All Activity

I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer.

Low of 32 and quite frosty

Falls Lake is becoming an issue again for sure:

Same general theme with more amplitude and warmth potential.

Will it even snow this year?

Well it looks to be dry as a bone this week. So much for any rain from that coastal.

Similar to yesterday 27.7.

31 this morning yesterday was 32

The early freezes are right up there with my least favorite weather in New England. Global warming hasn’t helped us in this regard, even though we won’t see first white rain flakes until December

Rooftop frost on about every house in my neighborhood

Looks like 2023-2024 to me.

34.6 low! Not to much frost . .

31 here this morning with heavy frost.

Back to back "vanishing" freezes here in Methuen ..lol

Smells like 22-23, which is odd because it was a La Nina with a strong -PDO, and the tropical forcing was totally different.

Growing season lives on here - low of 35 the past 2 mornings with zero frost.

looks warm

30 with fog and frost this morning.

Another 37.8°

37.2 with some frost

Yes sir. Coldest morning of the season so far here in the lowlands. 35 in my yard as well. I think we have our first light frost. Early this season. Winter- 1, Nino- 0 so far.

The models are developing two upper low pressure centers in the North Pacific as we head into late October. One area of lower pressures has already been developing over the Bering Sea through the first 16 days of October. The next center is forming over California and the Baja. My guess is that the stronger mid-latitude pattern which has been keeping the big ridge east of Japan is currently overlapping with the super El Niño forcing. Almost like a filter if you like. So this leads to the persistent -PDO that we have been experiencing instead of a +2.00 PDO which we would normally be getting with such a strong El Niño and +PMM. With such an historic east based event, the trough getting pushed into the West Coast will cause the Nino ridge to persist from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes and into the East. October 500 mb pattern through the 16th Forecast into late November