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That 25th-28th timeframe does coincide w/ the MJO potentially trekking into phase 8. Yeah, I looked, but kind of felt like it might impact EC weather. With HL blocking in place, a phase 8-1-2-3 of the MJO circuit, and it being mid-winter....I have seen A LOT worse at this time of year from both teleconnections and modeling.

juiced up system at that golden timeframe of Jan 28 on the GFS, but it cuts. Nice to see a big storm consistently show up at that timeframe, though.

I don't think that is being mean spirited lol..

Respectfully to all you folks down east, but I may crash out on in a historic way if I watch Southport score again.

Ended up narrowly edging out 1939 for 5th place in the official records. Quite the turnaround, considering the first 15 days of the month were around 1.7F BELOW the 1991-2020 mean, per PRISM's analysis.

Not only is the GFS just awful it’s completely boring the next 15 days lmfao

The GFS "Includes Sleet" snowmap is about to be EPIC. Will add to this post when it loads. UPDATE: it was NOT epic.

And the 12z GFS shows the risk around the 25th or just after. The 0z Euro was more of a cutter type of system...but both kind of slide across w/ very cold air just to the north. The 12z GEM likely got lost late in the run w/ the weird West Coast stuff that models have had all winter - and yes, the West Coast does get precip during winter, but maybe not quite like that. Models are going to struggle a little bit as very cold air is potentially going to get trapped around the 25th(see my recent posts on the matter). How far west that cold goes will depend on the strength of the SER in the East. If it drops into the central or eastern Plains, we likely would be in business.

The funny part is it never corrects itself. I’ve seen countless threats that had interference but it was overcome either due to vort strength or one of the shortwaves changed slightly. But we’ve never trended away from it recently.

Thanks. I know we've talked about CLE's measuring in the past. It just sticks out more when locations directly adjacent measure 2x as much . Looking forward to the upcoming pattern... we'll have snow flying for several days it looks like.

It’s been real easy the last 4 years to call out stuff that isn’t favorable. This year it’s cold, but as many of us have said…there’s tons of interference. Easy to see.

Locked and loaded for a significant lake effect snow event in North Central Indiana and extreme Southwest Michigan. Low end amount would be 3” if the band doesn’t set up overhead, but it will wobble before and after parking itself. High end would be 10”+. There may be a secondary band that sets up east of the main one. I just hope I don’t end up in between.

My approach is knowing I have no control over meteorological destiny so I shall enjoy each day I am well and reasonably strong. I used to get upset over this but much less so now.

and frankly, that characteristic of negative interference, in and of itself, has been the only aspect that has demonstrated solid unflappable continuity.

I’ll give 1/18-19 another day or so to trend better but otherwise yeah, we wait until post-1/20

hopefully we can eke something out before the 20th... the pattern looks to open up after the 22nd as more moisture gets involved and cold becomes more entrenched

Sometimes you just see things for what they are and can call it out.

Historically, about 30% of winters with similar or less snowfall than 2025-2026 through January 12th went on to see 25" or more snow. My thinking coming into this winter was 15"-25". I still think that's realistic. In any case, here's the historical data for Central Park.

Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.

Difference this time is Canadian looks the same through day 10. We shall see…

I'm seeing nothing but negative interference among an anomalously fast S/W succession off the NE Pacific ... effectively preventing organized cyclogenesis either in time, or not at all, right out to the end of both this 12z GGEM and GFS operational model runs. The former goes out to D10 ... the succeeding week bears no significant change in that behavior by the GFS. Not sure what is causing it, but just observing 4 major waves passing through the +PNA trough domain in just 100 or so hours worth is an overly crowded tussle creating in-harmonic dissonance

That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched.

WB 12Z GEFS

I literally have not even got the snow blower out and gassed it up yet. I winterized it last year, put it away and have not touched it. Winters are becoming non existent in my area, except for the cold. /rant

Take the lawn chair out as Paul suggested.