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Lol it just sucks.. even here we're only at 50 percent cover or so.

Who doesn't love it when the NAO enters the middle of the country and disrupts the fried eggs coming out of the gulf?

Also go back to smooth jazz and rough graphics local on the 8s. Trends today 06/12Z point to mainly Plateau and Mountains Wednesday night. Weekend could feature more flurries are even snow showers Valley floor in Eastern Tennessee. Maybe even the Nashville area? Clearly the beefy GFS runs a couple days ago caved to the Euro type solutions. Still gives a chance of flurries in the air over the weekend. A good short-wave within cyclonic flow aloft could put down a dusting in the Valley. Otherwise more Plateau and Mountains. Mid-Atlantic and Southern Appalachian ski areas look for another good MLK Weekend.

Was going to start posting these at the New Year, but slipped my mind. This date in weather history in MN January 1 2003: On this date there is an inch or less of snow on the ground from Duluth to the Iowa border. In the Twin Cities there isn't even a dirty snowbank to be found. 1997: Freezing rain causes numerous accidents along the North Shore. In Lake County, vehicles could not get up hills and were blocking roads. Highway 61 was closed for several hours from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. 1864: Extremely cold air moves into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a high of 25 degrees below zero. January 2 1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February. January 3 1981: Arctic air visits Minnesota. Embarrass, Wannaska, and Tower all hit 38 below zero. 1977: 14.2 inches of snow falls in Mankato. January 4 1981: Air cold enough to freeze a mercury thermometer pours into Minnesota. Tower hits 45 below zero. 1971: A snowstorm moves through the Upper Midwest. Winona gets over 14 inches. January 5 2012: Record warmth is felt across the state. Many locations in western Minnesota soared over 50 degrees, with temperatures reaching the 60s at Marshall, Canby, and Madison. This was the first record of any 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota during the first week of January. January 6 1942: The temperature rises from 32 below zero to 41 above in 24 hours in Pipestone. January 7 2003: Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s, including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning. 1873: A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than 70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day storm. January 8 1902: A January Thaw occurs across Minnesota. The Twin Cities experience a high of 46 degrees. January 9 1982: Both January 9th and 10th would have some of the coldest windchills ever seen in Minnesota. Temperatures of -30 and winds of 40 mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to windchills of -71 with the new windchill formula, and -100 with the old formula. 1934: A sleet and ice storm hits southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit locations were Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: 'Very peculiar information being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble.' January 10 1990: A January 'heat wave' forms. MSP Airport warms to 49 degrees. 1975: The 'Blizzard of the Century' begins. Also called the 'Super Bowl Blizzard,' it was one of the worst blizzards ever. The pressure hit a low of 28.62. This was the record until 1998. January 11 1975: A blizzard continues with hurricane force winds in southwestern Minnesota. 1899: An odd flash of lightning lights the clouds up around 9 pm at Maple Plain. January 12 2000: Snow falls in a narrow band over the Twin Cities. Maplewood receives 5.5 inches, while Chanhassen gets 12. 1888: The infamous 'Blizzard of '88' occurs. It hit during a mild day when many children were heading home from school. They made up the majority of the 200 people that died. At the end of the storm the thermometer at St. Paul read -37.

Euro run will be interesting. Does it favor one look over the other or will it have its own island real estate as well?

Both are good for different reasons but the key being they’re hilariously different at h5 with how they handle the energy (gfs and Ukie)

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February. Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February. Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible. Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol.

I'm gonna go ahead and take a different approach here, Ray. I mean I'm not trying to abase what your saying ... I'm just going go with persistence. It's hard to knock it. At some point, the onus is on reality to start proving the models wrong. Which ... they may not precisely be right in how it gets done, but the principle/law of least action ( Law of least action is real in physical philosophy btw - ) has been winning too long.

There has been a trend dating back several days to delay the decay of that western ridge...not sure who could have foreseen that months ago (raises hand). Decent shot it's got a bit more to go there.

UKMET with two consecutive runs showing hit. Output looks good. We hug!

Equivalent of a blown save in baseball. Also Kansas blowing a comfortable lead at West Virginia. Well at least the train wreck of the Chiefs season is over!

I call BS on the GFS bifurcating the energy parcels like that on approach...pretty sure we get something out of the follow up deal. 00z EURO was just a bit too far N with the H5 low...easily correctable, especially with more PNA trends. Hold off on taking a total L.

Apparently, a few tornadoes happened with that on Friday. Twas an interesting system to start off January.

The weekend is definitely looking more interesting. That was still a potent shrtwave on the UK. Euro should be interesting

I think it's more likely he'll present the underlying information that he uses in his analysis. He might also reread some of the citations at the end of the link he posted and sharpen up his own analysis. And then everybody benefits.

kicking the can. We went from 1/4-6 all the way out to the 18th now. Big Jan has turned to big meh

A step backwards with a weaker wave though. It looks nice at the surface anyway

From folklore to science: The 'January Thaw' is real, as the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states are about to find out | Cornell Chronicle

ho wow man... imagine the deliciousness in schadenfreude if this ukmet run scores. and before you ask, no - it's not coming up here given everything priceless -

06z EURO did appear to be moving in the direction of the CMC...at least relative to it's 00z snooze-fest.

UK with another solid run. Why is it doing this to us? Lol

I'm not sure how long it lasts, but it is more typically towards the end of the month. I've always felt it is one of those things that you can subjectively fit into any January... there's always going to be a few days warmer than all of the others.

Want to know what's messed up? I'd prefer nothing over that verifying.

looks pretty sweet

Nice sunny day, and not bitter. That's always a plus. Colder months are so cloudy. Sunny days lift the spirit.