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Both models seem to have a cluster SE of ACK and then way SW of ACK. Or course the mean will be in the middle...but it's likely one or the other.

I was hopeful that you would do well with this system. The morning visible satellite imagery along with mesonet data showed northeast winds ahead of the approaching system. That setup usually helps with locations in the lee of the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mts.

best EPS run yet.. GFS is either drunk or going to pull a miracle

This afternoon has been perfect. Falling temps and steady moderate rain. Up to .70".

Unlike the responses from well versed forum members, I can only offer that I am very happy to see a post from you. Stay well and please if possible visit again. As always ….

EPS also looks good

Have had steady heavy drizzle most of the day and has added an additional 0.11" so far. Feels like a west coast forest outside today. All that's missing are some 300ft redwoods.

Serious chill off the lake today. Not seeing 70° until the weekend is nearly unfathomable after how warm it has been this September. On the 15th we were a touch below 90° and most days have been above 80°, quite a shock to the system

Total deluge especially ENE areas

If only this was in January .

12z AI ensembles a little east but good hit. Curious to see deep mind later.

WPC cut rainfall way back. Days 1 to 3 show a drastic reduction DC North and East, while the days 4/5 and 6/7 are whiffs.

very weak but still around at the end of next week

2 months worth of rain too lol. Still too early to lock anything.

days and days! might have to take a drive to the coast

im kind of interested in something forming in the Bahamas later this weekend.. CMC had hints and now the Euro... GEFS members and some AI members also had something forming the last few days..

Serious coastal flooding on that run.

Damn that was a good recovery

Poor GFS .. just completely alone and lost at sea

I would lock this Euro run

Euro ends up being a good hit

Good to see winter tracking for 26/27 has begun - i.e. whether or not the rain and wind misses us or goes OTS at Day 4.

Here she comes

Euro backing in a little later. Definitely a precarious setup.

IDK...Euro has that look of backing in. Maybe it ends up east of previous runs but that H5 look through 120-126 seems to scream getting tugged in