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Thanks, man...will probably reference this in the February preview to buttress my pre-season work.

Yeah seems like every year there's something brewing around MLK Day and about 50% of the time it verifies! In other news. Looks like another rainy Eagles game Sunday.

Goff Law has about 95% of the highway advertisement billboards

I agree, I have sent many times that the only thing going for us in terms of snowfall prospects is the fact in New York City has had about 8 inches of snow so far. Early season snow totals in a La Niña winter or are usually a good indication of what happens in the rest of winter. But time is ticking, and there is nothing on the horizon. We will need an extraordinary February to reach our seasonal snowfall.

Yeah. Still sitting in the 20s right now. Ice ice baby

Nice symmetry in the west Pac this am and it looksl ike it is having an impact where we want it.

Precisely as planned AFAIC....only wrinkle so far has been the huge -WPO ridge making December even colder than thought.

For your info 2020 - 2021 was a LaNina winter in NYC and December had 10 inches - Jan 2 inches and Feb 26 inches - I don't even know why i respond to your nonsense ! Next !

I have noticed ice on certain surfaces even just above freezing at certain points this season given all of the cold that has been around....

This place needs a full time psychiatrist on staff.

It was pretty icy in my area...28 and raining moderately when I left. 2 hour delay for school. My side street was slippery, but main roads fine. Snow is now encased. 29.8 now.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL117289 Here's a recent publication I found. Normally just lurk here. So far, great outlook.

That 06z GFS was a real slop storm for the mountains. PLenty of qpf, but temps struggle to get down to or below freezing. Even after the storm, there's still no real intrusion of arctic air anywhere near the southeast. After the storm pass, we're right back to where we're at. As we all know, it is the GFS. TW

Snowblower got a workout from that storm.

Upstate SC hasn’t seen at least an inch of snow in over four years. About to make it five. This Winter is boring.

1000mb mean pressure at this range is actually pretty significant.

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system. It's Miller A. The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything. The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there. The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either. The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be. Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances. The take away is that the signal is still there.

huge storm potential

EPS snow went from 0 to 1.5

A lot may hinge on the NAO cooperating as to whether this pattern is legit or not

Euro is close but out to sea. Man I hope the GFS is on to something and it isn't just more feedback.

Dover with 0.01” since midnight. And nothing upstream incoming… Bust.

Worst icing of this event are points south in SNE/CNE. Even the batch in western MA will miss my area to the south, later today.

Poor Wes