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Maybe even ever

Comments on Today’s Mt. Holly Forecast Discussion Today’s Mt. Holly forecast discussion once again seems to reflect the same “haves and have-nots” problem we have repeatedly seen with beneficial rainfall across the region. While thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall may occur somewhere within the forecast area, that does not necessarily translate into meaningful rainfall for the Lehigh Valley, particularly the drought-affected areas north of South Mountain. The discussion appears overly optimistic about the prospects for beneficial rainfall reaching these areas. One of my primary concerns is the influence of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Once convection develops elsewhere, particularly south or west of the Lehigh Valley, those outflow boundaries can significantly alter the local environment and disrupt subsequent storm development. Combined with the terrain and topographic influences surrounding the Lehigh Valley, this can once again leave portions of the area with very little rainfall while locations elsewhere receive excessive amounts. For the Lehigh Valley, I would consider rainfall exceeding 0.50 inch far from certain. In many locations, receiving even that amount may be fortunate unless the convective pattern develops in a very specific manner. There appear to be two realistic mechanisms that could produce widespread, beneficial rainfall for the Lehigh Valley: Training thunderstorms develop over the same locations. This could produce substantial rainfall, but the placement of training convection is extremely difficult to predict and may just as easily occur outside the drought-affected areas. The frontal boundary slows or stalls in a favorable position. That could provide a longer period for repeated convection and more widespread rainfall. However, based on the persistence of the recent pattern, I consider that an even less likely outcome for the Lehigh Valley. Without one of these mechanisms occurring, scattered thunderstorms may once again produce impressive rainfall totals in isolated areas while leaving much of the Lehigh Valley with inadequate rainfall. That distinction is important. A regional flash-flood threat is not the same thing as regional drought relief. A few locations receiving 2–3 inches from thunderstorms does little for drought conditions if large portions of the Lehigh Valley receive a few tenths of an inch or nothing at all. I believe Mt. Holly should place greater emphasis in its forecast discussions on the continuing drought and rainfall deficits north of South Mountain. Flooding potential certainly needs to be communicated where warranted, but it should not dominate the discussion to the point that the public is left with the impression that widespread beneficial rainfall is expected. Until the existing pattern actually breaks, the forecast discussion should distinguish much more clearly between localized heavy rainfall potential and widespread, sustained drought-relieving rainfall. For the Lehigh Valley, those are two very different outcomes.

50.3° coldest of the month.

Yeah. You can see it on wunderground how New England stands out with some cool temps. Crazy how warm it is up near Hudson Bay.

Had us up to the mid-80s, but only topped out at 80 here. Expected to be up to 86 tomorrow, though TWC/Wunderground is conservative with 81 due to anticipated suicide weather with persistent stratus and solid cloud cover to finish the weekend.

51.5° Chilly morning. A lot of upper 40s in EMATT.

Sorry yes please post your anomalies for August below do so before 6z (2am eastern time) August 1st. So far Don S. still holds a solid lead but we are getting into the time of year where things will start to be a bit more chaotic and forecast moves can happen quick.

Unfortunately it was longly this time. I love that you have a lot of juice though. Please don’t waste it.

Unfortunately starting from a record low in winter will have this happen. The area of 80N and even close to 70N has been near normal or below normal temp wise most of the summer thus far. This is what you want to see in a good retention year but again starting point always matters. If this holds into August we should continue to slide above that 2012 number and get more inline with recent years probably 6-8th lowest roughly. Im honestly surprised more so we didn't take a massive hit this year but presume next year will likely start another leg down. Fingers are crossed it doesn't.

So the new AMO data is not de-trended like the old AMO data I used. If you de-trend it for time/global warming, correlation (r-squared) is over 0.8 between the two data sets for Nov-Apr. I also converted the PDO data back to the old Nate Mantua/JISAO methodology which ran about +0.5 more positive (2014-15 was +2.07 from Nov-Apr by that method, now shows as +1.59). Converted to the old methodology, where PDO was +2.07 and not +1.59 in 2014-15, I'd expect PDO in the -0.25 to +0.25 range for Nov-Apr (but it will show as -0.75 to -0.25 probably on the current methodology overall). AMO looks like it will be in the +0.20 range. Even with the de-trending, AMO was bonkers in 2023-24, +0.60 for Nov-Apr, warmest ever v. baseline and long-term trends. Part of why the 1972-73 pattern held (warmest NE 1/4 US, much colder elsewhere) but not the actual temperature pattern that year (much hotter). It's also really interesting seeing how weird the last solar cycle was in retrospect. We're quite similar to the down-slope of the cycle that peaked in 1968-1969 at 155 (we peaked at 149 in 2024-25). The QBO data stopped in Feb 2026. However, the six most similar years to 2025 for QBO, by objective absolute value measure are: 2014 then 1972 then 2021 then 1974 then 1979 then 1958. The winters starting 2015, 1973, 2022, 1975, 1980, 1959 are all +QBO winters in the +0 to +10 range. El Ninos in that QBO range are 1957, 1963, 1969, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2006, 2015, 2018. The Jamstec believe it or not has the Modoki index reaching +0.95 or so for Dec-Feb, v. +0.5 forecast for Dec-Feb forecast in July 2023 for Dec 2023-Feb 2024. I think it will trend lower, but its probably recognizing (correctly) that this event will decay rapidly in late winter from east to west, with the warmth maybe peaking in Nino 3.4 in Nov/Dec/Jan and then retreating to Nino 4 in Jan-Mar before collapsing in Summer. I'll guess +0.65 for the Modoki index. I lean toward something like this now that my old analog system is fully up to date. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty cold stretch in the East later in the winter, probably late-Feb to mid-Mar for about three weeks if I had to guess when you do briefly see pretty ideal Modoki conditions. I think Dec-Feb overall is pretty warm almost everywhere, especially North, even with a few intense, but brief cold snaps. Winter ONI DJF AMO N-A Sun Jul-Jun ONI DJF(p) Modoki PDO N-A Monsoon QBO DJF Weight 1963 0.8 -0.036 29.1 -0.4 0.48 -0.88 5.06 4.9 x1 1982 2.3 -0.156 129.2 0.0 -0.49 0.95 3.84 10.9 x3 1997 2.3 0.220 54.9 -0.4 -0.66 1.24 6.58 -1 x1 2004 0.5 0.222 55.3 0.3 0.48 0.47 4.06 0.3 x1 2015 2.6 0.211 55.8 0.6 0.32 1.70 5.02 9.2 x2 2018 0.9 0.049 5.5 -0.8 0.41 0.51 4.84 8.8 x2 Blend 1.75 0.05 64.96 -0.09 0.03 0.81 4.69 7.29 x10 Target 3.20 0.15 75.00 -0.40 0.65 0.30 3.67 5 Long-term, since Nino 3.4 is a stronger warm signal in the North and weaker in the south, the composite should actually be more extreme than depicted by the blend I used - If you exaggerate the features of the winter to account for record setting warmth in Nino 3.4, I think you end up with something like this. Very warm in the North, still actually pretty snowy, and not really cold anywhere. I think we'll likely have a pretty cold December in the Southwest, and that's maybe the most extreme cold temperature month for the winter nationally. Sort of a joke map - but my current rough idea. Look at December - I think it will be warmer than this - by a lot in the warm areas and likely colder in the SW by quite a bit too. Now look at the Jamstec and the composite. The east-based look is real and present. But it will likely be breaking down by mid Nov to mid Jan. I'm not warm enough for the Nino zones - you can't get a +3.0 to +3.5C in Nino 3.4 with the anomalies. But I essentially was able to validate that the Jamstec isn't crazy. It has a canonical +PNA - very warm NW/cool SE. I don't quite think we get that with the AMO / PDO as they are.

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.

Obviously, I understand that if you reach through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July. Anyway, I did address this within the narrative. The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite. All of that being said, if it is still possible to pop a strong GOA low in the seasonal mean, this El Niño will do it.

Been saying the same thing. I think a ton of it is a mental issue, but it really comes down to the type of person he is too. He gets upset at himself and that just gets in his head. He really should have a sports psychologist to help him because he gets in his own head all the time. On a technical level, he is chasing so many offspeed pitches, it’s insane at this point. He is susceptible to it and the league knows it. He is a huge reason we are underperforming. Can’t make up that kind of talent.

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA.

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ! This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV. I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

I don't think AMO is directly tied to the polar domain, though.... Yea, I have gradually been expanding my purview since I started that blog in March 2015.

I can't believe how dry last Winter was in the STJ areas! I've been thinking maybe RONI should be -1.0 to -1.5 vs ONI.

I was going to say AMO is the only thing you didn't cover besides Asia Mountain Torque lol You could focus on S. Hemisphere Winter pattern in relation to current El Nino too

Don't be so mean.