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Oh great!

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

If it’s ugly it’s probably right

Lets see if it holds, but for now it looks like the last week or so of the month could be cold, and hopefully not dry. Sucks we have had this glacier otg for 16 days with historic cold and no fucking precip.

Many a good to great winter was built on the 2-6" clippahs

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast.

Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm

I heard it's like basically Florida down there

What a solid winter…this is excellent.

There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.

its missing the 50/50 low that locks the high in...other than that--its a great run

Yeah, same with hour 36.

I did

I like it---the pattern window you are talking too is much better than this weekend with fresh cold air available and not a suppressive pattern. Thats a nasty ridge between alaska and Russia! we are not scoring enough with all teh cold air we have had. 19 straight days of no precip when we hit sunday

Might be a nice little event coming @powderfreak. I don't like the dry slotting on some of the models but should be solid overall.

March 2012 was defined by a lack of Greenland blocking. The NAO was positive on 27 of the 31 days and never strongly negative.

i heard the GFS at 144 has accuracy issues

Thankfully it's the GFS.

The 18z GFS is just ugly

Take a quick peak! The maps will most likely be disappointing, but probably wrong, so still some hopium!

and miss out on Wills snow maps without context?

we got to score this week

I can guarantee you this will be a miserable spring. The cold ocean is enough, especially out here. Long island wont hit 80 until June unless we get a heat blast from the W/NW. Over the top heat wont even do it this year.

Yore nice picture by the way .Coldest ever at IJD since put into service 1997

Looks pretty good for most. Seems like a solid 1-3" down here.