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WB 12Z EPS probs ( all Day 7 onward) .... 1, 3, and 6 inches.

Agree with above, but def very modest departures.

I’ll happily take anything from that first system but I think the real threat is the MLK one. Need that first one to clear and help slow the flow down behind it some, give us a better chance at a phase. Better downstream ridging and a bit of -NAO wouldn’t hurt either if we’re making requests.

I agree there is more than just that. Just ready for some winter weather action in my area

There is a lot of drivers of the upcoming pattern. Cannot focus just on the mJo.

The temperature departure for January is going to be near normal by the end of today, if not tomorrow, in many places in the East, with the warmup just starting. I don't see sustained cold anywhere in the near future. We may not end up the absurd positive temperatures of January 2017 or 2023, but January should end with above average temperature departures in most places in the East.

That island is beautiful.

I think the mjo is moving but will it change the pattern to colder? I hope it does or whatever else we need.

Some folks had asked me to perform an analysis of both the Winter and Summer Average Temperature by Complete Decades for just here in Chester County from the 1900's thru the 2010's. You will see the very cyclical nature of our warming and cooling patterns. Overall, we have seen some slight warming of winters and conversely some cooling of our summers across Chester County PA. The warmest decade for both summers and winters was way back in the 1930's. Of note so far here in the partial decade of the 2020's we are so far running as the warmest winter decade since the 1930's!! However, last winter was the coldest winter in 10 years and we are off to a colder than normal start to this winter so we will wait and see if this is the start of the next cooling trend across the County. These are also updated on the http://www.chescowx.com website. Let me know if you have any questions.

Yeah i was just looking at the radar loop and it's like hitting a wall at the RI/MA boarder. That was a very anomalous event overall. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-7-8-2013

Just saw 12z Euro. definitely looked more interesting between 15th-19th compared to GFS. Lets go

Have not hit freezing here the last 2 nights- tonight will be our 3rd straight....

Are you a time traveler?

March '13 is probably the most egregious example of this

nobody knows anything yet, it could be sunny or rainy or smowy, by sunday we should know somewhat, by tuesday consensus!

Yea, you also said something to the effect of "am I crazy for thinking we could go on a Jan 2011 type of run". That is when I responded with the lack of blockbuster cool ENSO months of February. I know that wasn't a forecast per se...breaking balls...

76” here

High of 46F

Lol in the long range thread

I know I'm asking too early, but my reasoning is that I'm due to land at EWR at 2 pm next Friday; what time is this showing? Better question, when would we have a better, clearer picture on timing? Yours in lunacy.

51F/Looks like we may not go below freezing tonight...

That’s interesting, because it clearly shows that there was quite some variability in the effects from that storm, even within the same town. I was actually referring specifically to our observations site when I wrote “minimally degraded the snowpack here or resulted in a net gain in snowpack liquid equivalent.”. So the focus was our site and the mountains; I didn’t mean to imply “here” in the more regional sense. I cored the snowpack before the storm on December 15th and there was 1.26” of liquid in it, and then I cored it again after the storm on December 20th and there was 0.70” of liquid in it. So, we lost about ½” of liquid from the snowpack over the course of the storm, which I felt was fairly minimal relative to the event as a whole (the totals for the storm were 0.91” of liquid equivalent and 0.5” of snow). There’s definitely some room for debate about just how minimal/moderate one considers that, but if that’s what happened at our site in the valley, then the mountains must have incorporated all that liquid and hardly missed a beat. The other warm event I was considering in that post (Winter Storm Ezra) was later in the month, and it brought 1.24” of liquid equivalent and 3.2” of snow. In association with that event, the snowpack at our site went from 1.63” of liquid on the 28th to 1.93” of liquid on the 30th. Aside from the snow “quality” issue after that storm, that seems quantitatively like a gain for the snowpack at our site in the valley, and if that’s what happened down at our site, the mountain snowpack should have had the capacity to just gobble up everything that storm had to offer (which should have been 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent). When we’re talking the 12-14” of liquid that PF measured in the higher elevation snowpack, I’d think both of those events would have minimal effects.

Thanks Kevin! it's my original training and early career as an accountant that makes me like to play with numbers