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Robert Rhode has estimated temperatures near the Nepal collapse site at 5200 meters using ERA and local temperature data. Below are several quotes and graphs from his Blue Sky thread. The collapsed glacier site was historically not far from the melting threshold in summer with only a short period of summer melting expected. Unfortunately, global warming has greatly expanded the duration and intensity of summer melt in this region at 5200m elevation. Summer 2026 is estimated to have been 4th warmest on record for this Nepali glacier, behind 2024, 2025, and 2022. In addition, the collapse occurred at the end of a 6-day heatwave that featured several of the warmest August days on record. Given the warming trend, this Nepali glacier had probably been thinning and weakening for years, or even decades. But it ultimately failed during the warmest week in one of its warmest years on record. It would be a hell of a coincidence if global warming wasn't at least partially to blame. https://bsky.app/profile/rarohde.bsky.social/post/3muom4fol422p

Hint of fall in the air this am...61

Other than Krakataus historic 1883 eruption that significantly altered global climate ,I virtually know nothing about this volcano, so I definitely had a few questions that I used to compile this Ai overview with the last question being the most important. The current September 2026 eruptions of Anak Krakatau are highly unlikely to have a measurable impact on the global climate. While this latest eruptive phase has been powerful enough to blast ash and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) plumes up to 50,000 feet (15 kilometers) into the atmosphere—disrupting regional aviation and forcing flight cancellations at Jakarta's main airport—it lacks the catastrophic scale required to alter global temperatures. [1, 2, 3, 4] Why the Current Eruption Won't Change the Climate To alter the global climate, a volcano must inject millions of tons of sulfur dioxide deep into the stratosphere, where it combines with water to form highly reflective aerosol particles that block sunlight. [1, 2] Scale Comparison: The current 2026 event is a localized regional disruption. By contrast, the famous 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was a catastrophic Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 event. It expelled over 20 billion tons of material and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide, successfully lowering average global temperatures by roughly 0.5°C to 1.2°C for several years. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Plume Height & Volume: While the current plume has touched the lower edge of the stratosphere at 15 km, the total volume of ash and gas released so far is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to form a global solar-reflecting shield. [1, 2, 3] Expected Local Weather and Environmental Impacts While the global climate remains unaffected, the ongoing eruption will cause noticeable regional impacts: Acid Rain & Regional Weather: The sulfur dioxide cloud moving west-southwest can combine with local moisture to create localized acid rain and temporary regional cooling/haze. [1, 2] Ash Fall: Significant ash accumulation is affecting air quality, prompting warnings for residents and fishermen to wear eye protection and masks. [1] Flight Disruptions: Heavy ash presence in the upper airspace has severely impacted flight paths across the Sunda Strait and surrounding Indonesian provinces. [1, 2] Unless the activity escalates by several orders of magnitude into a massive, cataclysmic explosion, its effects will remain strictly an expensive, localized hazard rather than a global climate driver. AI Overview There is virtually no chance that the ongoing eruptions of Anak Krakatau (the "Child of Krakatoa") will escalate into a globally catastrophic event on the scale of the famous 1883 Plinian eruption. [1] While the volcano has entered a major explosive phase—sending ash plumes up to 50,000 feet (15 km) into the atmosphere and forcing multiple airport closures around Jakarta—it lacks the physical structure required to repeat its historical baseline catastrophe. [1, 2] The primary reasons a historical-scale disaster is highly unlikely include: The Cone is Too Small: The catastrophic 1883 eruption (a VEI-6 explosion) occurred because three massive interconnected volcanic mountains built up a colossal amount of pressure over centuries before obliterating themselves. The current island, Anak Krakatau, is a much younger and smaller edifice rebuilding inside that old caldera. It simply doesn't have the structural capacity or massive volume of trapped magma to trigger a comparable global climate-altering blast. [1, 2, 3, 4] Low Tsunami Risk From Current Activity: The Indonesian Geological Agency (PVMBG) and disaster management officials (BNPB) have explicitly stated that there is no immediate tsunami threat. While a partial flank collapse caused a deadly localized tsunami in December 2018, the cone rebuilt since then is currently not topographically steep or large enough to trigger a large-scale structural collapse capable of displacing the ocean. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] Magma is Venting Openly: Rather than sealing shut and building up pressurized gases over hundreds of years, the volcano's current plumbing system is completely open. It is freely venting its energy through ash columns, lava fountains, and loud booming rumbles. AI Overview There is absolutely zero chance that a giant flame engulfed boulder from the current volcanic eruption could fall on the person home that you dislike in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. [1]

Apparently it's not too out of the ordinary . Current Outlook: Experts note that today's activity represents normal intermittent unrest for the growing child volcano rather than the rare, centuries-long magma buildup required for an apocalyptic super-blast. [1, 2]

I had to go double check to see if it was real. I thought maybe it was a fake story ,but apparently Mount Anak Krakatau has already had a series of major explosive eruptions, and even bigger ones may be on the way. Mount Anak is the direct offspring of the original Krakatau caldera so I would imagine this could have major implications. I'm no volcanister or historian but this certainly sounds like it could be bad.

That looks beautiful!

@CoastalWx rejoicing?

For the next generation GOES satellites (2032), the plan is to have hyperspectral sounding capabilities onboard. This is far better than the current GOES sounder sensor, and I think will revolutionize mesoscale forecasting, and may make RAOBs obsolete. In a 512x512 km area, it is said it can take over 16,000 soundings every 11 sec!

Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.

I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up May - Sept +AO: 2024 2025 2026 Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes

Not good, but I do find GFS MOS is ok, better than the NAM MOS of the time. NAM does do better in CAD situations though. But the RRFS is coming, much to @CoastalWx's dismay! LOL. Which reminds me, does MOS exist in any form for the HRRR/ECMWF and other models?

The deepening rate of the storm was incredible. BOS recorded min pressure of 965 mb. I think 955 mb is the record non-TC pressure for New England, set at BID 3/7/1932. Bliz of 93 peaked at 960 mb over Mid-Atlantic and filled a bit to 963 once over SNE.

DCA averages 14" per winter. GYDLH! If you thought the 4 years leading up to Jan 2026 were hell? You have no idea. Didn't bother me at all. I long ago "got my fill." After the 1992-93 to 1996-97 period? I recall saying after the Bliz of 97, "I will *never* complain about a crappy snow winter ever again!" That how impressed I was w/ that blizzard as it hit all the high notes for an absolute classic (meteorologically and otherwise),. @CoastalWx I would have thought at least he'd take some cues from that, given how he proudly likes to show off that selfie of himself standing proud in Hyde Park that next day! And then i recall he could not stopping talking about PD2 and the Bliz of 05 (I was shown the BOX radar loop from that more times than I needed to at work!). But really, what should have sealed the deal for him and "excised all demons?" The megablitz Jan-Feb 2015. Hands down. A truly exceptional event/period, and he lived and and loved it, as many others did. Not that you can't still enjoy a big snowstorm and weenie out, but take them as they come, and avoid getting upset when things are inactive. @CoastalWx is old enough to recall how lousy the 80s and early 90s were for snow in SNE. He even had to wait longer than I did b/c he got STIFFED royally in Brockton in the Dec 11-12, 1992 blockbuster while I relished in 18" in Woburn!

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

Lol!

Working overnights...I need something to keep me awake!