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Never fails that the models show a decent event upcoming, they invariably advertise additional events down the road. Then when the first threat fizzles, all the rest of the threats go with it. Tonight's Gfs is a perfect example, at least thru 240hrs.

Canadian still hanging on to a front end thump

In that case we just hug climo... which is basically the GFS... a nice hit for the elevated interior. As an aside the euro AI is only worth looking at like you'd look at a car on fire on the side of the road.

Ratios are what im interested in. A bulk of the snow will fall with temps of about 28-32, so even if it does end as rain as temps briefly climb above freezing Sunday morning here, I have to imagine a good blanket is laid down.

I stand corrected, but I am glad to see it looks like they will keep doing well. I am going to be skiing a lot in December, so I have a good reason to be excited for the north. Plenty of time for my area to get snow later in the month.

Check it out this winter if the NJO gets back to P4

There is a reasonable chance that I could have less inches of snow this season than the Ravens had turnovers tonight.

Quite possible but its still close to watch it.

Canadian is marginally cooler than the gfs, but also completely less impressive. Good snow is confined to a small area. Zero consensus

Lol . Silly.. they've already had a " great start " weeks ago with the Snow they have already gotten. Nice practice be aggressive post though.

I tuned out pretty early based on the pattern for my yard. A HP sliding off the NE coast in early Dec never works out well for the lowlands. Places NW at elevation might salvage something, otherwise head to the western highlands to see some snow.

Already off to a great start, wake up George.

Probably need to see where the OLR is when it gets into MJO P5,right now we are in P6 with typhoon Koda

ggem is very different than the gfs h5-h7 mid-level vorticity more organized and slower

Hard to argue against the warmer forecasts with that retreating High and resulting se'ly return flow.

Only a thousand mile difference at H5... plus GFS is 12 hrs faster...

My contribution to this thread.

Flakes falling and 29.7/20.9. That means 'Shoe probably has 2 inches at least lol.

Yeah, terrific storm for the north. Onto the next

I hope the GFS has the right idea. Great run for the north, would be a great start for ski resorts.

I think we can make the argument that the GFS model is probably a bit too amplified with this system. That being said, I think if you want to have any shot at snow or an all snow event, you would definitely have to be further inland with this one. I’m skeptical of this storm even starting out with any snow down towards I 95 and closer to the coast because the high pressure is moving out of the way pretty quickly, and there is nothing to prevent the storm from becoming amplified enough where the warm air overpowers most of the region except for those further inland

GFS looks great. Let's lock it

With those ratios it wouldn't take much. Quick couple of inches of fluf to whiten things up

Not buying it.