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Very light snow now but looks like a burst should be here within the hour per radar.

Yes! Its not far off

relax. plenty of time.

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday.

Beast mode there! What a storm

13.1” on the board melted down to 1.80” of liquid. Season total sits at 38.3”.

hmmm, I could have sworn that the Dec 04 storm blasted them with more than that. I know there were some locations in se IN and along the OH/IN border that got like 30"

Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out Not out of the game whatsoever but food for thought

starting to think this one could be a whiff

This is a beginner weenie mistake for Gemini (one that I have made many many times)...If there is moisture, the cold press almost by definition will not be as strong.

It does seem like eastern areas might be preferred at this range. yes I know everything can change at this lead.

agreed with this, but fwiw, it is JUST the euro and aifs doing this. every other model made significant strides to a more amped solution

We got the CMC/E, ICON, and GFS/GEFS to improve run-over-run, no need to be perfect D5 as we very clearly found out this past week. Lots of ways to make this work even on a smaller scale than a HECS/BECS event like the 6z euro

Miller A storms are like trying to hit a bullseye on a dart board.

Ai terminated the good vibes

Locked in on *something* happening nearby. But I agree, it's a bit further east than we would want at this point.

Honestly, 1/2 inch of sleet is enough to get stuck and shut the roads down, it really doesn't take much, sleet just turns the roads into an ice skating rink as soon as those sleet pellets settle and freeze together. 4 inches of sleet is a PROLIFIC amount that you don't see very often at all. This is a great NWS article out of DFW on the 2013 Cobblestone Ice event that I personally lived through. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013 A large chunk of DFW received 3-5 inches of sleet, and that's the last time I can remember since this storm of anyone getting that much around here.

I didn’t even get that good a ratio, the core from the board which had 13.1” on it melted down to 1.80”. It started out at much better ratios as the snow was fluffy but it changed during the storm. It also shows it was compacting under its own weight on the board for 24 hours. Again, shoveling felt much more like 18”, which also makes more sense now.

Yeah, that's my time line I'm looking for changes.

I'm late with the obs...fell asleep early in the easy chair last night and didn't make it back to the laptop. We had sideways rain with some lightning along several rounds of booming thunder in the 8-10pm timeframe last night when that final line came through...temps were right around 40 at the time. As anticipated, we had only rain right here on the coast throughout the entire storm, even though we were under a WWA the whole time. Rain off/on through the night and last of it moved off the coast around 9am today...currently 42, and the sun finally appeared just within the last 30 min. Concur with many of the already shared reactions...this was quite an interesting storm to track and watch. Enjoyed reading the obs and esp seeing the posted pics...thx, all.

Still really close aloft.

OP EURO was east as well

Lots of time until Saturday