All Activity

Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential.

Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times. Honestly, I seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point.

So if the streak ends, we know who to blame … perfect weather for the tight Fenway experience.

CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.

Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.

He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.

Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.

Pretty crazy that summer is over on 7/19

Combined with the coming mid-week fail, very flaccid end to the season. Sucks Maybe see a rogue threat early Sept. when stronger forcing and dynamics come back with the leftover cape

I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.

Beautiful day for some baseball, although a tad windy

Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule.

Tuesday has tn separated between slight risk (top) and marginal risk (bottom) for day three with 5-15% probability here and 30-45% in the Appalachian mountains and mid Atlantic New England area .

91 with a DP of 77… this is as bad as it gets

Last few days a bulleye has shown of +9C,while +8C is slowly expanding in the east,seemingly this is being caused by the MJO moving into the region along with a DWKW. We get into August the CFS shows another which could be the strongest yet WWB along the IDL,but thats to far out to trust ATM

Another big plume coming down from Canada. Western PA and Ohio back to Code Orange.

I suspect we’ll be in and out of the smoke for at least a few weeks until the Canadian fires diminish.

80 / 69 as drier air filters in with some cumulus , can also see stubborn lingering smoke clear out from earlier

My total rainfall yesterday was 2.18" along with several close lightning strikes in the evening storm. My July total is 6.46".

Yeah, the 100°+ heat has generally been occurring earlier in the summer since 2010 than in previous decades. Only 2 years since then recorded 100° heat between August 1st and 9th. No 100° heat from August 10th onward. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-09 (2011) 06-30 (2021) 0 Mean 07-01 07-21 19 Maximum 07-20 (2022) 08-09 (2022) 43 2025 06-23 (2025) 101 07-30 (2025) 100 36 2024 06-21 (2024) 100 08-01 (2024) 100 40 2023 - - - - - 2022 07-20 (2022) 100 08-09 (2022) 101 19 2021 06-29 (2021) 102 06-30 (2021) 103 0 2020 - - - - - 2019 - - - - - 2018 - - - - - 2017 - - - - - 2016 - - - - - 2015 - - - - - 2014 - - - - - 2013 07-18 (2013) 101 07-19 (2013) 100 0 2012 07-07 (2012) 102 07-18 (2012) 104 10 2011 06-09 (2011) 102 07-23 (2011) 102 43 2010 07-04 (2010) 101 07-07 (2010) 101 2 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-15 (1994) 06-19 (1994) 0 Mean 07-11 07-25 13 Maximum 08-07 (2001) 09-03 (1993) 75 2009 - - - - - 2008 - - - - - 2007 - - - - - 2006 08-01 (2006) 100 08-03 (2006) 101 1 2005 07-27 (2005) 101 08-13 (2005) 102 16 2004 - - - - - 2003 - - - - - 2002 07-04 (2002) 100 08-13 (2002) 100 39 2001 08-07 (2001) 100 08-09 (2001) 105 1 2000 - - - - - 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-19 (1999) 100 13 1998 - - - - - 1997 07-15 (1997) 101 07-17 (1997) 100 1 1996 - - - - - 1995 07-15 (1995) 104 07-15 (1995) 104 0 1994 06-15 (1994) 101 06-19 (1994) 102 3 1993 06-19 (1993) 102 09-03 (1993) 100 75 1992 - - - - - 1991 07-20 (1991) 100 07-21 (1991) 102 0 1990 - - - - - 1989 - - - - - 1988 06-22 (1988) 101 07-17 (1988) 100 24 1987 - - - - - 1986 07-07 (1986) 100 07-07 (1986) 100 0 1985 - - - - - 1984 - - - - - 1983 - - - - - 1982 07-18 (1982) 100 07-18 (1982) 100 0 1981 - - - - - First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-21 (1953) 06-26 (1943) 0 Mean 07-14 07-27 12 Maximum 08-28 (1973) 09-02 (1953) 72 1980 07-20 (1980) 101 07-21 (1980) 101 0 1979 - - - - - 1978 - - - - - 1977 07-19 (1977) 100 07-21 (1977) 102 1 1976 - - - - - 1975 - - - - - 1974 - - - - - 1973 08-28 (1973) 100 08-28 (1973) 100 0 1972 - - - - - 1971 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - 1969 - - - - - 1968 - - - - - 1967 - - - - - 1966 06-27 (1966) 101 07-13 (1966) 100 15 1965 - - - - - 1964 - - - - - 1963 07-01 (1963) 100 07-01 (1963) 100 0 1962 - - - - - 1961 - - - - - 1960 - - - - - 1959 06-29 (1959) 100 06-29 (1959) 100 0 1958 - - - - - 1957 07-22 (1957) 101 07-22 (1957) 101 0 1956 - - - - - 1955 07-05 (1955) 101 08-02 (1955) 100 27 1954 07-14 (1954) 102 07-31 (1954) 103 16 1953 06-21 (1953) 100 09-02 (1953) 105 72 1952 06-26 (1952) 102 06-26 (1952) 102 0 1951 - - - - - 1950 - - - - - 1949 07-03 (1949) 100 08-11 (1949) 102 38 1948 08-26 (1948) 103 08-28 (1948) 102 1 1947 - - - - - 1946 - - - - - 1945 - - - - - 1944 08-04 (1944) 100 08-13 (1944) 100 8 1943 06-25 (1943) 100 06-26 (1943) 102 0 1942 - - - - - 1941 - - - - - 1940 - - - - -

How are yall even in a drought..lol We are having the same luck here like @ Dwagner is going through,i dont think we've gotten a inch the last 30 days while some parts are doing exceptional well.

0.23” of rain yesterday. .

COC for next 10 days. .