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Christmas in July starting soon on the Hallmark channel.

Yes cancel winter in June. Thats the spirit .

Hopefully some folks see triple-digit heat indexes!

Heat advisories are up. Bring it on.

Today's Highs: EWR: 85 TEB: 84 BLM: 83 New Brnswck: 83 TTN: 82 PHL: 82 LGA: 81 ACY: 80 NYC: 79 ISP: 76 JFK: 75

Eastern Iowa is gonna get hammered early tomorrow evening with the main wave. Looks like Thursday action may focus more along and south of I-80 due to the morning wave. That morning/early afternoon batch will be severe as well, but may push the main show further south in the later afternoon.

@RedSky I know you're into insects, and I thought of you earlier when I saw this watermelon my wife picked up. (lol)

^Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI): 20-21: Moderate La Nina 21-22: Moderate La Nina 22-23: Moderate La Nina 23-24: Moderate El Nino 24-25: Moderate La Nina 25-26: Weak La Nina ENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak: 76-77: Moderate El Nino 77-78: Moderate El Nino 78-79: Neutral 79-80: Weak El Nino 80-81: Neutral 81-82: Neutral 82-83: Super El Nino Really interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino. 86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's. 95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there. ENSO "evening out" is the theme. It would be interesting to see if pre-1948 followed the same pattern. *The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.

72-73 was followed by a strong la nina (part of a triple la nina), and preceded by a double la nina: 1970-71 - moderate la nina 1971-72 - weak la nina 1972-73 - super el nino 1973-74 - strong la nina 1974-75 - weak la nina 1975-76 - strong la nina

Deep -PDO continues (time sensitive)

Can't it just be ok to have upper upper 70's and low 80's?

Boy howdy, this is one loaded sounding from 3knam for me:

EF1 about 3-4 miles from here. Crazy.

watching the plains outbreak - some of those cell mergers in NE are wild

HRRR for tomorrow

Long range 18z GEFS @384 hr has us as one of the coldest spots in the N. Hemisphere, matching historical ENSO analogs

Model sounding here for 18z is nearly 5000 SBCAPE with minimal to no capping, 87/76 T/Td, and PWAT of 2 inches. Charged! Already felt quite juicy out tonight.

Are you referring to Thursday? Because I am seeing/wondering same. The convection isn't quite as large/robust at the very end of run but a bit more discrete than earlier models

Am I reading this wrong, but does the HRRR also want to keep things discreet going into the metro?

There were some bands of virga with nearly nothing so no 10mm at 5pm, now its 9 where I was suppose to get heavy storms; I see overcast and now light showers . For nearly a week out 2 agencies forecasting storms all aft and eve, and I don't even hear thunder. Storms nixed for Weds as well. I love these busts.

45F to 85F today… nice crisp morning, followed by deep summer mid-80s. Fantastic day.

Thanks. Its the best. Still unpacking but getting there Stay cool in the heat!

yep and wow very cool to hear. thanks for sharing. glad to hear you are pursuing it at that level. will continue to have a lot of importance ahead.

Wait. You're the capital weather gang Ian right? I want you all at capital weather gang to know you're a large part of how I've learned meteorology. I remember my 5th grade teacher let me read the articles from her laptop and that being my first exposure to real forecasting (outside of books I managed to find). I can recall how I'd wait for the updates before each snowstorm and trying to figure out the storm breakdowns based on the guides about Miller A vs B vs inland track storms CWG published. It was comments on those articles which was how I even found this forum (which I've mentioned before as invaluable and some place I love). Now I'm now majoring in Environmental Science and plan to take every atmospheric science course I can (already took the base one and one about microclimatology); I've even managed to learn the processes behind some of the articles the team has published, but I will always be your teams debt. Thank you both for the important forecasting/media outreach you all do to keep people safe, and for making science interesting.

yeah that could be cool. I sort of half pitched way back when JT started but was post Jason as editor etc. was looking at your website recently.. you guys should give us a data feed to integrate stuff. also started at umgc in Feb as writer/editor.. university system of maryland buddies.