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Broadly conceptualizing ... Baroclinic systems expand there influence due to frontal synoptic forcing... and temperature gradient related mechanics. Barotropic tropical systems are by physically drawn to core ... this thing's going for Category 3 intensity with that NAM look there - probably a erroneous solution.

Pretty typical meh modeling on this system. Either way looks like some dreary weather this weekend. But been back and forth between light stuff and heavier amounts for days and even inside 48hrs it’s bouncing around.

Brutal for LI/CT shoreline and NJ

Yeah, the NAM's pretty much going 90th percentile full profile conversion straight to a tropical entity with that solution As such, it's contracting

Thanks. Not saying it’s right obviously but that would be nasty across much of the area.

An updated version of BEST is available, write up is here: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-412/ Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring Robert A. Rohde, Bruce Calvert, and Zeke Hausfather Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regression Kriging framework that incorporates physically informed predictive fields. The land analysis uses 58,311 weather stations, updated to reflect the latest source archives, and includes separate reconstructions for TAVG (1750–present), TMAX, and TMIN (both 1850–present). Sea surface temperatures are derived from HadSST4, with spatial detail improved using predictors from the ORAS5 ocean reanalysis. The land and ocean fields are merged into a unified product with a refined coastal blending method. A new uncertainty ensemble is introduced to quantify reconstruction and coverage uncertainty, enabling propagation of errors into derived metrics. The resulting Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR) dataset offers a globally complete, monthly resolved temperature product suitable for applications ranging from global trend analysis to regional climate impact assessments. The current BEST-HR dataset described in this paper has been archived at Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20428381 alongside the merged weather station data used to generate it DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20427092. Monthly updates to these datasets will be provided primarily through the Berkeley Earth website.

We need it over here. The last event was an inch or less , while most places west of the bay had 2-3", more in some cases.

I can just imagine what the NE forum is doing right now... I bet they are in mid season form.

The 3Km NAM replacement

NAMS barely rain through Sat nite here

Thanks. 1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see. 2. Let’s see if today’s update is warmer. 2. You may have not seen my edit: “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”

3K NAM is a horrible outcome for Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay, LI.

Please Explain Don.

Going to be tough to nail this down

Yeah but the old NAM has be getting over 1.5 inches and the new NAM has me getting a Trace. The placement of the L on Sunday are way different as well.

They both suck, so why bother looking lol.

Man how can the 2 NAMs be so different in the outcome.

12z HRRR would be wild

3k is so different from 12k

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted. I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days. Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal. not -1 ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational. 570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way. I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long. We can definitely still get it done.

Its all going to come down how that other low that is now 300 miles or so.east of Florida interacts with our storm

Didn’t crack the 40’s. Low was 50.7 .