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It’s mostly rain for us, but it’s baby steps.. let’s see if we can get things to trend, colder. Jan 6-11 look mild at least around here. After jan 11-12 we should turn a bit colder and hopefully have a +PNA to work with

Wow

Don't you use/threaten me with that word! LOL Or you can watch hockey, ice, white, snow in the corners/boards .

Curious sometimes to think of what an obs station 150 miles SE of NYC would get every year for snow. Looks like a nice ocean effect band out there right now.

Syracuse is off to its third fastest start in terms of seasonal snowfall.

From the NE forum:

How’s February looking?

Then @dailylurker and @katabatic won't have to travel so far!

That sounds like a lot of snow to ice ending as rain south of pike

Addendum: December 2025 was the 5th coldest out of the past 31 Decembers here. It didn't even seem that cold, but certainly we didn't have the extreme warm outlier days that seem to have become prevalent in December. 12/25 average was 33.1, December mean is 37.2. Here are the 5 coldest: December 2000 - 29.6° December 1995 - 30.7° December 2010 - 32.2° December 2002 - 32.9° December 2025 - 33.1°

Here are some interesting albeit depressing observations from a well known and respected longtime recorder of the weather in Colorado’s mountains a little north of Crested Butte. https://www.gothicwx.org. The recent warmth in particular has been truly extraordinary - absolutely obliterating past records left and right - though the lack of snow and first ever officially observed December rain in his spot is also striking. Only adding to the frustration is the persistent negative PNA pattern we’ve had, which is usually favorable for the Rockies. But that monster ridge over the southern Plains that seemingly won’t budge has generally been tearing the systems apart before reaching CO while places like CA have had considerable improvements since mid-December, which is great for them. But really sucks for us to be failing to capitalize on a PNA status that eventually will get worse for all of the West. Just seemingly cannot win this season so far here in CO. Last winter was also one of the least snowy seasons in 50+ winters of Gothicwx (see above) record keeping. So we’re arguably on track to have 2 of the least 5 snowy winters in the western central CO mountains over the past 50+ years within merely two seasons, though it is still somewhat early and, yes, things can change this season. Even so, the degree of recent change in our weather is pretty shocking, even knowing what has been predicted with climate change. I acknowledge we have also recently had a good snow season locally (2022-23, which was a horrid year for the East), but the extremes on the warm/less snow side are far more dramatic. Just thought I’d throw in a little more perspective from a part of the West that once had reliably very snowy winters, with just a few exceptions.

More than that.

Great to see AI learning as designed. Theoretically it should only get better.

Never concerned - still going up here.

lol there is only like 3-4

Every storm redeveloped south of CNE.. Waem pike south . Net gainer CNE north

The AI models are self-educating, so they should get even better with time even without tweaks to the programing. It gets interesting with models like GraphCast, which are apparently a hybrid of AI and fluid dynamics. I still like the physics models inside of four days, but beyond that time frame it seems that AI has taken the clear lead.

The polar vortex and associated cold 500mb temperatures really sloshed around from December 1-15, really dumping the cold and snow on us. Then we had some varied weather patterns, including a ridge on Christmas Day that split the cold anomalies east, west, and north. High values of Greenland blocking (west negative NAO blocking) came along with the polar vortex motions in the first half of the month. https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_2025_500mb_loop.html

Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

Yup, I sent him the picture of the wolf with the lady’s head in his mouth…that did it.

As I highly suspected and noted weeks ago....with cold entrenched over the Great Lakes & northeast, we would undoubtedly hear more about warm anomalies elsewhere.

On the heels of yesterday's "record breaking" New Years Day snowfall, here are some more stats from the current winter season in Smithtown: The period of record for snowfall is 10/1/1995 through the present. The old daily January 1st record of 0.1" was the lowest daily record of any date between November 30 and March 25. Yesterday's 0.3" of snowfall shattered (tripled ) the old record set on New Years Day 2010. Here are all New Years Day snowfalls in Smithtown since 1996: 1997 - Trace 2006 - Trace 2010 - 0.1" 2014 - Trace 2020 - Trace 2021 - Trace 2026 - 0.3" Snowfall this season through 1/2 is 13.4". The December mean temperature was 33.1° and monthly snowfall was 13.0". Thus far we have had 11 days with at least a trace of snow, 7 days with measurable snowfall, and 3 days with at least 1 inch. Total precipitation for December was 4.33". Total precipitation for 2025 was 39.46" (8.34" below the 13-year average) Finally, the only other day in January with a daily snowfall record below 1" is January 13 (0.5" in 2000). We might have a shot at breaking that this year.

We need to film an Outdoor Boys winter snow survival video

Yes Syracuse and Oswego throwing us their table scraps. Some towns in between both will end up with over 6 feet from this. Snowfalls rates there tonight are 3-5 inches per hour. One of these days I have to drive up before a big one.