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And a couple more too but Jan 15 takes the prize.

Not necessarily a bad thing, could occlude less fast

It’s a pretty decent hit. Not sure how much the heavies get i

Incoming NAMing!?

CC was dirty over them so I’m assuming some mix at least.

70 days to go!!!

Bah, yeah it doesn't sharpen up quite like 6z. But even though the trough looks more progressive it still looks good at the surface. Hour 57 looks nice.

12z NAM very similar to GFS at 500mb...this run may explode shortly.

NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man

Isn’t that still the case though?

Pretty much. Riding the roller coaster baby!!! I need help.

This looks good...

The old SREFS had a bunch of ETA members in there so the synoptics were decent (even the old RSM members weren't bad synoptically either)....but now it's all convective models.

Nam might be good, great trend from 6z

Hello

Could the valleys see a little snow Sunday night and Monday, lots of models showing 1- 2 inches around Asheville NC

Based on their latest disco, I think they'll wait till the very last second for this one. Way too many stars need to align for this thing to be "dangerous" IMO. Sterling / LWX quote snippet sums up this whole mess perfectly:

We agree about the NAM. I mentioned it just for purposes of reference. I give it very little weight at this timeframe and I'm looking forward to its retirement. I started somewhat conservatively, as there is enormous spread among the guidance and among the NBM's 25th/75th percentiles and 10th/90th percentiles. Hopefully, the spread will be smaller after the 12z and 18z cycles. I'll revisit the numbers late in the day. Finally, as you note, 4"-8" might also be a better initial call.

Backside energy is sharpening the trough quickly at 54, looks decent so far.

Some of you already know this, but we're moving to Kearneysville, WV in April (unless something falls through at the last minute- hopefully not!). The GFS would make for a nice grand finale for my nearly 13 years in Southern Maryland. We'll still be visiting Breezy Point every October and St. Michaels every December, so both sides of the shore will still be seeing us. I'll still be checking on this thread too occasionally.

So a close second, Until 18z. lol