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Euro AI ensembles are pretty cold on the entire run, but not really enthused about later next week.

Ill take some Snow on my birthday!!

Typically yes but we will not know how much press there will be for days . There has been a trend on the models with the PV getting further south thanks to the negative epo.

yeah, the poleward extension should make things rougher for a week or so, then it should become more favorable again after the 15th as the MJO orbits even then, the TPV being nearby and a cold source region won't make it impossible to get lucky

It looks like this is our first window (I'm on the very very southern edge of it so not expecting much). After this first window, the PNA looks to go pretty deeply negative then rise back to neutral-ish by mid-month. Then we should get another window sometime after that.

Hopefully you are right with guidance showing this at day 7

Yes, I def. wouldn't love this in your area. Yea, difference should be enough to get me in the game, at least.

this is a pretty obvious colder shift. SE ridge is squashed, potentially opening up a risk for accumulating snow for the Northeast mid-week. can thank the more robust -EPO for that

The irony of looking at a monster SER for a few days on modeling…only to need a NW trend this morning. That is what makes this hobby so great and maddening at the same time. The CMC cuts west of the Apps. We prob need the GFS to stay SE of us. If that SER flexes at all, that system is going to St Louis. But the cold pressing eastward on modeling and ensembles is strong. I would suspect a system is brewing, but with model mayhem, I have not idea where it is going. I would think someones in our forum area might do ok with it.

This is also a function of the weaker PNA than last December which we were both expecting. More cold available in Canada than last December. But the same stubborn storm track.

Pretty clear “threat” window on the AIFS in the first few days of December. More likely to be on the outside, but hey, it’s something to watch This is more aggressive then the regular EPS and even a bit more then the GEFS, fwiw

One trillion percent pass on that month and season here where we watched I-90 get buried over and over while it cold rained IMBY. Looks like a SWFE parade being favored which I’ll never be a fan of where I am despite the one or two rabbits out of the hat that can luck out. I’m sure you’re drooling though.

Sitting at the dentist for a checkup, or I would post the maps. Quick glance…there are some with light amounts west of for Apps. The GFS deterministic run has some support for sure.

Right....all I'm saying is it's a heavier press of the PV...I've always expected it to be a N stream dominated pattern that is favorable for NE, not so much your area into the mid atl.

Picked up 0.23" overnight which brings us up to 1.52" for the month.

Which is better for the Great Lakes into New England. Gradients usually end up farther north than originally forecast once we get into the short term compared to the longer range forecasts. Models not varying the storm track pattern with a dominant Northern Stream.

The western PAC continues to cool, great sign.

IMO there is way to much overestimating the SE ridge already. Also, its the RNA pumping up the SE ridge, not the other way around. Last year the SE ridge was not a major player, since we had a +PNA.

That's brutal for the DC burbs Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Sometime between 12-3 to 12-5 is the time to watch. Nothing imminent and something well south of us is possible.

Chris, if we are being honest with ourselves, that is a definitive trend towards a more concerted press of the PV.

Lots of December 2007 on that composite......my snowiest month of December on record.

The colder trend for early Dec is happening on all ensembles including GEFS: these are all for a week from today at 7PM: watch the SER disappear: @donsutherland1@bluewave

The ensembles always show variations with week 2 forecasts. There really hasn’t been that much of a change. Still looking at a Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge and a trough digging into the Baja to start December. New day 6-10 Old day 11-15