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yeah and the rug pull is - you get an inch of ice! Have fun!

Could this be a case where you flip between snow and sleet depending on how heavy precipitation is? Or once you go to sleet that’s it?

^That's a long ass duration storm...

there was nothing to sniff out. models aren't predictions. they are simulations of what is most likely to happen with a hypothetical set of mathematical inputs. as the imputs get close to the actual atmospheric conditions, the simulations change and begin to reflect what will actually happen. tl;dr: Kuchera maps suck. stop using them.

Wiki article says Falls Church got 13". I totally believe you though... classic DCA crummy elevation screw job.

I used the EPS to create this map using the 25% and 75% snowfall output

Not sure I follow the logic but pulling for u

I think we should change the name of this thread to "Miracle on Ice"!! (For those old enough to remember the 1980 Winter Olympics when the USA hockey team upset the Soviets and won the gold medal, you'll get the reference!)

I don't know...I'm not sure it's been a huge deal recently, but then again we haven't had many decent storms recently to prove it one way or the other. That said...f we weren't getting Arctic cold 24 hours in advance via a massive high pressure and a block then this wouldn't even be a discussion. It would just be a cutter, which isn't abnormal.

It's schadenfreude for all the times the Carolinas scored and we've gotten table scraps or nothing at all over the past decade. Remember December 2018?

I knew they weren’t getting 3 feet of snow. That like never happens. Usually ends up over us or north

not to go off topic but this is going to be a fun webcam to watch in a few minutes

the melting of last weekend's snow is well underway in Philly, but if we can make it through this afternoon we should lock in 2+ weeks of snow cover

That is only through 7pm Sunday

I was at UMCP at the time and don't even remember that one, which is weird. Just looked at an accumulation map for that one and it does look like CP got shafted, which wasn’t unusual. Temps always seemed to run warm there to me. I may vaguely remember this one now. I think it was a really heavy, wet snow that we probably got about eight inches out of but probably got less on paved surfaces and melted very quickly. Just surprised Baltimore got hit so hard and I don’t remember being disappointed I missed out. I guess I had other things on my mind at the time.

Tomer Burg posted elsewhere that it apparently is a know euro problem with ZR vs sleet. I think very little ZR for the metro areas. Maybe FZDZ at the very end.

watches up from ALY, 12-16"

Usually is the last 48hrs it will shift nw if it’s going to.

Never dance on the grave of a snow lover. It invites back luck for you. Really impressive temp drop over the next 24 hours. It's amazing to realize that today might be the warmest day for the rest of the month.

I get that, but I still think you're being overly pessimistic. We usually don't have this kind of setup leading into a storm. We'll make at least 7, mark my words!

My Holly is storm total map, Upton is until 7 pm Sunday...apples and oranges

Again that is through 7pm Sunday lol. More to come after that.

This will be a true test of forecasting skills versus just accepting what models spit out. There is definitely support for this projected outcome, just outside what we view as the consensus of the better models.

Sub 0F temps early next week cannot be discounted at this point. I do not expect to break the 2021 records but could approach some of them.

40 is a bit exaggerated, no? All of the official temps are like 33-34 right now.