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That was a big winter and quite cold....esp January '82. Very cold month with decent snow. Same month as the Air Florida crash into the Potomic with lots of ice in the river. Dec '81 was very snowy in New England both north and south.

yeah I wasn't sure what I was thinking there, the plot showed the whole month, made me think it was later date, it was early my brain wasn't working

IMO, La Niña will fade during January. It still has some life left in it.

Canadian is a continuation of what we’ve been seeing for weeks. Clipper is potent, but tracks through NNE and rains SNE.

12z GFS still favoring a southern track, with the heaviest snows staying south of Chicago.

Does anyone remember the winter of 81-82? The Mansfield stake is tracking it very closely so far. (Not a basis to make predictions but it made me realize I don't remember much about that winter. Though to be fair to me I was living in NJ and in 7th grade.) https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

That would mean something favorable.

1989 is so glaring on that. I had a job over that winter semester break working at a fish hatchery in Nashua, tagging salmon fry. That was fun

Just take the mean of the GFS and GGEM

mixed bag with 12z guidance on the potential saturday event, icon and ggem p hot, gfs more of sliding duster

Cold across the Yukon Territory of Canada this morning is extremely impressive. Temperatures -35 to -40 over a fairly large area with a -52 at Beaver Creek. Impressive cold pool stretching from interior Siberia over the pole into western Canada.

Amen. This would get IAD, DCA, and BWI to 100% snow climo for the month.

crazy what a difference a few dozen miles makes

Cmc further north. Rain to SNE.

Canadian torpedos a low into Lake Ontario. lol. I’m ready to turn my Christmas tree into one.

The 12z NAM family has an advisory snowfall for NW burbs (Sussex, N. Morris, Orange, Putnam) probably above 300ft or so. But there's no support from the other meso models. The NAM also keeps it going for longer. Other models are warmer and shorter duration. I'd sell the snowier outcome for now but keep an eye on the mesos tonight. The airmass is cold but the southerly flow will warm things quickly tomorrow. The multi-day trend of a higher amplitude trof has delayed the onset and pushed the initial overrunning well north of us. That hurts wintry chances outside of hill towns.

You can look up some of these years. Here’s the “bottom 10” coldest Dec 1-8 periods for CON, ORH, BOS, and BDL

GGEM follows icon and Fs us twice

In past years, everybody hung their hats on the hope that an SSW would materialize.. Well this year, we had one. And it did bring the PV and the cold. but the rest of the equation seems to be lacking so far.

Looks like a great weekend to head for the hills and go out to Deep Creek... a foot plus via 10-1 ratios.

To be clear, I do not like this “torpedo” pattern for SNE. I’m just not convinced that we improve our odds of success or make out better snowfall wise with a dramatically slower pattern. And certainly it’s better for tracking mentally than having everyone here placing all their chips in D10 long shots and complaining about lack of activity in between.

Arctic surge for the coming weekend into early next week into the northeast is first class cold for any point in Winter, never mind December 15th. Ouch!

Mid 30s sfc temps should preclude much if any accumulation regardless of p-type.

Yeah and so far all the JV models agree so one should expect the euro to follow suit. GFS AI actually has a better event but also a step backwards.