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albany or bust.

We just need Mainejayhawk to AI a pic of you trying to repair a broken weed whacker while Scooter is in the background laughing surrounded by feet of snow.

Agreed, 12.5 matches surrounding Obs and is much more reasonable. You & I were close with our predictions!

Weren't you the one who was saying that the last storm wouldnt be widespread 2x digit snowfall totals without substantial secondary development?

Up to 45” depth at 1,500ft.

The way the math really works…that .4 qpf mean is the product of different outcomes averages. The truth is the median snowfall for IAD is nothing! Thats because about 60% of the eps members have absolutely no snow and are too far east. The mean among the other 40% that have a more amplified solution isn’t .4 it’s closer to .8 at IAD. And if the most amplified 20% are correct it’s closer to 1” Qpf. So the math says the most likely outcome is we get nothing. But there is about a 40% chance is a storm and in that case a good chance it will be a significant one with some members already looking like a 1996 type event.

When yall get maps, please post the WeatherNext! Or Google or whatever it is lol @wncsnow

My pants are off in the Seaport. Pure DUMPAGE.

big flakes, dumping and stacking

Jesus christ.

Freak naked in your bed? Broken weed whacker laying on floor

Stowe City right now

Worth every penny. Love their soundings too.

The hopes and dreams of weenies everywhere! Don’t underestimate our collective power!

Didn'tyou have that yesterday? Or was it more like sand?

Hi Corey . I hear you squeeze a good box .

From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West): The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina. Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1) The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle. • Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F. • Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F. • Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F. East Coast Weekend Outlook • The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event. • Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down. • I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night.

What’s gonna pull it west? Seems like the trough/ridge position will be decided by Wednesday. That will be telling

This is why AI will never be able to predict snow totals. The dataset is awful

I made several posts about this in the disco thread for the last storm regarding all of the models (not just the Euro), and why they have predictive difficulty more than 3 days out....I have created multiple complex models in finance involving delta hedging equity and futures options for prime dealers, so I have a pretty good handle on what I am looking at....my posts go into the "whys" of what you are asking..... Short answer/cliffs if you don't feel like searching- they aren't designed to nail down specifics this far out, just probabilities....that being said, I don't want to be a buzzkill- it is still fun to speculate based on what you are seeing now on the models in concert with upper air features Probably the lone exception is hurricane modeling; it is different and much more granular bc of the large amount of metadata infused starting early on from the tropical wave stage

I love snow but I hate driving in it and trying to find parking. Its a pain in the ass. People are double parking and parking in weird ways. Its a big mess

I know!! Can we please get one good storm to just behave and trend towards us and not away. This is emotional abuse and neglect by Mother Nature [emoji23] .

My area ended up with a bit less snow than other surrounding areas. After the squall, the new depth was around 15.5”, which probably would’ve been 18-19” before compaction. Definitely a few inches less than ORH proper but as I said before the storm, I would’ve been thrilled with 12”.

WeatherNext is the Alpha model