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Ya, they’re bored. That’s all it means.

It likely will not flip positive long-term because of subsurface warmth in the extratropical W pac from the semi-permanent La Niña state that we’ve been in. So if it flips (I’m confident it will, it won’t last). PDO is very slow to respond and it’ll take a multi-year Nino state to reverse it, just like it took a multi year Nina state to get it where it is today. To get that multi year Nino we need a stretch of Modoki’s just like during the 2010s. East based supers are not very conducive unfortunately. I think it’ll we will get that favorable stretch in the 2030s, but just to be clear, my position on this is that a +PDO in the 2030s will not be the reason for any favorable pattern in the E, it’ll simply be a consequence of a multi year modoki/favorable pattern.

I think the line is "she shaved her legs then he was a she"

Yeah I saw that. Highly unlikely. Some sort of hybrid warm seclusion coastal, definitely possible. The perfect storm, which started as a typical cold core nor’easter absorbed hurricane Grace. That’s never happened before (recorded) or since. .

The fact people are out of the woodwork early means something.

Low of 52. No rain here. Interesting couple of weather days ahead. Big win for the Brewers last night.

Ya…I get it. It(the know it all comments)infuriates me though. Oh, I thought he was a he?

91.6 yesterday 66 now Gotta love damn near 30F temp drops

We are definitely on the same page. If we do not get a handle on this asap, we pass a point of no return. Positive feedback loops overwhelming take over. That’s where I think the real threat that isn’t modeled excists. How do you model and account for something we do not fully understand. Then what happens to humanity at 5c? Certainly we aren’t supporting 8 billion with 2/3’s of the earth uninhabitable. Worst case scenario we can go further (though I’m not sure it’s possible) and go full hot house earth. Thats obviously a species ending event. .

I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.

Be careful…James is watching you.

You were resisting me on the importance of the 30C warm pool with respect to forcing when it was modeled south of Hawaii, and I was arguing it would compete with the east-based El Nino, but now that there is support for it getting further east it's full-steam ahead. lol

RIP NAM

Scott says no lol….Tip says we may have already seen our nor’easter…. easy to say when it’s 9-10 days away. But…

Winter 2026/2027 Snowfall Forecast: How October Data Changed Your Region's Outlook » Severe Weather Europe

Thanks for the elaboration. We can agree to disagree. I don't think it's the <20C waters that is the issue, but rather the continued high-octane OHC that has been building in the western portion of the basin relative to the eastern section over the past decade plus. Obviously the west PAC has always been warmer given the Walker Cycle, but I think part of the reason we have seen this barrage or La Nina events this decade is due to the growing disparity between the west/eastern basins as a product of CC augmenting the cool phase of the multidecadal cycle. Sure, now we have the unprecedented magnitude of this El Nino finally working to restore some balance, but I have a hard time believing there won't be any resistance.....I think we are seeing that with respect to the lethargic rate of recovery of the PDO, most prominently evidenced by the warmth building east of Japan, as well as the residual disconnect between the El Nino and sensible weather over the course of the summer and into the fall. This battle is why I feel the forcing is modeled west of the intense-El Nino composite.

The reality vs mere notion of an 'existential crisis' is more debatable than a bullet point. No question.... With the ambrosia of empirical data that points to a crisis, a crisis that is geophysically determined by taking said data and implementing in physical/mathematical laws of nature ... no one can say there is no existential crisis with any assurance - in fact, quite the contrary. However, one may personally define crisis differently than the next person. Define crisis: is there a false dawn at the 3am as a fiery wall is imminently cresting the horizon in 20 minutes? No are we in a proven multi-species die off that is presently being considered a mass extinction event ? Yes The problem with acknowledging the latter is in part misrepresentation. That's the problem with "any" misrepresentation - however... I would argue that there are those choosing the wrong information to be true relative to that uncertainty. Because in the whole of it, there is both truth and falsity. As an aside ... there's also a gleaming logical flaw in denialism. If the price of denying is death... why take the risk? You cannot circumstantially be more certain in your denial than is the science in the other direction. So the cost of doing nothing, for what? so we don't have to change... It baffles the mind that this is a position at all.

DTs talking about a repeat of "the perfect storm"

I'm down here in Maryland. My home page is the Mid Atlantic. I'm moving up to the Tug Hill for the winter on Dec 1. I'll be just south of Barnes Corner. I'm going to be chasing blizzards and observing intense lake effect snow bands. Is their a specific group/subforum dedicated to lake effect? I'm looking forward to joining you fokes this winter. I'm ready to chase some supercharged Nino monsters this winter.

This is an excellent read on the area of extreme wind observed around Pensacola https://x.com/bevinswx/status/2109425113624150145?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2. Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php