All Activity

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain. That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.

Dang it man...just dang it. I'm not sure we in the central MD/DC part of this forum are realizing what failure this winter means for the next 2-3 years...we'd better pull a miracle or the next big snow can't happen until 29/30 at the earliest. Super nino this year...nina next two years, smh That is not dooming: It is the reality of climo. We need to break the snow drought THIS year.

Im down at Lake Keowee but im keeping an eye on this.

I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino". Aug: Sept:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for all of Western NC until 8 PM. We've been under the gun with constant heavy thunderstorms the past hour with frequent lightning. This is ahead of the main line moving in near the border.

LOL I remember that.

Showers 3 days in a row! Thank Jesus!

I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern McDowell County in western North Carolina... Madison County in western North Carolina... Mitchell County in western North Carolina... Southwestern Avery County in western North Carolina... Northeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina... Northern Buncombe County in western North Carolina... Yancey County in western North Carolina... Northwestern Burke County in western North Carolina... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1242 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Erwin to 13 miles southeast of Greeneville to 3 miles west of Newport, moving south at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

Severe Thunderstorm warning for several areas.

Rock-steady

ORD had a low temp of 76° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 76° on September 4th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74°(1971/1960).

Maxed at 93° at both ORD and MDW yesterday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 17 - MDW 16 - ORD 16 - RFD 15 - ARR 14 - PWK 14 - LOT 13 - UGN 12 - DPA

Hello again DMV! Yet another day of rain for ya! Welcome to the Record El Nino of 2026-27!

Just under 0.50 of rain here last month...nothing this month. What is with all these storms hammering greensboro then falling apart as they approach wake co? It has happend numerous times this summer. It's strange.

It’s basically just leaning into a stronger signal for a canonical Nino pattern because the Nino itself is progged to be much stronger than 23-24.

Nasty day. Coc!

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

large MCS/MCC overnight. This particular radar image looks like a smiley face. This place just keeps getting wet

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

Euro blew chunks with the 23/24 forecast thru the fall of 2023. Interestingly, Cfs2 forecast starting mid 9/23 was warm and not canonical Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html