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I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something.

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

Buck shot probably related to short wave timing issues, but that doesn’t make me want to vomit for sure.

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

The snow is great but more importantly how warm is February looking?

Same.with ggem

So when it ultimately phases in and ruins our chance at a good event....we can blame the "new regime", even though the "new regime" is hostile to phasing. I can already see the posts now.

How Low can you go

The motherload of cold keep showing up towards the end of the month. Will be interesting to see where it goes.

Which one is Tyler Loop?.

Was just going to mention that...how the pattern is structured is about as important than anything and I think stuff like this goes overlooked. People see ridge in the west and trough in the east and assume that is good but that is not necessarily the case.

And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?

Euro is FRIGID in the long range too.

It's the same roll over we saw last year, and previous years. It blows. And I bet @Typhoon Tiphas theory on why we are seeing it....

52 here with full sun-snowpack going bye bye

Realistically, good luck. I'm focused beyond that for anything major (sub KU).

Slow and steady increase over the next 6 days and we will be up over 6” on the mean and no time haha

That is one sustained cold look!

Agree Favorable pattern coming up. High chance of a coastal with the favorable PNA.

In the interest of "the more you know", I think you need to better understand what ensembles really are. You are correct that the ensemble mean should outperform the deterministic run, but they don't benefit from any extra input data. The premise of the ensembles is that the evolution of a single forecast could be extremely sensitive to initial condition errors (either due to simply not having enough observation data or even directly due to errors in the measurements) and general uncertainly of the atmosphere. By tweaking the initial states across a larger number of run of the same system, we should in theory better sample the amount of uncertainty with the forecast. You get a range of possible outcomes, some sense of whether the deterministic run is on the right track, and a feel for the degree of uncertainty. If the deterministic run is way different than most of the ensemble, it isn't likely to verify. But if a large part of the ensemble agrees with the deterministic run, the evolution of the deterministic run may have some significant merit. (And if the deterministic run is way different than the ensembles, but many ensemble members agree on some very different scenario, that scenario is very much on the table.) Ensemble construction has now gotten more sophisticated with things like accounting for model physics uncertainty. Ensembles can still be very wrong, as the underlying model will have limitations, and we don't always properly sample the uncertainty in the initial state. And it doesn't help that the version of the GFS used by the GEFS is not the one used by the operational GFS. And an ensemble system shouldn't bounce around cycle-to-cycle as some of them do sometimes. Ultimately, we need larger ensemble systems to fully cover the range of possible outcomes, and AI methods may really help in that area. One final comment: be careful looking at low-res, global ensembles at short timescales, as the differences in the initial states for the members need some time to grow. So they have limited utility in the short range.

The illustration also shows you what I was saying about that kicker. Look how that Ridge axis goes from Northern California right into the Canadian prairies. You definitely don’t want to see that, you want to see that more oriented north to south.

Euro ensembles increased snow through the 17th

Found this on another forum

This. A few 2-4, 3-6 events would work.