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The BIG question in my mind was this, "What happens after the Dec29-30th cold front?" I think a probable, and even likely answer, is now this. Dec 29-Jan10 is a transition timeframe as the eastern ridge retrogrades into the West. We get a TBD window where the EPO ridge just brings it. It would be hard to find a deterministic or ensemble run which doesn't end up here. The 12z EPS has that EPO ridge in place around 216, and then begins pushing a trough towards the east at that time. By 324 we get this -> The original window was Jan 8-10, and they may yet still verify. I would say the window is now Jan 12th, give or take a few days. Sometimes a big pattern like this is preceded by a big storm. Modeling across various products at 12z has a progression which makes sense given the analogs for this winter, recent Nina climatology, the QBO state, and...it is January - climatology fits. Good trends. Now, it is time to reel this look in. Get the pattern right, and then we can track.

Thats pretty typical for modeling sites like pivotal weather.

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I am heading there tomorrow morning for new years. [emoji1] .

I really don’t like events like this. At least the most recent event prompted homeowners to clear and salt while these dinkleshit 1-2 inchers don’t get removed, everything stays icy until it rains or warms up otherwise, and makes for unpleasant walking conditions. Give me big storms followed by warmups and rain and I’m a lot happier these days.

On my watch list! In weather related news - it's windy, cold and cloudy outside, but at least the days are getting longer.

Had a wicked gust about 45 minutes ago.. tree down on wires a street over.. we Damage

I hope that we do not see any sub zero stuff, my landscaping is still in recovery mode from the last two seasons.

I can’t wait until the inevitable 180 bringing us back to the goods. These last 2 gfs runs will age just as well as the runs that had us torching this week.

I like how 60’s and 70’s for high temperatures are red. So I guess this summer the 80’s 90’s will be black.

Landed in Logan at 5:45am this morning… one of the most turbulent landings I’ve ever experienced. Looks like KBOS 59 mph gust. Multiple people throwing up before even we got to gate. Took me hours to settle my nausea. Missed the wounded duck storm… congrats to the region especially Connecticut and south shore areas.

Painful reads…some of y'all need to watch Pluribus on Apple TV.

I am pretty intrigued in the period of Jan 10-15. But we have a light snow event tomorrow, probably another one in a week, then there could be some room for a bigger storm moving towards mid-month.

Rumor is EPS look okay - but still anything before Jan. 10 is probably a slight miracle. Counting on the SWS tonight to deliver.

The 12z EPS gets there at the same time....all of the frames aren't posted yet. Pretty good continuity. And if we are too assume that ensembles are struggling to see cold this winter....they are cold now. What if the warm bias is still in play? The 12z EPS is gonna look about as good as it has all winter at Jan 10+.

all we do is punt

The 12z AIGEFS at 360. It has the EPO ridge in place by 240, and then takes a couple of days to kick everything eastward - common theme for the 12z suite. Honestly, this look might be too cold. But see the NAO isn't really gone?

The 9th is 10 days away, not too late for it to reverse. It’s only 2 bad runs too far enough out to still get reversed.

whats that have to do with the european?

Models struggling due to less data from noaa cuts? [emoji2369] .

seems like whatever webber forecasts...the opposite happens

The Euro AIFS 12z deterministic run. I just go w/ a 5 day window to see the trend...Pretty good signal, right? That is a crazy cold run by the way.

So ... curious, why does his posting content matter to you. You're saying on one hand that everyone's entitled to their opinion, then saying he "keeps bashing" - that doesn't sound like we are allowing people their opinion. It should not and in fact, logically does not matter what the opinion content is when it comes to rendering perspectives about a 3rd party subject; that is also completely virtual, btw.

Even weirder, there’s more optimism in the TN valley forum.