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So much for the cool and rainy El Nino summer. Looks like our drought could get even worse. This was at Falls Lake yesterday (main sections still have water but even that is looking quite shallow in places):

Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days to -0.48:

yeah most of today now looks dry. Delayed not denied LOL!

This will yet again be a <0.10" event, maybe even nothing here.

B But they're not even in a drought!!! /s

What a day.. I'm surprised they didn't go with moderate at some point. Even at 20z it was obvious something was up. Evansville fire and EMA were talking on the radio about watching Ryan Hall trying to figure out where the tornado was.

Ladies and gentleman, the broiler is about to be turned on.

WWB time:

The GFS has joined the HRRR/NAM/RRFS for a decent soak on Tuesday.

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is . I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

Anddddd it went poof

GFS is pretty solid for tomorrow. That might be the main rainmaker across the region. Especially Delmarva.

Upstate NY in the jackpot zone again.

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era. It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds. If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern. While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state.

Probably be some decent rains SOP tomorrow...might be a couple different waves of it

Shear looks better than forecasted last night. Surface winds are nearly due south instead of the more westerly direction shown by the models.

I see the models now longer the rain pretty much all day tomorrow, which is a change. So we should get a decent amount no matter what happens with today's convection, but hopefully we'll see a heavy downpour this afternoon.

Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.

NAM and its replacement

Considering the thick cloud deck and now rain, severe won’t be an issue for Harrisburg today.

Yeah not surprised honestly. Like Scoot said…more synoptic up here and convective down there. If Rufus is the future it still has a dual jack in S NH and the S coast. Funny how the globals are wetter up here than the NAM and HRRR now.

Low 30's to mid 40's across the area this morning with highs expected around 70. I'm sure there was patchy frost in some localized areas.

Hmmm. But the heating usually helps build the storms. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's less likely. I just picked up 0.02" with the showers that clipped north jersey. I don't think that will be it but this is contingent on some factors coming together, and they don't always. I'm watching the area now over W. Virginia and eastern Kentucky to see how that does and if it builds more as it moves east northeast. Also the area way back in Tennessee and Arkansas would give some potential if it holds and /or redevelops.

Another cool morning with upper 30’s at my place. Eagle Mine about 10 miles nw of me down to 31. Should see mid 60’s today and a bit warmer tonight w/ mid 40’s. Have about 6 weeks of good garden weather before the sun begins to sink behind the trees and hill to my south and west, essentially shading my garden from 3 pm on. Rooting for a couple weeks of mid to upper 80’s and humidity between now and then.

Wagons all around Taunton except Taunton?