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Man, the GEFS ensemble and deterministic after d8 are waaaaay out there on an island. The 18z GEFS going the deterministic run. The 18z GEFS ensemble has no support from any other ensemble run. The 18z AIGFS(which JB hates) is truly an awesome pattern by the end of its run.

There's probably some timing differences between members. A 72 hr snap shot might be better

Actually, it's also been 30 years since Jan 6-8th, 1996... All good signs,

That thing is starting to remind me of the clippers of yore. Which would juice up a tiny bit when it hits the Atlantic and drop a couple or 3 inches of fluff out this way. Used to love those. It's been forever.

Managed to keep about a third of the pack! 100% cover of about 2.5”

You know it’s windy when you’re driving and the leaves are passing you. 32F

That’s the lowest level of QPF. Closer to Massachusetts cape that’s some more QPF and could be light snow. Probably just flurries here

It's been 10 years..... I think it's time for another Jan '16.

EPS has support for something 8-9th.

Cape should watch this

I had so many field trips there as a kid. Grab some rock candy fo sho.

I saw that on the Nam

Clipper

Thats a top 10 snowy month of the past 50 years here.

Looks like we haven't lost much pack here at all, but currently sitting stopped 10 mins from the house for a log truck rollover cleanup, hoping things will clear shortly since it's 30 mins around...33 and rain still, hoping we Dryslot or flip here soon

I don’t know, it’s a weird narrow LLJ. But I think most spots still rip. But 3K NAM and HRRR have a similar look if you plot the 850 winds.

Right?!? I mean, a 10 day map always has me invested.

Yea the gefs has it cmc earlier an the euro AI it but it's offshore

Does that mean meh everywhere else? That seems odd

Wouldn’t that look provide some cross polar flow? Or am I looking at it wrong?

I’m at the point where I think there will be a major east coast storm between the 7th and 10th. It remains to be seen on who misses out. I think the mid-Atlantic north will be particularly favored this first time but idk. We could get a stout HP and get hammered as well. The -NAO just continues to impress on the models. Odds of getting that damming high are up from normal.

I also think the 8th is starting to be a trackable window. No guarantees, but it is showing up across modeling and at 500 on ensembles. With the NAO block likely in place, it is certainly a realistic option.

Had a gust of 46 this afternoon.

Huh... Have some pingers. 41.8*

Kind of a minor event possible on NYD from the Plateau into SE KY, SW VA, and border areas of NE TN. Maybe we can cook something up per the 18z RGEM. I don't think anything more than a dusting or snow showers, but we have seen these trend south at the very last minute - as in the radar is the only thing that verified this far south.