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  2. WeatherGeek2025
    6-12 is a big hit it's not major but big
  3. neverSnowsLCSC
    Good.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Throw the GEM, ICON, and GFS in the blender....good result.
  5. WNC_Fort
    Very keen to see the GEFS
  6. SACRUS
  7. TellicoWx
    When you view it as 2 separate systems..1) overunning snow looks almost locked..amounts will vary. 2) the second piece, is at the time frame where models have some divergence in evolution (old saying " we're at x hr where models lose it, to bring it back as we get closer". Where ever those 2 overlap is going to be in for a potentially historic ride.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking the same. The ZR was gone, but snow was missing. Somebody had to have been pasted on that run!
  9. mob1
    Both can be (and actually is) true. The evolution is definitely a bit south and phasing occurs a hair later, but verbatim it's still a big hit.
  10. stormtracker
    I'm not letting it get me down, but I hate when it does this
  11. John1122
    That GFS run would break snowfall records in every southern state except Tennessee.
  12. Jersey_Snowhole
    I wouldn’t say “big hit”
  13. SnowGoose69
    Better than the GFS but this is not the type of storm the CMC tends to make big scores on. I like the CMC for major phasing events between the NRN/SRN streams or classic Miller As that result in deep surface lows. It can tend to be less reliable in this type of storm.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    As someone who is pessimistic on this weekend threat, I'm not worried about the GFS.
  15. Ravens94
    This has no end in sight for a south trend. Ai GFS has been non stop moving south.
  16. Wurbus
    2-3" of QPF for all of East TN on that CMC run
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow.
  18. CoastalWx
    Shit ton of energy, digging on the backside of that trough too
  19. T. August
    Interested to see the gefs. Hopefully the op doesn’t have too much support. There were quite a few members yesterday that showed exactly what the op just did.
  20. burgertime
    ICON 12z
  21. whiteout
    100% this right here. All in the timing/phase, which also allows the flow overtop the MA to relax some with the delay to help it North. .
  22. SnowenOutThere
    I was hoping with our 6z consensus we were out of the woods with the first phase handling out west. Agree that we still have to get through at least 0z tonight now... Additionally, the GFS coming to the normal solution before shifting back is worrying to me. Probably means we meet somewhere in the middle which would still be okay for us.
  23. WeatherGeek2025
    cmc is a big hit
  24. anotherman
    GFS and GFSAI
  25. GreyHat
    The potential problem I see here. Is the HPs are a lot weaker 1032 vice 1040. The HP is exiting NE over Maine, which is allowing this thing to come NE more and potential ice for Dover. If the modeling continues to move this system NNE there might be others in the ice for a time period. At least that is my none educated observation.
  26. Interstate
    It is 16 degrees at 2PM in Baltimore, and Ocean City is in the mid 40s
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