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Loved his insight. RIP.

Looks like PF and NNE might see some flooding today; looks like a lot of rain coming out of W NY

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area. 920 FXUS61 KCTP 310824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Minimal changes since the last discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. 2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM with nothing more than light rain. The second convective cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream. However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface- based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe. 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest probabilities of thunder in the NW. As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State). The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of Interstate 80. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM) even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some thunderstorms in the area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

That is a *lot* of LTG in last 2 hr (24k+) ending 334am EDT for this time of year to our WNW. CoastalWx may have to pull out his laptop for a LTG PT event for renegade +CG! LOL. At the very least, he should prepare for wicked loud thunder booms under the inversion! Steep mid-level lapse rates all day should give us a couple of rounds TRW+ today. 06z HRRR shows an rather impressive mini-bow echo in ern NY early this evening moving E at nearly 60 mph. Supercell composite not bad in wrn MA/nrn CT/srn VT. ISOLTD "Scott spinner?" I would not be surprised if SPC extends the MRGL into western New England at 13z.

heavy downpours in the city..

Same here by Oak Brook. This was about 20 mins later also. Best hail so far this year. Light show was top notch. Been a while a storm like this hit in March imby. Definitely one of the best ones In awhile. Not sure another one will hit like this with the hail but if anything tops this coming up this summer it would have to be a totg or top tier derecho etc

For getting back into it with April we can extend it to the 3rd of April 6z but going forward lets try to stick to the 1st of the month at 6z. There will be times where it won't be perfect. I think we will try to add penalties as we go along for late forecasts.

Got up to 71 here

What should be the due date for this? The 2nd of every month?

Sandy, whatever you chose to call it at at landfall, made landfall over southern NJ. That's more the Mid-Atlantic than NEUS. I was confined things to a hurricane center crossing the New England coast or Long Island. We've had lots of side swipes from hurricanes in the NEUS, but for a direct landfall, sensible wx impacts are typically much greater, esp. for wind and power outages.

This is like after 20 minutes too fwiw

Lightning strikes nearly 20 miles from any precipitation. Very cool. Should get a great light show in about an hour.

I mean are we not counting Sandy on a technicality?

feels like a lot of 80s this March, no?

Severe to the east near Chicago, severe to the west near Des Moines. Here in the middle, crickets.

yeah that would be sick

Easy inch plus here fucking never heard something like this before

It's now been over 34 years since the last hurricane landfall in New England or LI. This is the longest gap by a considerable margin for the region going back to 1851. If you told me in 1995, the next 30 years would be the most active Atlantic TC period on record, but no NEUS landfalls, I would have said, "NO WAY!!!" Yet, it has happened. NEUS may be more vulnerable in "quiet" periods dictated by the AMO, such as 1970-1994. 3 landfalls then, but that doesn't explain the record 5 in 22 years 1938-1960 during the active period 1926-1969. One reason could be that during "quiet" periods, the MDR being less active, and more "home grown" storms that form closer to the E Coast, increasing the odds of a direct hit.

The big problem is these days, there is no accountability for such forecasts, and those that make them will do everything to gaslight to tel you their forecast actually did verify or there is significant skill. I find this disingenuous and unethical. That doesn't mean LR forecasting should not be done or researched, but it is the classic "putting the wagon in front of the horse" here. Also, when you post on social media and want to be taken seriously, one should avoid levity, "flowery" language, and showing implied bias such as the post above ("who's excited for winter"). That is not being objective and scientific. Excited or not is irrelevant to the actual forecast and its skill! On moderated groups like here where it is wx weenies and the like, levity and implied bias are ok b/c we implicitly understand how things are for wx and forecasting and are a niche group, What we post is not meant for public "consumption" b/c they have no clue as to the nuances and idiosyncrasies of the profession, among other things!

Actually, 1972 qualifies as well. Followed two cold ENSOs, high solar, negative AMO, negative PDO. 1968 and 1972 are the best matches on the variables - +ENSO, following two -ENSOs, high solar, -AMO, -PDO.

Nice watch

18z NAM at least salvages Wed afternoon but the garbage slams in pretty soon in the evening.

The El Ninos following two cold ENSOs (not 1 or 3 or more or many neutrals), with high solar are relatively rare - 1968. 1982. 1997. 2009. 2018 each El Nino follows two cold Ensos in a row. Only 1968, 1982, 1997 are relatively active for solar. PDO is negative in 1968 with AMO negative. Both look likely/possible, we've got the cold flipped C from Iceland to all the way around West Africa. Stupidly cold in March as a blend but I doubt those three years will work. Conceptually, you have: 2026: -AMO, -PDO, El Nino, High Solar, after two cold ENSOs for this winter. That's like 1968, next closest is 1982/1997/2009/2018. Anti 2026: +AMO, +PDO, La Nina, Low Solar, after two warm ENSOs for the winter: That's 1995, 2016, 2020 Would look like this in concept - probably not as severe in reality. Somewhere between 2023-2024 and the above image is my guess.

Models forecasting two sig ZR events for NNE this week. It is quite rare to have sig ZR events this late in season in the NEUS (I'll let CoastalWx explain why, IF he knows! ), and in April it is practically unheard of. Please share any events that come to mind. This one from early March 1991 in NY state is the only "big" one in March in the NEUS in recent decades I know of. 3/3/1991 Freezing rain commenced over central and northwestern New York state late on this day and by the time it ended on the 4th, one to two inches of ice had accumulated in many places, resulting in the most costly natural disaster in the history of New York state up to this time. 19 counties were declared state disaster areas. At. one point, nearly 325,000 customers were without power and some did not get power back until the 16th. Storm damage exceeded $375M.