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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
And a couple more too but Jan 15 takes the prize. -
Not necessarily a bad thing, could occlude less fast
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
stormtracker replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
It’s a pretty decent hit. Not sure how much the heavies get i -
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
Scraff replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Incoming NAMing!? -
CC was dirty over them so I’m assuming some mix at least.
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70 days to go!!!
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
SomeguyfromTakomaPark replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Bah, yeah it doesn't sharpen up quite like 6z. But even though the trough looks more progressive it still looks good at the surface. Hour 57 looks nice. -
12z NAM very similar to GFS at 500mb...this run may explode shortly.
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
stormtracker replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man -
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Isn’t that still the case though? -
“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
Kitz Craver replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Pretty much. Riding the roller coaster baby!!! I need help. -
This looks good...
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
ORH_wxman replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
The old SREFS had a bunch of ETA members in there so the synoptics were decent (even the old RSM members weren't bad synoptically either)....but now it's all convective models. -
Nam might be good, great trend from 6z
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
mitchnick replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Could the valleys see a little snow Sunday night and Monday, lots of models showing 1- 2 inches around Asheville NC
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread
EstorilM replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Based on their latest disco, I think they'll wait till the very last second for this one. Way too many stars need to align for this thing to be "dangerous" IMO. Sterling / LWX quote snippet sums up this whole mess perfectly: -
We agree about the NAM. I mentioned it just for purposes of reference. I give it very little weight at this timeframe and I'm looking forward to its retirement. I started somewhat conservatively, as there is enormous spread among the guidance and among the NBM's 25th/75th percentiles and 10th/90th percentiles. Hopefully, the spread will be smaller after the 12z and 18z cycles. I'll revisit the numbers late in the day. Finally, as you note, 4"-8" might also be a better initial call.
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Backside energy is sharpening the trough quickly at 54, looks decent so far.
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
PrinceFrederickWx replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Some of you already know this, but we're moving to Kearneysville, WV in April (unless something falls through at the last minute- hopefully not!). The GFS would make for a nice grand finale for my nearly 13 years in Southern Maryland. We'll still be visiting Breezy Point every October and St. Michaels every December, so both sides of the shore will still be seeing us. I'll still be checking on this thread too occasionally. -
So a close second, Until 18z. lol
