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Yes and dont forget the small lag.

I can’t believe no one’s made a winter thread yet, we’re 8 days into meteorological winter and we had a day last week where CONUS snow coverage for this time in December was the highest (45%) since 2005 plus our snow event last Tuesday and now the second snow event for VA going on today. So I’m going for it https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62436-central-pa-winter-2526-discussion-and-obs/

MJO is now in the Phase 8 COD - so other factors are having a larger influence on the weather models.........

The preceding shortwave on the euro also gives like an inch of snow to CT/RI. Icon was more bullish on that first shortwave and other guidance basically puts it through meat grinder so it’s nothing or flurries. But can’t rule that one o it yet either…but the better focus definitely looks like 12/14

The good news is the Euro has been pretty consistent with the wave moving from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe (its wavered with timing) but its been dead consistent since Friday. This wave is important because, while it may not do anything for us, it likely sets the stage for the "potential" with that follow up wave for the weekend.

vs. 6z, EC significantly improved western ridge, not sure energy will dig and tilt enough to deliver on this specific run, but 14th a definite contender

Public Service Announcement: The models 'know' what phase/state of the MJO we are in. The idea the models aren't 'seeing' the MJO and will suddenly start seeing it is complete nonsense.

Actually it’s not. I’ve seen him post something looks great and it’s scraping the south coast.

If you start trending that ridge taller, you could quickly turn that event into something a bit bigger. It would likely be a fast mover…but those cold thickness quick hitters can sometimes be very good.

Obviously.............

And SNE

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will likely focus snow potential in northern PA and the Laurels with downsloping off of the mountains and probably surface temp issues. Another period of significant LES/upslope likely ensues in the aforementioned focus area of snow potential after the passage of the low. More pieces of energy along this fast northern branch dominated flow are in the pipeline behind this, with all major models at 12z today focusing more towards Sunday for a more notable wave traversing PA with a widespread snowfall. Much colder air looks to be in PA for this weekend vs Wednesday. Still some potential light snowfall Friday night as well showing on the Euro. All these waves will be enforcing a continued regime of much below normal temperatures.

Measured exactly an inch of snow! Hoping to get near the 2 inch mark by the tine the storm ends.

Yeah euro has it too. A little suppressed. Nothing crazy but prob advisory type stuff south of pike.

Without even looking, It must show snow in the bronx.

-6 here before temps rose towards daybreak. The weekend snow brought us to 16.1" already for the season. As they say in baseball, keep the line moving.

I'll take the Friday night flizzard and the fact that it has a sort of similar idea as the AIFS for Sunday as a win for now. I'm more interested in Sunday but don't think either window is close to dead though not sure both can work out

And the warmup is gone on the euro

The 12z model runs are once again trending away from a warmup in the long range. Consistent theme.

Intensity dropping like a rock now. Moisture mostly done and temps will soon cause the real issue of the day....black ice. PM rush hour and tonight will he horrible with untreated roads. Down to 33°.

Bases on the euro’s depiction, it’s pretty clear how only 1 of the 2 can really work out. The shortwaves are just close together. So a stronger Sunday shortwave prevents Friday from amplifying. Confluence on 12z is actually better than 0z for Friday.

i think you may want it to be a dud if you want Sunday which has more potential to have a chance

Talk about hallucinations.

the Euro AI digs the northern stream south and west....very nice sunday snowstorm for us. 4-6 inches