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Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row

ICON is a MECS next Sunday.

in a technical sense you're right, because a newcomer that acted like Ji would probably get banned

Let’s see if GFS and Euro do anything similar lol.

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow.

I suspect that 16th system in these recent GFS runs is legit

The EPS has some semblance of a weak PV which would align with the zonal graph.

I have a feeling it will start getting chillier by the last week of March. Hope I am wrong.

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

Temps are looking mild for the next few days, which is a relief from the deep cold. Generally cloudy with scattered snow/mix shwrs possible thru tomorrow. Heating bill will be a little bigger for Jan, but now my furnace can chill a bit. One bad thing that happens every season with my power vented, forced air furnace, is when it runs hard for many days, condensation starts to collect in the vacuum lines. It'll start to miss fire, so have to pull those off, and drain the little bit of water. Those lines connect to solenoids, so I have to lightly blow, and suck back the air in them to make sure they are working properly. Then it's good for the rest of the season. Easy fix. It also has a Trion Air Bear filter system with it, so it cleans the air well. Get 2 years out of it.

My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now

Alright these charts use actuals highs and lows for the POR. BOS streaks of 34 or less and ORH streaks of 31 or less.

-5.0° low at WXW1 -16.5° low at WXW2 Will say that clearing off the car in a t-shirt in -12° WC makes me feel alive.

I agree some of the technical climate discussion whizzes past me. What if there's an informational thread with graphic samples and explanations of basic terms used here? Like FOLKS. I can't find that mentioned anywhere but on this forum. Miller B vs Miller A look MECS, SECS, HECS (I forget what SECS is). Prime hi/lo locations for large snowstorms in mid atlantic Clippers vs coastal formations I think a quick reference guide/thread would help. It could even be added to over time. I usually don't mind banter but when everything turns into banter its annoying and distracting. When all the colorful maps are posted some of us non weather heads would understand better what to ignore (or pay attention to) on various runs. Just my two cents.

The car read -4° 5am this morning. I drove to the city and didnt reach zero until Yorktown Heights on the Taconic which i have never seen. Usually it's significantly colder at the house and temps rise about 15 degrees before I get to the job. The temp read 5° in Harlem which is impressive.

lol at the icon throwing us a bone out of all models

There was CAA in 1934. There were reports on LI in local papers as low as -20. Strongs Neck (i.e., "Setauket") is a windy spit substantially surrounded by water.

NYC is far too developed to reach zero easily. Sure it could happen again if everything lined up.

GFS improved a tick

These guys have been squatting in my yard for months. The words spreading and we have 6 of them this morning. There's 5 in this photo and the 6th out of frame to the left.

I'm curious what the streak is here for sub 50°, I don't think it's been over 45° here since mid November, and that is just a handful of days above 40°, quite impressive cold winter, at least my driveway isn't a skating rink like last year tho. edit: I just checked and appears 11/5 was 50.1°, last time it was 50+ here anyway.

Definitely. I can't tell if the -7°F was more due to radiational cooling or strong CAA. A weather station in Setauket on LI recorded -1°F on 2/8/1934, and -11°F the following night on 2/9. NYC hit -15°F that night (2/9) meaning it was a few degrees warmer on LI during that cold snap, at least in Setauket. Though the Setauket station was closer to the water. That suggests some serious CAA that favored NYC with more cold than LI. I don't have wind data, but I'd assume there was a northerly wind, with a wind over the LI Sound keeping the Setauket station a bit warmer. Depending on wind speed & direction, NYC can get colder than LI. In 2016 NYC hit -1°F, ISP bottomed out around 0°F

That end of Jan AOB 19° streak for ORH was #2 going back to 1949. But I think this app uses hourly data and misses high temps between the hourlies.

I think the emergency delivery guys know how to do it, happened to us when we first moved here, and the driver took care of it. @Ralph Wiggum

I think you mean you hope it is ending ..lol