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I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

I was thinking similar to 2015 as far as residual MC influence when I did my early polar and Pacific work this summer in an effort to start conservative and err on the side of caution, but I am starting to lean less than that now.

classic

Keep coming here more often.

This makes sense, though, if you consider that the N hemisphere was not at all redolent of El Nino throughout the summer, likely due in large part to the antecedent state of the extra tropical Pacific. If that were to begin to change, this is what it would look like. I think October will be the month that will really be telling, which I know you have posted data to the same effect.

It's not an either or? We do not 'replace' the perils of Climate Change with an overarching risk of AI evolving without restraint - these two are in tandem, mutually exclusive aspects. Heh, if we want to be quantitatively on point it is more sufficed to say the combination of that tandem just increases the odds of calamity. There's this idea of the "Doomsday Clock". The idea is 'how close' is humanity to inducing global catastrophe, originated out of 'The Bulletin of Atomic Physicists'. It's not replacing in their assessment, either. The threat catastrophe can be a cocktail of causalities. Climate Change and AI are among them. So it may have just been clumsy word choice there but you'd be surprised how many people will actually drop one in lieu of the other and base their energy there as the proper response to scaling urgency. When the truth is ... we could be fucked for both reasons independently. The other thing... I'm speaking in terms of perils and risks... 'Extinction'? Mm, that's a bit heavy - again, it may just be word choice in the moment; I assume you know that extinction is absolute. I would lean more so on population correction. Whether we choose to be in control of that reduction or not it is likely to occur. And not just among our species, but global biology - this latter aspect is already underway. We could philosophically argue that it is beginning in humanity, with the crashing birthing rates among developed worlds. The crime in it all is that the other species we share this world with never had a say in the matter. Snarky digression: Ancient scriptures seem to lean like humanity has some intrinsic rights over this world bestowed upon them that places them as having both import and entitlement above all others. That smacks like a means to explain away this iniquity. Meanwhile, the logic cracks with the god idea when objectively such an infinitely powerful all good agency cannot simultaneously exist, while also allowing the crime iniquity to happen ... That means they or it are or is either not infinitely powerful, or, not infinity good. Which then means, they or it cannot be a "god". Heh...I just walk away from the dogma. Yes, an all-out extinction is non-zero probability; however, it is still low probability. Firstly, it would be hard to completely extinguish 8.5 billion - the number is so large that there's as to increase the probability that small enclaves and/or regions well-managed for resources, perhaps circumstance exclusionary for geographic isolation disconnected from the Industrial reliance. An acceptance and perhaps of better definition, adaptive, probably persist in a worse case scenario. As an aside, the semantics is bothersome with me regarding AI. All walks and dimensions of society, from social media to television, movies and literature, to the chit chat before board meetings get under way, to the water coolers, the bus stops outside the office and back, everyone everywhere keeps referring to AI as being a threat. AI is not a threat. The human beings that are engineering it are the threat. There's something of an oddity when AI execs "warn" of singularity this, and self-determination conscious emergence in these systems ( which I personally believe they are full of shit on that specific aspect - extremely complex discussion content that even ponders the spiritual ) - it almost seems like they are trying to divert attention to the fact that they are promoting and work internally to fucking make that happen, but getting the Idiocracy distracted by the specter of it all. OR, they are full of shit and just propagandizing the whole of it because they want to position them selves capitalistically. I don't know, but there's logical flaws everywhere. While I also don't downplay the usefulness of it, at all. It is a powerful tool. Proven so. I've personally worked with "Claude" and found it to be a synergistic experience as it assists in creative problem solving...etc. This is also coming from the ambit of Mathematics and advancing physics, et al.. So it is real. But at the end of the day, if AI does become that threat, then the people that current advertising it yet still engaging, are darkly culpable.

Seems like everything is a stalled front or just pop up randomness these days. Is it a result of generally more moisture in the air? Not sure how to describe it but we don't get the light-moderate, large precip shield type systems anymore. Also feel this is why forecasts have a difficult time pinpointing the winners and losers.

I think he needs to do a better job of emphasizing that a full reversal is less likely than a stretch and/or reflection event, as he completely neglects the solar and QBO aspects, which are pretty hostile. I could see something like the scenario he laid out from January 2016 (I used this season as a strong polar analog), but I don't think a full reversal is as likely as he seems to intimate.

Yeah, we could see a subtropical or tropical system eventually form next 2 weeks somewhere to our south. Not what the waterlogged parts of the region want to hear. Even if we don’t get a well defined system, the high moisture could lead to heavy downpours with weak lows and stalled fronts.

In Memphis for work, already 76 degrees, feels like 80, with a forecasted high of 98 feeling like 105. Ready to get back home.

This time of the year with a HP in southeast Canada and warm waters in the central Atlantic favors home grown Tropical Storms development with the possibility of a storm tracking towards the east coast and possibly Gulf of Mexico. Add to that the MJO tracking through phases 8-2-1.

Low of 67. Brief bouts of the muggies to get through today and Sunday before things turn Fall-like next week. Looks like a nice little storm line on the approach here this morning, curious to see if it arrives with much punch. Onward.

September 500mb ridge axis continues to be much further south and stronger than past developing super El Niño events. This has lead to the record warmth across the CONUS this month. At the least the trough near the West Coast matches with the other years. But it’s a weaker area of low pressure than 1997.

The models showing the heaviest rains along and south of I-80 were wrong. Only picked up 0.25" here. QC had a few rain drops.

Uh oh....Larry is aroused

You also have to consider potential hybrid patterns and what that may look like. I think it's safe to assume that there will be more of a traditional El Nino response than 2023 and even 2015.

More of the same since the big 2007 shift. So most years making a forecast for a minimum in the 4s has done very well. The exceptions were a little above in 2009, 2013 and 2014. The only years below 4 million sq km were 2012 and 2020. My guess is that we would need a strong dipole pattern like we saw from 2007-2012 to challenge the 2012 record. 2020 came the closest but quickly fell behind during the early August period which had the big storm back in 2012. I suppose the other possibility is that we get a really warm Arctic winter into spring some day that allows us to surpass the 2012 with a less extreme summer. But that hasn’t been the case so far as all these weak dipole summers since 2013 have made the 2012 minimum to challenging to pass. The volume remains so low with the loss of older sea ice that even a very favorable pressure pattern this summer like this one can’t get us back to pre 2005-2007 extents. While there was significant cold near the North Pole at times early this summer, it was too narrowly focused to do much. The overall Arctic was near the warmest summer on record. This became obvious with the recent record open water close to the North Pole. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/new-abnormal The new abnormal THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2024 Since 2007, the Arctic sea ice minimum has dropped below 5 million square kilometers (1.93 million square miles) every year, except in 2009, 2013, and 2014, when extent barely crossed the 5 million square kilometer mark. Such low extents would have been hard to imagine in the 1990s, when extent averaged 6.46 million square kilometers (2.49 million square miles). This persistent new normal, and the related losses of most of the old and thick ice, are prominent characteristics of the new, warmer Arctic—resiliently low in ice cover despite more than a decade of variations in seasonal climate patterns and oceanconditions.

Despite the Euro having something in the Gulf late, ironically the crazy GFS has no Gulf TC on its 6Z for the 1st run since way back at 18Z of 9/14! It just has one moving just N of Cuba (not in Gulf) at 384.

Starting the day out with minimums near 70°. So the warmer minimum departures this month have been a bit more impressive than the maxes. The cool down next week follows this theme. Clouds, easterly flow, and rain will keep the maximum departures cooler than the minimum departures.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Other than rain this afternoon