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Man it’s gonna be balls cold and brown.

This. 2018-19 nino was a wimp that never fully coupled and got interfered with a lot...

Funny...the main culprit for how shitty our winters had been was the string of +WPO seasons...well, in the ultimate FU, Mother nature said "here you go".

Great find. 6 inches of snow and 40mph winds. Wow! Not a good time to be above 5000'. Almost seems like a WSW is applicable at higher elevations for this one?

I see Morristown has issued a WWA starting tomorrow afternoon at 3PM along theborder. GSP is likely to follow this afternoon for the Border Counties.

No, moderate Niño.

The main miss for me so far is the HUGE -WPO this season...I was thinking modestly positive in the mean. I wish I were right bc although it would be milder, we can pretty much guarantee that there would have been more snow.

lol

How about a modoki? Now, I don't know much about developing ninos...but I wonder when we'll know where this one is gonna set up?

Clarksville

Yeah I know...but I was talking more about how we had so many of them.

Just give me a weak, west based El Nino. The last few El Ninos that we've had have either been basin wide or east based. Neither are good for snow lovers.

The biggest fly in the ointment for all of us is that we accomplished an awesome ridge out west but it’s tilted to the east at the top. That’s what’s screwing us down the line. You can’t get any energy to drop into a better spot than the plains when the ridge is kicking the energy over Hudson Bay before dropping it in.

May need the tanning oil too

I’m not disappointed in this winter at all so far. Yes it sucks that we have not got any snow yet, but it’s been chilly to cold most of the winter so far.

Half of those ninas had the too warm discussion.

CMC has light snow on the 18th, and a follow up clipper on the 20th. GFS ensembles average a few inches for the 18th, but ensembles usually follow the OP. Ensembles had several inches of snow on Saturday for the 16th when the OP was going crazy for the 16th. Either way, the long range looks quite cold from the Dakotas through the southeast. In the 2000s and 2010s, that would mean several snowstorms. We'll see what happens

GEFS looks pretty good starting this weekend. Interested if it will consolidate around a single threat/timing because there are members showing snow anywhere from the 17th-21st.

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't so don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce.

Yeah which is why I’m looking forward to the gradient pattern at this point. We might get a cutter but at least there will be QPF events to track in that type of pattern.

I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend. The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs. Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather. That said....we feel your pain. Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun. For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.

That flu is no joke! Hope you get well soon John!

Feel better soon. I hope you were able to get on an anti-viral. They say they can really help if started in the first 48 hours.

Yeah, man. Big ol' banana over the top in the medium and LR. EPO -> AO -> NAO.