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1.34" planted grass seed on a hill. Never fails

For comparison, 6z and 12z for humberto Not going lie, there is deft looks like less of a curve towards Bermuda. If anything further west before it turns.

I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025 TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42 A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76 A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. 3. REMARKS: A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z. B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL

Both the 12z Euro and GFS op show some decent jet dynamics inland of the landfall for 94L across the Carolinas. Would support a legit flooding threat down there.

At the very least snowman has some substance behind his messages. qg_omega is just a troll.

Gefs, 6z versus 12z

2.04 on the day. over 3” since yesterday

0.71" here so far, Intensity varies.

First time all season this thread has been hot lol

We should score 1"-1.25", But not getting to much more then that, Certainly not 2" i think, That reserved for the foothills.

Not sure if it’d happen today as the 2pm TWO didn’t mention it, but maybe at 11pm and almost certainly tomorrow given it’s proximity to the islands.

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

Agreed. A Widespread 4" - 9" of rain across North Carolina would be significant.

Some blue skies peeking through the clouds here

Starting to see some sun. Hopefully a sign of some nice storms later. Now that my outdoor cannabis plants are done and I no longer care if it rains I'll loose my hot hand lol

Based on the 12Z ops and individual GEFS/GEPS members, the best bet for the SE US to not get hit thanks to Fujiwhara is for 94L to not be moving too fast and thus never get N of Humberto’s latitude. Helping also would be for it to be significantly weaker than Humberto.

12z euro would be a yikes rainfall total wise from NC into C VA

I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data

Dreary day.

Higher-end QPF event at minimum on most of those gfs solutions.

This could really be a prolific rainmaker if it gets trapped under the ridge.

Oh, and the consensus tracks shifts way west at 12z. Of which will likely play a big part in the invest future plan of attack For humberto

Only in New England.

I think regardless of track there’s going to be a flood risk maybe up to the Mid-Atlantic given the upper level setup. Hopefully not to this extent though.

War between the models. GFS, 50 mi. north at 12z in western Carolina's but still less than 1.0" for Augusta. ECMWF a little north at 12z. Augusta QP increased about 1.0". Now 3.84"