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The only thing I disagree with here is the negative NAO. Our big -NAO years like 09-10 and 10-11 were near the solar minimum. We are descending, but solar activity is still a lot higher than it was during those years. I would lean towards more of a neutral to slightly positive NAO. The more important factor is the fall pattern, we have diverged from the bone dry fall pattern that continued into the winter. We saw a mid fall shift from an extended dry stretch (leading to drought conditions), and it has shifted to a stormy pattern with frequent coastals. This combined with the other factors mentioned has me very optimistic about this upcoming winter for New England, even if the negative NAO idea doesn’t pan out. When I think of a big snow pattern the first thing I think of is NOT a Greenland block, it’s a tall ridge over Montana.

A little snow mixing in with the rain in Franconia notch

Each of the models for next week have a different solution. The two upper lows and the hurricane are all in different positions at day 5. Plus the strong block to the north. So we are getting the windshield wiper effect with a new solution every run. There is even a 3rd upper low now showing up later in the forecast period dropping down from Canada to complicate matters.

A glorious 55 for the high.

We do know that more real time data should result in better model forecast outcomes. However 0.01% to 0.028% is pretty low. I would guess we had a lot less in the 1970s and 1980s?

Pretty consistent forecast for our highs from GYX. SAT 53/34 SUN 50/34 MON 50/33 TUES 50/35 WED 50/36 THUR 50/37 FRI 50/37 Also 30% PoP going to 50% Tues-Fri. Some showers approaching, maybe with a handful of graupel, maybe it dries up before getting here.

Ensembles are picking up a fairly strong amplification on October 30th.....GEFS and EPS both. It is a pretty strong signal.

We may never know for sure but the loss of weather balloon data is probably having some effect on the model performance. https://theconversation.com/typhoon-leaves-flooded-alaska-villages-facing-a-storm-recovery-far-tougher-than-most-americans-will-ever-experience-267423 But as the storm approached Alaska, everything went sideways. The weather model forecasts changed, reflecting a faster-moving storm, and Halong shifted to a very unusual track, moving between Saint Lawrence Island and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta coast. Unlike Merbok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one’s final track and intensity weren’t clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska waters. That’s too late for evacuations in many places. Did the loss of weather balloon data canceled in 2025 affect the forecast? That’s a question for future research, but here’s what we know for sure: There have not been any upper-air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm was moving toward the Bering Sea. Did any of this cause the forecast to be off? We don’t know because we don’t have the data, but it seems likely that that had some effect on the model performance.

I think that's correct, but if I recall, the first one was a freeze watch? Did it actually hit freezing temperatures? I don't think we got below freezing here in Allegheny, anyway. Technically, it also says only freeze watches are discontinued after the first fall "killing" freeze. Freeze warnings may be issued at any time during growing season. I don't know how much sense that makes in autumn, but at least that's how they are described. https://www.weather.gov/pbz/wwacriteria

High of 58 after a low of 37. Nice Fall day with plenty of leaves falling in the wind.

you seem a bit traumatized, dude. -NAO blocking has been in place for pretty much all of NYC's largest storms. to say that Greenland blocking is not beneficial is untrue

Not looking forward to playing softball tonight. It’s downright chilly outside

temps were rapidly dropping as well

disastrous and looking more likely

I saw double that posted somewhere, but regardless that could be a horrible problem there.

-NAO blocking does us no good and can actually hurt if we get a steep SE ridge that links with it. That’s happened several times the last few winters. It can also keep everything suppressed to hell if we have a fast Pacific jet.

Pretty significant shift east on 18z spaghetti plots...no?

Above, you will find October scoring estimates to be finalized by November 1st, as well as the updated annual scoring with some adjustments yet to come for October. In general the scoring for October was over a rather narrow range and ranks only changed at the bottom of the table. RodneyS has the highest score for the month at current estimates and while we are both a long way back of the leaders, RodneyS and I are locked in a close battle for the extreme forecast award with Scotty Lightning not far behind us. Normal is also doing better than most of the forecasters at hitting extreme (cold) forecasts but overall in points, Normal is now close to Persistence and behind all forecasters (after pro-rating scores for those without a full set of forecasts). Our consensus is basically tied with Tom at the top of the scoring table (one point currently separates them). Below, please post your November forecasts ... ...

Yeah, We just don't know right now, No one does.

Roughly 23" (595mm) Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

This thing is still 5 plus days out…solutions still TBD.

Bad news for jamaica if euro is right. That is like feet of rain.

It kept just turning it into Hispaniola. I think it actually thought it was a well developed and coupled circulation so it assumed it would go with the steering flow? It was literally the only model showing it.

Eh, I'm not sold on that yet. If we get a cold December then I think you're on to something, but we seem to have this post Thanksgiving / early December torch every year the resets things.

Why what was it showing…how did it embarrass itself?