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@nrgjeff, basketball season is here! Vols get a big one against Houston. I like how they played down the stretch in that game. How are the Jayhawks this year?

This feels suspiciously too high. It's worth mentioning I've noticed the AIFS-ENS has a tendency to show snowfall in areas that are just really heavy rain no matter the temp. For instance, I remember Jamaica had a 1-2" snowfall mean right before Hurricane Melissa made landfall. I'd personally stick to the traditional ensembles until they can fix whatever this issue is

It’s a cult.

Dude that is heartbreaking. How many hours apart is that ?

Forecast accuracy beyond D10 is generally 50%, or the flip of a coin esp. on details like precip amounts. Likely worse for snow. Don't get too excited based on any sensible outcome it depicts outside of a week would be my advice. Personally I only use it at long leads for general longwave pattern looks, over at least a few runs.

I irrationally hate A&M. Aside from the stupid dog. The stupid dog can stay.

That first one was insane . I was living in Vernon still pre marriage . The gusts in that thing were unreal . 60-70mph I think that was the autumn we had that big screamer in November too with 60-70mph. Or was that 93-94?Those two screamers are to this day why I get so excited for screamers . I know they can happen

Doesn’t he post pics of a Christmas tree farm? Someone on here does. Or they just like rows of 3-7 foot tall rows of trees in their yard.

They seem to come out on nights like this. Theyre Winter moths, I think. I heard about an identification and mitigation locally a few years back, but don’t recall the exact details

There was meat in the snow in 96. That took two cutters to wipe out. First cutter had wild winds. So much for the snow pack causing less mixing.

Both of those went to bed with feet (melting) and awoke to green. At least 96 caused extensive wind damage. I can accept a little easier with big wind damage

34” on 12/17 went puff. This was 1pm xmas day.

The models at 12z & 18z today continue to support the idea of the potential for some Winter weather during the middle of next week. Maybe this is our first chance to track?

I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north.

I call it King Grinch for a reason. That was as bad as you can get. Just getting back to CT for the holiday. Good trends today on the models. Hopefully we can all cash in and roll into a good December overall. I think we all want three things: 1) A good start to met winter with at least an advisory event or two 2) No Grinch preceding Christmas 3) Hope for a solid pattern at short range on the models New Year’s Eve We’ll see how many of those we get.

At least it is early.

Worst cutter I’ve ever had. Even dendrite got wiped clean after having feet on the ground and his area is CAD-central. It was like a southerly mild gale all the up to Quebec City. My previous worst had been 1996. We had so much snow OTG (and dense) from the double barrel storms earlier that month and an epic 60F+ screamer wiped it all out. But 2020 was worse. It was more snow and the melt happened even faster.

Brutal climo imby this time of year, essentially a shutout fwiw

Honestly that's pretty impressive. If that mean output would be anywhere close to verifying then many of us would have exceeded monthly snowfall climo by mid month. Yes please! I would be very, very happy to eat crow and see snow falling.

Unfortunately I don’t think I can do any of them.

That is by far the luckiest storm I can remember imby. Pure luck in the middle of a terrible season.

With that much snow on the maps my guess is it sucks at winter storms lol