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They are connected. I know for me, understanding what boots it out to sea helps to determine how to get it to snow.

Pretty much everything is in the 0.5-.7" range. 6z 12k nam was probably the driest of the 6z models, but 3k was solid.

No, I mean there's a need for a narrative, because people want big solutions, and then you have a counter narrative in every storm, "it's gone." Every model in this context is evidence of an outcome that isn't just some middling thing, it's all heading to something else. I know the solution tends to more accuracy as we have better information and more time, but it could head to where it is, some brush of an event, or anything else within a reasonable envelope.

I think he has Jan 22 PTSD.

Yeah probably.

MAYBE base the snow potential on the GFS Snow depth... so you are closer the end result than what you see from the 10:1 crazy stuff! LOL! The GFS is going to be the exaggerated fish story that people share! I agree the Euro upper levels look better. This has favored (at least in my mind) a miss with the best chance east and northeast. If anything, the Miller B was going to screw the middle area.... pull a Raliegh... but I think the amounts will be way less like most models are clearly indicating.. and the temps are not going to help accumulations... Maybe 12z does a dramatic change... it will likely be the GFS giving up its fantasy. The gfs has been on its own a lot this year. In a way, it has made us track longer than we should have. Thanks for the input from the Mets and the more thoughtful posters!

Wait…are we looking for ways to snow or a way to boot it OTS?

It’s the shit behind it that kicks it or pushes it east. Can see it at 500 as ridge gets Kid N Play haircut.

So gross out. Bring back those single digit temps!

February 19 1928: A dust storm moves across Minnesota, causing lights to be turned on in the daytime in the Twin Cities. For Thursday, February 19, 2026 1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum) 1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum) 1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. <a href="http://islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/diaryfeb.htm">The Weather Doctor</a>

Well, whatever...we don't want it to do what the EURO has it doing.

I think we still got a solid shot at a 1-3 inch paste job but unless we get the GFS to be mostly right anything bigger is unlikely.

No, but you know when he finally gets one of the 50 "right" he'll honk it for months

Doesn't mean it's correct in doing so. The Euro correctly has that energy kick the developing blizzard out over the ocean.

I’ve been trying to see how that plays in with this but I think we want that as well to help Fuji it more north.

6z GEFS, EPS & AI EPS agree on at least a solid Advisory level snow for us this Sunday into Monday.

I think if the models suck me back in on this one.. which I haven't been feeling in the least, I'm going to have to start name calling said models

Why? It’s the only model giving SNE a big event. We need to kick the system more north.

No Biggie. 38 low dews and a lot of clouds won’t hurt too much. Yesterday was far worse with rain and 37

100% correct!

We need the follow up crap over MN to weaken....DT mentioned that and it's a solid point.

My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision.

A lot of left learners on long range SREF

Sometimes there’s model wide failures in depicting features. There’s still time for that given the mess out west. But yeah, every 6hrs of near status quo won’t get us there.

I think that late January threat after the blizzard is a pretty good analog.