pick up heavy downpours. The long-term outlook for the remainder of July has swung to near normal or even somewhat cooler than normal on the guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -27.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.800 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
+2 for Nino 3.4? -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
haha, tipping bucket. if you want I can get you the exact error measurements of heptic vs tipping vs manual gauge. heptic has about a 17% error vs tipping bucket 3-4% Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
Just don’t get swept in Boston and 4-2 to start the second half is great. But they have a tough schedule the rest of the way. They’ll have to earn it, even with the soft AL.
-
Yeah but Texas does NOT need more rain
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think they are arguing for +EPO correlation, scarred from recent Nino's I think. The map above has a negative 500mb right in the NPH region.. that's El Nino! I don't think the EPO is always positive in El Nino, it's further north so more variance. The 1895-1950 anti-La Nina is very -EPO in El Nino. -PDO does favor +epo/+wpo -
I would feel a little bit better if the Red Sox hadn't suddenly awoken and won 12 in a row. That said the AL is so pathetic the Os can stay in the hunt as long as they keep pushing towards and then past 500. I honestly don't think they can though. Too many holes. Ofc Elias will try to fill them in an attempt to save his skin, and will likely set this team back even further. He is a gaslighting turd.
-
Outflow probably killed our chances rest of day but 0.17” brings the MTD to 6.57”
-
Most of the rain upcoming seems like a boundary slipping down,who know who gets the rain but even so the MJO into the WH/EP isnt a rather dry solution,more unsettled in days ahead
- 379 replies
-
- severe
- mountain snow
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Important to note though, those mid atlantic blizzards happened because you were able to get PV lobes dropping south from the Hudson’s and phasing. Even if this did not show up in the post season mean. One of the issues during super Ninos you tend to get too much warm air/ridge bridging in Canada for these PV lobes to really set up to begin with. -
Nice warm day. Temps peaking now at 85/68. Stms overnight into the early morn possible.
-
I would say that is pretty pathetic and lazy if we were in normal times, but knowing what we know, I suppose it is understandable.
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This isn't going to be cold in the mean like 2002.....too much warmth too far east for that. I think we can get some brutal cold, but it will be fleeting, like 2016 and 1983.
