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Yeah, that is very close. I would think mountain communities might meet that criteria, but they guard that designation with their lives in E TN.

Columbia honking pretty loud for midlands and upstate SC https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

I would rather be where you are than anywhere, except maybe the central eastern North Carolina coast .

The 3k has a 6 inch dot close to me now.

We’re currently getting nammed

Sundown: GFS [Maverick NAM suddenly flies off after refusing an easy shot on Jester Euro] Hey, where the hell are you going? Maverick HRRR: Uh... It's not good. It doesn't look good. Sundown NWS: What do you mean, "it doesn't look good"? It doesn't get to look any better than that. I just can't with this storm anymore...

Low res NAM splatted my area

The Hires NAM looks great so far, lol.

It took me from 1 inch to 4 inches.

Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout.

It gets so confusing for amateurs like me..I don't doubt what you're saying at all about the HRRR...but I swear someone earlier today said the HRRR was by far the most accurate for this last storm.

The northwest side of TRI has to score early with this. The southwest side(west of I81) has prolonged and strong forcing due to orographic lift on northwest flow. The snow(as I mentioned to Stove) started here in Kingsport about 1:00PM which was early for most modeling by about an hour. The original timing was....19z -12 - 5 = 2:00PM. Though the storm is unusual w/ its dynamics...the stronger accumulations near the mountains are common when the incoming system has a northwest flow forcing component. Kingsport does better when there is backing of any kind and especially if there is Atlantic input. I would think any NW facing area could score well. I have my investment low for KPT, but am pulling for the Euro w/ the same fervor that I pulled for the GFS during the last storm...and maybe a little bit of "little engine that could" embedded in there. Good luck to you all in the foothills...we will live vicariously through you!

I like where we sit in the Charlotte area!

I appreciate the synoptic maps you and Scottie posted. Keeps things tangible and allows comparison with the models when nowcasting. Wish we had more posted more often.

So all kinds of low 500 mb heights expecting to be broken down south. Reminds me of Jan 77

The SREF and HRRR are couldn’t be more different currently . 18z HRRR has basically no snow in most of VA and everything sliding into NC/OBX minus a few inches for VA Beach. SERF has moisture surging ahead even into DC. A few of the SREF ensemble members has as much as 12 inches for Richmond… Lol.

I would be really careful living or dying with the SREF or the HRRR. Both of these models are beyond atrocious. HRRR used to be the old RAP for context.

Through hour 17, the 18Z 12K NAM slower bringing the precipitation in. Let's see if it means anything.

I'm thinking of driving to the coast instead of jumping... but when i get halfway there, the models will change!

They are doing damage control for it/when the forecast busts. I get the get blowback, and especially after last week's storm they are sensitive to their viewer's response if the forecast busts. But ultimately it's bad forecasting to pick the models with the lowest amounts and find justification for why it's going to be correct

Man the short range models Are brutal for eastern NC, brutal dry slot in the coastal transfer. People thought they were getting a significant storm gonna get nothing.

We do care about the pack. We want snow on snow. That’s part of the rush around here. That and usually this type of cold has an expiration date and then it’s back to cutters and rainstorms. The clock is ticking.

Hello NAM nice to join us in Monroe co

Still snowing at the end of this, but a big jump for Chattanooga on 19z RAP

Same.