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Pouring the rain here in Cherokee.

How many cattle will be thrown into the air in Vermont?

yes

HRRR gone wild up north.

Heavy downpour! Short range models stunk this am. Approaching .20 with more to come.

Moderate rain this morning in the Valley.

Current temp of 71 is the low, to go along with .03" of rainfall. Hopefully we can squeeze a little more out of the day, although there doesn't seem to be much support for it.

Short lived but yeah. Some good bursts of convection still going down there. Yeah, that line looks solid right now. The line looks pretty damn robust on the 12z HRRR in NNE.

If that. That’s all we get these days. My last two “rain” events have been 0.03 and 0.02.

Already closing in on 0.70” this morning. This looks interesting this afternoon.

That 34" dump came at Oak Ridge Reservoir, about 10 miles west from where I grew up. In January that site's pack reached 41", the only time I've seen for NJ pack >36" except for Feb 1961 when Oak Ridge had 50" and 15 miles farther NW, Canistear Reservoir topped out at 52". We probably had 45" after the 3-4 blizzard that year. A friend and I decided to wade thru the pack and it was navel-deep on me (was 5'7 or 8" at the time) and my boots ;likely didn't get within 6" of the ground. The 35" record was set at the state's least snowy site, Cape May, in the Feb 1899 cold blast and storm. Even Tallahassee had 2". Initial reporting from Mt. Arlington (western Morris County) had 35.5" from the 2021 Jan-Feb dump, but QC follow-up lowered that to under 30".

Hopefully more nice, safe rains later like this morning

In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC. In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE. SE example for DJF Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8 Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F. Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

Is that from that faux tropical storm?

Skies are brightening up here. FWIW, there's already a tor warning in Western NY.

Downpours and thunder is this morning’s theme. Minimal drought issues here.

Let's hope so. I have no measurable rain at my house this month.

We're still in a slight risk

The ridges have become more expansive than the troughs leading to the record drought across the CONUS.

You're totally correct. I ran my mouth and cursed the lowlands. This winter will be a parade of storms that crush north of 70 while I get a wintery mix and 33 lol.

Looks like elevated convection at best. Yup. We at least need the rain. Would be surprised if we actually get into the mid 90s like previously forecast.

downhill decline has been rapid this year, the portions of my lawn that aren't reached by the irrigation system have stopped growing completely

That hasn't been in the cards for a few days. Where have you been?

I blame you... you were all gung ho when you were getting storms and the north was missing out. Believe me though... I rather have snow than rain.

Latest drought monitor update has severe drought for I-95 and SE. Would be really nice if this Mon possible rain event happens. And this strong/super Nino needs to produce with the storms over the next 6-8 months.