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We all know there could be 3 inches on the ground and they’d measure it as a trace

Is that Garth?

Yes yes we do.

I called an old friend for a Christmas week favor.

Uh oh. Gonna upset those winter canceled peeps.lol!

@Typhoon Tip

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1434077554743564&id=100044239995530&http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc2NjI1OTY4NTAwMCwiciI6IiJ9&hpir=1 post on facebook from mitch west weather and also ross elliot

15 days out…chances are good it will. 6 days out and the upper air look is still morphing.

FTR, I don't think we go 1985. That is its own benchmark kind of like March 1993. We perch that year on the mantel and just take it down to look at when we get bored or want to reminisce. I have had that in the back pocket for several, several days. It is why I simply refuse to let the likely brief chinook bother me. A raging NAO took over that pattern above just after the New Year, and brought the hammer for two weeks. It was the one time in my life that I was ready for spring at the end of January. I think what is coming has yet to be defined by d10+ modeling. If the NAO takes over, we are good. If it is one-hit-wonder, the rotten Pac could take back over. But the NAO is so difficult for models to handle. It is interesting tracking with it on the table. To me, I kind of think a back-and-forth pattern witch some strong cold shots looks likely.

I def tape that EURO snowmap right under the mistletoe.

I would take 2" and run in this pattern....no complaints..... Unless Scooter gets 3"-

We always get warm right

A ways to go yet…so this isn’t locked. Sure, could tick WORSE as I’m SURE you’re aware of, but it absolutely could tick better too. The dog crap pattern that you coined yesterday, may just give you a white Xmas after all. How ironic.

One Christmas eve, I was 10 or 11yo, it snowed in Tarboro a few inches. I got my first real sled the next morning. And that was when I used whatever good karma I had. It snowed a few more times that winter and that sled had some dents by spring. Grateful for the memories. Hope the kids get some snow this year.

And if I showed you all this December analog, you might not be enthused. I can only imagine the number of folks who would have canceled winter had the internet been around. It looks almost identical to the last 10 days models for this December. That is ->

Jan and Feb 1996....I don't mind ridging into the Aleutians. Recently, that hasn't been a good thing. Historically, it isn't bad. January 2015 had it. But look at January of 1996. We kind of want hp to not be centered on top of the Aleutians. But AN heights in the Aleutians can be really good as long as it is centered to one side. The ticket is getting a trough to slide in over Hawaii or just to the east of it. A lot of great patterns flirted with disaster at times(torch).

Accu Weather super accurate Jan 2026 forecast. Besides a day or two a bunch of nothing going on...drought guy will not be happy.

EURO looks decent here....but the usual, with the real good being 10mi north of me.

I’m a little skeptical of BL warming that far into interior. 925 starts off pretty damned cold. Like -7ish. It does warm decently but that’s a lot of warming to happen in 6-8 hours to erode the sfc. Def vulnerable in the usual coastal plain spots where southerly flow hurts but up in your area and anywhere else deeper into interior I may hedge a little colder. Esp this time of year with really weak insolation.

It's been the same Niña base state, despite Niño in 23/24, so I'd believe it.

Cloudy as well. I don't like a sunny Christmas. You can leave the outdoor lights on and people will be able to see them better...

Here is the difference between the mean and actually what the individual members depict. As is, that not a slam dunk warm pattern. Many of those are BN for temps or headed that way within the next slide or two. When you look at the mean, it is easy to assume that we are headed for a warm pattern. It is why the deterministic models have to be given a bit more weight than normal.

That's not ridge bridge................................. That's euphuked

Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.