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This is definitely what happened; one of my close weather buddies lives on western LI and he was basically shut out on most models until NAM started the northern trend. He went from expecting 2-4" to 1-2 feet in the last few days leading up to the storm.

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!!

tick west. Nothing exciting. It's going to likely look like it's last run.

midsection of the country went from early spring to deep winter in the space of 7-10 day

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

Not sure if our host is working on scoring results, I had a look at all entries, these were lowest totals I found (if you are not in this unofficial list, your total error was >20"): (no guarantees of this list matching official contest results) 1. Digityman _____________ 9.3 2. GregRups21 ___________ 10.9 3. WeatherGeek2025 ____ 11.7 4. LVBlizzard ____________ 12.7 t5. BRSno, snywx ________ 13.7 7. GATECH ______________ 14.5 8. JM1220 ______________ 14.7 9. CPCantmeasuresnow_ 16.0 (using entry of measured 8.5 CP, would be 14.3 using entry of actual 10.2 CP) 10. hudsonvalley21 ______ 16.5 11. RJay _________________ 18.0 12. Don Sutherland ______ 18.8 13. Neg NAO _____________19.1 14. Snowlover11 _________20.0 15. powpow ____________ 20.1 ======================= (rest are 20.1 +) (RS was 21.8 despite lowest error BOS) x. TriPol _________________ 20.9 _ note this entry has 0 for PHL if that was a typo the total would have been less (in this calculation it is 9.3" of the total) (this entry would be 4th if the 0 for PHL was meant to be 9, or 10) NOTE: Of all entries, four were below 12.6" actual for Albany, none were above actual 23.2" for Boston. It appears that Hartford was our most accurate consensus forecast followed by DC, generally too low for PHL and NYC and too high for ALY

Ooops

Pretty expansive snow cover. Lake Erie is essentially almost all frozen over. Lake Huron is building some ice cover. Been a while since we've seen such expansive snow cover east of the Rockies. North and even South Carolina will pickup some solid snow depth over the weekend to fill in the map even more.

Enjoying following this thread and hoping that here in the New Bern/Crystal Coast area we have a nice (and rare) snow!

The lobe is slightly west compared to 12Z

According to the new king, NextWeather 2.0, there IS something to keep an eye on for that time frame. .

NAM popping a low over Arkansas at hour 33. Are we about to get NAMed?

How good are the models at accounting for virga in the total QPF output? On the western side we'll be fighting for every tenth of an inch we can get so that will matter.

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That's because it is this weekends systems snow map

18z running now

One interesting thing to note over the past 3 runs in MBY the GFS AI and EURO AI have only made small adjustments in QPF in the amount of .05-.08 either up or down. Where-as the OP EURO and OP GFS over the past three runs have had more wild swings in QPF of .22"-.27". When looking at the ensembles for both EURO and EURO AI as well as GFS those QPF swings are much smoother and the difference is not as much of a wild swing as the OPs have been showing from time to time. Thinking about the models this way and really digging into the ensembles has helped me to not ride each single OP run for the potential wild ups and downs that it may show. All and all after looking at many different averages and taking the fairly rock steady ensembles into account I am starting to feel confident that my area will see somewhere between .35"-.45" of precip and factoring in about a 16-17:1 ratio, amounts should be in the range of 6"-7".

That map is from todays storm, not Feb. 4

Billy Preston "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing." 0 - 0 = 0 0 x 0 = 0 0 / 0 = 0 0 + 0 = 0

I’ve been saying this for years…everybody assumes, and all the time I might add, that the modeling has a perfect handle on all the players. If we were 36-48 hrs out, then that’s a little different story. But at 4 days it’s comical. And these people do this every single storm when it’s close. Folks never seem to learn. Send the hurricane hunters out, and get some good sampling into the models, and if it’s still the same, then we can write it off for good. The HH did that last week, and it changed everything. Need to do it again. As I said yesterday, OTS is a bigger concern than an occluded storm…at least for CT anyway. Further north maybe a different story. But I’ll take my chances with a powerhouse that’s peaked a little south/southwest of me.

It looks like this weekend's storm has the same mechanisms occurring as that one, like ULL?

Except it hasn’t

Nice catch

What time will we see the next NAM run?

Depends on how gun shy they are from last weekend. I lived through February 2013 (Nemo) in long Island. I will never forget that deformation band.. While that's extreme, this could definitely rival some of the deform bands I lived through in the NE Reminds me of dark knight storm I vote for @lilj4425 It was HM, not him that has the big daddy hat right? I sometimes wonder if Snobal from the accuwx forums is able to control important model runs