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  2. Remember that is NBM is behind a run.. should see total jump up next run .
  3. The 9z SREF is really juiced up. The mean is over 0.25" liquid at NYC (3z was a little less). I count 11 hits and 13 misses among the members. A few of the hits are major. This is the weeniest of weenie "models." But I still prefer seeing it increase QPF rather than decrease it run to run.
  4. The models have been showing us getting a decent amount of snow in CLT consistently this week, which means we’re likely gonna find a way to screw it up when the actual event gets started based on past experience lol. I’ll be happy if we do get some of the totals they’re calling for though.
  5. There is nothing like a blizzard on the seacoast. Waves crashing, near hurricane force winds and heavy blinding snow. It a must see event for any weenie.
  6. I would love it but has decent amount of snow into DC
  7. I fully expect the euro gfs cmc to kill this within the next 2 hours and then we can move on to the 6-14 threats
  8. GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much.
  9. At 36h the GFS is a tick west at 500mb. If the CAMs are right about this second Bermuda low it won't matter. But worth noting
  10. normally i'd agree with you but this winter is built different. the atmosphere remembered how to be cold. as PSU always says, just gotta time the cold with a wave right... (not shown: matching CPC chart which shows below normal precip )
  11. FOK down to -5 this morning. Man cold
  12. F it, I'll hang on to track a slight chance of a tiny pack refresher. I feel emotionally strong enough at this time.
  13. I gave it until 0z friday, Its rapidly approaching.
  14. I was there yesterday, but, what's another 12z run to confirm things.
  15. Can someone post a zoom in of East TN for the NBM? Looking good on the wider map
  16. SC DNR has a really good write-up for a close analog to this type of setup that occurred on 1.2-1.3.2002 PDF file is too big to post, but worth the read if you do a quick Google search....it shows the entire upper air synoptic progression/summary in good detail throughout the storm
  17. Every pulling for trends that contradict one another for their backyard.. That's the nature of snow in the south
  18. I remember looking at the forecast the morning of and thinking gosh it sure is snowing a lot, it might be more than a couple inches lol.
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