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Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1". Be happy, be ecstatic with that right now. Be happy, be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios. Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens. To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish.

dude... it's NOT drier?

I'm not far behind 16" is where i cap off from Feb 2001, Mar 2001, Feb 2021, some day.

Finally getting into the heavies at 96

It’s about to bring it

We’re like 96-102 hours from start time. I don’t see an issue with making a thread. We can migrate over there at some point today.

Ummm...

Siggghhhhhhhh

GFS at 90., qpf field a tick N

540 line is identical to the 6Z

12z GFS looks like a few inches of snow up front then a massive sleet fest with ZR after.

Burying energy like the icon.

The 12z GFS is a true over-running event. First wave rolls in flat w/ energy being held back over Texas. Next wave should be inbound in a sec...likely ice.

Lock this.

Yeah I do totally get it. Been on that side of watching models dump just to my south while I’m getting flurries. I want everyone to cash in, with limited sleet and double digit totals.

a decent bit will be lost to sublimation.

PE is over?

So far a lil drier than 6z. Just waiting to see what that next panels show

Checkout the dewpoints on the GFS with the backdoor CAD front. -8 at RDU by 18z Saturday right before the precip starts.

AIGFS held serve if not got slightly better.

The transition is pretty quick on this run. This would be a freaking mess. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

+1° for the low here

Kiss of death