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Long as it stays active I don’t care if it’s warm or chilly in March. I can’t stand boring weather in March bc it’s typically such a volatile month. And we still need rain

Anthony posted a couple yesterday.

The first half of next week looks interesting with a strong north-displaced zonal flow. That’s the best pattern for getting steep mid-level lapse rates up into the Great Lakes.

These usually “bust” on the warmer side when you are waiting for cold air to advect in…sometimes they work out. But I’d want to see an acceleration of the better airmass and more importantly, I want to see big omega tonight.

We'll be teased with a marginal or slight risk Wednesday poking into Fairfield County

I think were fine if we get decent rates. Euro op looked fairly flaccid, but AI increased qpf. 44 to 38 here with a ne breeze, same for lwm

One would think you’d see some big clown range OP hits if the mid month period is going to be anything worth while.

You’re going to need a good, sustained push of CAA in the zr zone because of latent heat release. 3-5” in the max sn zone looks good to me…either side of an AFN-BVY line. If there’s a junk +1C layer aloft that could wreck havoc on the southern end of that if you’re battling junk precip for awhile.

Well remember now, that includes everything that fell since like 6am yesterday. I check my gauge each morning, so my 24-day runs from morning to morning, ala Cocorahs.

It is still not available on PW... unless you go to their beta site which is hard to navigate.

I think there could be some non-zero chances into next week. CSU MLP page looks "decent enough for this time of year" for next Wednesday, for example. It's always going to be slim pickings in March (and even most of April) - but I'm intrigued that as soon as warmer temps rolled in some of the predictive tools ramped up just a touch. Give us some unseasonably warm/humid days in April into May and something will probably pop off with how dynamics systems can still be that time of year.

Not saying the Canadian is right but you can see the EURO now putting a high right behind that Thursday front to our north. If you briefly have enough spacing with the lows in the flow and it undercuts, could get a sneaky wave that works. Of course long shot, but you can see that wave on the GFS and IMO Euro trend somewhat towards it.

Gfs aifs is a big torch tue and wed. Ec aifs is well into the 60s both days. Gfs is obviously struggling to get the warmth in there. Ec is warm both days but is a late warm fropa wed, Ggem is warm tue but wedges up here wed. Icon is similar. I think AIs are overdone…just gotta see how how much oomph the potential wedge has Wed.

Reason why I have no desire to live there. Or England for that matter. I just cannot do it anymore. Grew up in NW Ohio and left for a lot of reasons. One being a winter full of gray skies day after day. I think what really is bad is a lot of the time areas within 20-30 miles around here are under full sun. As the gloom seems to be all stuck over this area and Northern Loudoun County. It is 52 and cloudy with 91 percent humidity. So cold, damp and gray. I feel like I need to double up on my Vitamin D pills just to have a sunny disposition. ETA guess what just kind of came out… through the clouds but still will take it.

Idk, this 78 and sunny is pretty nice… .

I think it has a shot because it will be night...if this were midday deal, forget it.

central park was 9 degrees above the record

Most definitely. The pellet stove was installed by them prior owners of our house about 6 months before we bought it, otherwise I never would have installed one personally. At some point I would love to switch over to a gas insert. I hate having to dick around with the pellets, and constantly clean the thing out

Could be. This is rather tenuous...

There’s no cold air until up into Central Maine . Any kind of advection and low dews is gonna take half the night

Here we go yall. GGEM is always right in the long range baby!

They are probably going to stick with 1”-3”. I mean, we’ll see at afternoon update.

Yeah... still pretty warm here. I'm not buying the aggression of the HRRR

Looks like temps in your area are in the low to mid 40's currently and HRRR has you down to freezing at the surface by 5 PM. We'll see.

Sorry but it’s also tiresome to read negative comments like this. First of all, we’re just entering a long torch. Secondly, it’s normal/common to have NN or BN in parts of March obviously. There’s not even an indication of overly or longlasting cold as of now but rather just maybe 1-2 normal for mid March chilly airmasses resulting in a few BN days, which I’m looking forward to. The Euro Weeklies then warm it right back. Will it “accomplish” anything? Yes, of course, as it will give the SE a break from the current torch. I can’t wait. Also, consider this. Of the last 6 Marches, 4 have been AN, 2 NN, and 0 BN. And the current March looks to end up AN or at the coldest NN thanks to the current long torch.