All Activity

I saw the same shooting star …

Hard to see, but this makes or breaks our storm. Aircraft recon are out doing missions off the west coast.

Slightly weaker but more QPF

I’m keeping a toe in the water. wtf, it’s late January, what else is there to do?

I’m feeling some digital blue crush incoming. Could be the TIPA too.

The GFS is our lord and savior. Accept that truth!

Height lines are not as far north at 72hrs and trough up north and little east of 12z

5h looking good through 75

Tick NW on the AIGFS

Regular GFS is gonna be a dream run

GFS prob on that crack rock

Either OTS or up the Delaware, lol. Actually, that's pretty effing encouraging. May I have the 79 just east of Cape May?

h5 looks actually a good bit better than 12z @ hour 75!

50-75 miles dumps feet . It’s such a beast you don’t need a 40/70 track . It is going to snow

It’s almost like what the northeast would experience with a Norlun Trough.. pretty cool stuff. I also like the trough axis/orientation at 66 on gfs. I think it may look a tad better even than 12z (proceeds to hold breath on analysis)

You take that birthday wish back!

Based on this and the analogs that I shared earlier, I don’t think it’s crazy to keep it on the table. I don’t think we will get 8+, but not a bad look to hope for a 2-3” event. Plus it will be so cold everything will pile up quick .

February thread? Not much to discuss until D10?

It's encouraging that the tracks leaning to the west aren't less deep than the ones east of the benchmark. While chances might have slipped a little bit last night into today, there's still a real possibility of a big one

Wester

Hoping we can get that shifted 50 miles or so west. Being pretty far inland never had so many 40+ mph gusts in a 4-5 hr period with moderate snow falling. 7” plus some prior snow made 2-3 ft drifts.

AI GFS looks like a slight step back on the coastal. Still further west than AI Euro, and it also has that initial slug of moisture further North to start. As others have noted, that might be a way to salvage a small snowfall if the main event fails to develop.

lol, it might even be better

Finished with 19.6" with a mere 0.77" LE for ratio 25.5-to-1. Even without the freakish 6" of 75:1 superfluff yesterday morning, the remainder was near 20:1. It's by far the biggest snowfall with 25+ ratio; next biggest was Feb. 11-12, 2017, when a 1-3 forecast verified 8.0" feathers drifting on a steady light north wind, only 0.26" LE, 30.8-to-1. Nearest cocorahs (Farmington 4.2NNW, about 10 miles NW from here) reported 19.5".

This meso low could mean business.