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Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO. -These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite: -These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

East China

no one's asked me buuut, personally, confidence in any seasonal modeling is lower than even the usual eye-rolling when the model being use has "climate" baked into it's title and/or physical make-up.

Mountain Collective r͏e͏s͏o͏S͏o͏t͏n͏d͏p͏ 9͏3͏8͏ 1͏1͏0 ͏f͏f͏u͏g͏g͏ · Winter is among us at Sunday River! Temps dropped to the mid-20s Saturday night, and the Sunday River team fired up snowmaking on Locke Mountain at 7PM. Sunday River's new snowmaking system is moving 10,500 gallons of water per minute through 2,000+ snowguns across eight interconnected peaks. That’s a lot of snow. An official opening date hasn’t been set... but stay tuned.

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record

Last year was 39.5". Thats slightly below normal, I have no qualms about last winter with excellent snowcover and cold. I enjoyed it more than winters that saw more snow but milder weather and less snowcover. It was on track for above avg snowfall as well, until a no show march. (Works both ways, a big march snowstorm that fluffed up the season total wouldn't save an otherwise bare mild winter). I wasnt trying to soften the blow. Literally just googled strong nino years lol. And im not wishcasting, believe me a milder than avg winter with 30" of snow is not on my wishlist. But its what I see as a realistic shot. We wont know til April. But I will say this. If we end up below 25" id say some bad luck was involved, and if we end up above 35" ill say some good luck was involved.

000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 900 AM CST Thu Oct 22 2026 ...VANCE GETTING STRONGER WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 101.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was re-positioned to near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 101.0 West. Vance is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow northwest to north-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Satellite imagery indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Vance is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

-2016: much less E based Nino In the E US, the mid-Oct ‘15 forecast mean CFSv2 for Feb ‘16 actually verified slightly too warm overall in the E US! Verification of Feb ‘16 (vs 1981-2010): -2024, much weaker and less E based Nino: The mid-Oct ‘23 mean CFSv2 forecast for Feb ‘24 verified too cold NE but wasn’t too far off in the SE and was very close deep SE: Verification of Feb ‘24 (vs 1991-2020): How will it do for Feb ‘27? We’ll see! Yes, although I’m not at all trusting any model, I’m excited about the Feb potential (not Dec at all and not much for Jan though that could very well be transitioning):

Lots of snow when we lived there - Jan 1, 1976 thru Oct 25, 1985 Snow Top depth 1975-76 *132.5" 36" *Includes 39.0" at FK co-op Oct-Dec 1975. Top depth is from the co-op. 1976-77 186.7" 54" 1977-78 121.8" 30" 1978-79 128.2" 33" 1979-80 81.8" 36" 1980-81 108.5" 25" 1981-82 185.8" 38" 1982-83 105.5" 24" 1983-84 171.0" 65" 1984-85 113.8" 34"

Ah... well, if he's gotten it accepted by whatever peer reviewal process is required for operational/official usage than it is what it is... but who knows - Personally I have a handful indexes that are Johnisms haha

Winds are definitely picking up in Hendersonville.

clinging to the february cfs like a displaced ukrainian child clinging to a doll

for a 2000 sq ft house, average temp 33 vs 30 is about 10 gal a month. I'd pay the $50 extra dollars a month for cold/snow vs 33 and rain.

28° for the low. Up to 46°

That is Judah’s claim to fame

"Snow Advance Index" ...interesting... never heard of that particular index. Is that his? - guess I'll look it up If it exists it'll be interesting to know what goes into it. Like is it 2ndarily based upon the AO ... +AO is the cold index state in the Arctic domain... whereas the negative phase is actually warm at high latitudes. I've long suspected this season may observe an aggressive recovery take place at some point along the way... perhaps both land snow and sea ice for that matter ... The AO has been demonstratively positive really since the end of summer. Meanwhile, the ongoing prognostics from CPC keep correcting outlooks positive so ...it appears to be a really basal/systemic aspect and not just a ephemeral mode tendency... Having said all that... I think there's been papered work published in recency that upended the Siberian snow cover assumption - perhaps not entirely but lowers confidence in using that metric as a predictor. I'll have to see if that's true still. It was originally studied that cold/cryospheric genesis, aids in colder lower troposphere, which then lowers heights - and that raises hgt at mid levels due to restoring in the total column. That

It's been beautiful. I've seen white roofs here more then once. That's early for my area.

They're all pretty BN in the SE, so they'll all be wrong ir right to one degree or another.

I still think it’s too cold. If I were to reconstruct the expected pattern you just described on a T2M map for the Feb mean, I’d expect more light red in Western Canada and lighter blue in the SE. That CFS map implies deeper and more persistent Arctic cold, which I don’t agree with. As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes.

If true, it's pretty lousy timing. Probably why no one has any excitement about it.

Yes, that is what I find most interesting are the possible implications for Jan 15 th to late Feb. ie. blocking - AO, etc.

Im not sure i can recall the last time we've had this many frosty october mornings in a row.

I would toss any of the years that are <2.0 that just tries to soften the blow, all the super ninos except for one are bad bad here, and the one that isn't is still below normal 15-16. As for my comment about the background state in recent years, I'm talking the last 10 years, which had 1 above normal year, 3 near normal and 6 below normal including the last 4 years in a row. I get you want to shine up this winter some, but eventually you have to look at reality in front of you. The data is bad and we are basically wishing and hoping on luck and nothing else to get us something decent this year.

Not sure how much this is going to help us, I suppose it CAN snow in November but... its likely the impacts of this will be long gone by the time our best snow climo hits. However, I'd be interested in seeing if this kind of event in October increases the chances of additional events later in the cold season.