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37 / 29, Highs in the 40s, will make this the warmest day through next Wed. Rain/ showers pushing through, cloudy once to mid morning. Overall cold Dec 11 - 17th with the coldest 72 hours Sun - Tue highs sub freezing in places one or all 3 days. Snow squall / showers overnight Sat/Sun possible with arctic front reinforcing cold. Moderation to and above normal by the 18th into Christmas as ridging noses east.

Absolutely something to keep in mind. Like dendrite said...this could easily turn into an overrunning pattern. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the H5 charts but the sfc may not always connect. Remember back in like 2017(?) the Great Plains were under like 560 heights and it was widespread single digits at the sfc lol because they had that stout Arctic high.

We have seen below normal temperatures every day with the exception of one day since Thanksgiving Day. This pattern looks to continue for at least the next week. We warm enough today that except for areas in Northern Berks and Lehigh counties we should see mainly rain showers. We turn colder tomorrow and will see some light snow chances both Friday night and again during the day on Sunday.

Just went to a WWA here for 2-4" of mixed precip and a light glaze of ice, Beats plain rain though.

Nam gets some light snow in on Friday, DC to the south at around 10.

Thats fine with me. I read previous times where Decembers that featured a mostly -PNA have a following Jan with a overall + PNA. Hope that repeats next month, along with some timed moisture. Even a little snow would be nice.

Over 90% success rate for 14 out of the last 15 La Ninas spanning 30 years so you are mistaken.

GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas

This is going to erode most of the negative departures we have for the month. The worst of the worst.

Might as well just close the shades till January: wide left, wide right, wide right, wide left, wide left.

Yeah, it's increasingly likely we see a reshuffle, which makes sense obviously because we're running massive negative departures, but the devil is in the details.

Wolfie?

Sort of a chain reaction effect, with short term changes with the current trough in part leading to the changes for the clippers.

Lots of cold air lurking just up north. This warm up won’t last long. Unfortunately it may happen right at xmas

...and a Melt Outbreak for some people here lol

someone said wait til 48-72 hrs to jump on board-that makes sense too vs a week out

right... 74 in Central Park, and 68 in BTV, too

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

I drove up to Philipsburg this morning from Three Springs and it was a consistent 25°F on the ride up and temps got to about 29°F currently. Cold rain coming today. Beautiful.

Merry Warm up. Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter. I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.

along with scattered rain showers

It's a bit deceptive outside now at least imby in southwest Garrett County. Temp is 44 with the sun shining - hardly what you would expect for a blizzard warning (begins in 45 minutes). In fact, the last blizzard warning I had last winter, the day ended up being sunny for 90% of it with next to no snow and very moderate winds. But today, I've had multiple gusts exceed 50 MPH and if/when the snow begins, it'll be tough going. So...bring it!

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

Squall potential faded away about a day ago, and the associated winds as well. Very poor handling in the short term by guidance.