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Social media magnifies everything now. There’s probably an uptick with more people hiking and camping out there and starting more fires. Summer 02 had a real smoke day with low ceilings and vis down to 1-2sm.

This is really good stuff, thanks for posting. I agree, and I think the current orange is a candidate, GFS depictions notwithstanding. Notice how the Euro takes the follow up wave and makes that a Caribbean cruiser at 00z. The steering pattern is there. You may actually want the current lemon to get further north to weaken the ridge but not sure that’ll happen.

Yup. Don’t recall it (the days of smoke) being a thing in New England before the past few years. I’m sure it happened, but I don’t have any memory of it.

When the bullet hits the bone

I agree the Pacific is more important than the NAO, which is why the vast majority of the past decade has sucked. But all else equal, I will take a somewhat negative NAO...there are degrees of "suck". I think a -NAO would have helped last February...that doesn't mean I think its more important than the Pacific.

Sure, the WPO was still strongly positive in the seasonal mean, but it was better in many spots do the PNA mismatch and -EPO. The NAO and poorly placed PNA ridge foiled February. I am not debating that the HC is edging nothward, but there is more to it than that...the pattern has also sucked.

-NAO's not correlating with an East coast trough in the cold season is not really a global warming point, besides the +temps that are everywhere. Starting in 2013, but really going back to 2007, -NAO's have been happening much more frequently with +epo/-pna, and +NAO's with -epo/+pna. Something is connecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. The Pacific is a stronger pattern and has led more. Now the last 2 Winters -NAO's have been happening with a CONUS trough. The real anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but we seem to be getting a little bit out of it the last 2 cold seasons.

did the carpenter ants help clean up the big mess??

Stronger here on the south shore over 80 mph with major tree damage in the Rockaways

that was the most wild and windiest tropical system here since Sandy Most of Sandy occurred at night while Isaias was during the day. Major tree damage in the Rockaways with winds over 80 mph.

Usually 60N/20N is a big marker.. storms that pass NE of it steer out to sea >90% of the time. If they go SE of it, it's closer to 50/50. Obviously early in the year the steering currents are more east to west.

seems like Canada has been burning for last 2yrs.

1980 - A record forty-two consecutive days of 100 degree heat finally came to an end at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. July 1980 proved to be the hottest month of record with a mean temperature of 92 degrees. There was just one day of rain in July, and there was no measurable rain in August. There were 18 more days of 100 degree heat in August, and four in September. Hot weather that summer contributed to the deaths of 1200 people nationally, and losses from the heat across the country were estimated at twenty billion dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) epic endless heat in 1980 1995: Thunderstorms over northwest Iowa storms grew quickly, producing golf ball to baseball size hail over Palo Alto County near Ayrshire and Webb. As the storms moved south, a copious amount of hail was dropped. Just north of Rush Lake in Palo Alto County, pea-sized hail covered the ground to a depth of 12 inches. The storms then moved into northern Pocahontas County where they dropped softball size hail, which has a diameter of 4.50 inches, just north of Laurens. Golf ball size hail also continued to fall over Pocahontas County near the communities of Pocahontas and Havelock. The storms weakened a bit as they moved into Sac and Calhoun Counties. Crop damage totaled about $335,000 from these storms. Record heat prevailed across parts of the East. Record highs included: Philadelphia, PA: 98°, LaGuardia Airport (NYC), NY: 96°, Wilmington, DE: 96° and Bridgeport, CT: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995 hot and dry August was just beginning here Highs: EWR: 100 (1993) NYC: 100 (1944) LGA: 99 (1944) JFK: 93 (2006) epic endless heat in 1993 and 1944 too

Help I’m slipping into the Twilight Zone - Golden Earring

Cant they do air drops like we do in California with fire retardant? Or maybe they just don't have the funds to do what we do to stop forest fires? At some point this will have to be dealt with permanently, even if that means chopping down the trees. Canada has a large logging industry, they could take care of this. We can't just sit back and do nothing, this is a permanent problem and won't go away next year or in 5 years or in a decade. And there is a huge health risk with this air pollutant, Chicago is the 7th most polluted city on the planet right now because of it.

Excellent, I am glad it finished at 80.0 as opposed to the tainted July average which was infected with what happened on the evening of the 31st (I don't agree with the new *day* beginning at midnight.)

Brooklyn Blues? Bronx Blues? NYPD Blues?

This smoke sucks. Bring back dews and Bahamas blues.

Great day to stick it to Eversource with solar production...

The concern I have that there may actually be something threatening somewhere in the Conus (Gulf or Atlantic coasts) (hopefully not!) as we approach midmonth is increased because the model consensus is suggesting there may be an extended period of the MJO being in or near phase 2 around then. Why would a long period in phase 2 be a concern? US MH hits during phase 2 (**either inside or outside the circle**) during July-Sep since 1975: -Ida (2021) -Harvey (2017) -Irma (2017) -Ivan (2004) -Bret (1999) -Emily (1993) -Hugo (1989) -Frederic (1979) -Eloise (1975) That’s 9 of 23 (39%) of Jul-Sep Conus MH hits during 1975-2024 having occurred just during phase 2, alone! The 39% is more than double the ~17% of days in phase 2, meaning a significant/non-random signal for increased danger. Latest MJO forecasts: GEFS suggests long period in phase 2 (its mainly inside circle phase 2, which unfortunately is almost equally as high risk as outside): EPS is similar Maybe that’s why avg Jul-Sep precip is heaviest during phase 2 (this is for both inside and outside circle):

sun intensity's recovering some this last hour.. I've noticed that in the past about smoke; it seems to disperse some mass ( but not all ) as the daylight hours progresses.

Is there any research on the quantifiable UHI at a station like PHL? I ask because in reality - the airport's footprint hasn't really expanded in over 30 years (much to the dismay of locals). PHL isn't DFW or PHX. PHL sits directly adjacent to the John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge and the Delaware River. To the northeast, it's mostly vacant land. And the closest "urbanized" areas, Essington and Eastwick have both seen population declines in the past 30 years. As a matter of fact, Eastwick is a shell of its former self, most of the neighborhood abandoned and reclaimed by nature due to white flight and serious flooding issues. There are certainly macro effects of UHI, one would assume, in which PHL is somewhat well-located to pick up, though not even that ideal given that directly south of PHL the landscape becomes quickly rural and non-urbanized. I guess I am just wondering how much UHI effect at PHL has actually contributed to the temperature increases in the past 30-40 years?

Yeah. Didn't realize how bad it's up North for you guys until I checked the goes.

Yeah, guidance as well as local NWS Forecasts have constantly been too high . Not just to the tune of a couple degrees but, 5-7.

I put down $250 of seed in spring and simply cut when needed. Haven’t cut in a month. Do I wish it was nicer? Yes. Do I want to invest the time and money? No.