All Activity

These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.

Yeah too warm and its trending a bit east again last minute. I will have to enjoy last night's surprise until a real threat comes along

no real trend. very slightly east compared to 12z though still much better than 0z/6z

Double lows. Not sure if we should believe that. All these models have been horrible.

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal. Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days. If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha

It is interesting that we had a cold week last week....exactly mirror to last year. On social media, an icy trail showed up from last year on this date.

Gfs is east

Yep double lows

Looks like noise to me

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow. A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development. Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +27.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

That's cool, GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

GFS looks east for tomorrow. it is what it is, even another 1-3 inches would be nice on top of todays with a good pattern coming up.

Had some snow mixed in with rain here in Brick, but ultimately nothing.

Gfs with the east tick. Low actually looks further west, but precip is meh

Well probably more than a coating there considering Bigelow Hollow Rd was shut down for a while; but snow on the ground vs bare ground here

We got 4” today

Thank you!

Don’t look at the GFS

Had one from OH last year it was a play on PA Dutch Scrapple..it was so damn good!

When I find the moderator that deleted my Tequila tip, please see me in my office. Yall say your last goodbye to @WxUSAF. No severance package.

Looks like a few inches around 3000 feet and up on Cross Mountain. Ended up at 31 here this morning but barely had half an inch. Just too little moisture here. I actually think the angle caused some downsloping off Cross Mountain.

Gfs looks drier and further east

A coating in Union?? Really?

Sorry to hear about the fall. I’m so conscious about where I’m walking these days because I’m often carrying 20 month old. Hopefully you feel OK tomorrow. Looks like you have a snow pack that’s gonna be around for a long time.

Looks like she’s initialized into the PAC NW for right when the shortwaves come ashore.