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@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

Sure but that has nothing to do with the morning snow

41 here and clouding up.

Sigh.

CPC d8-14 and d6-10 analog probability maps for temps.

The LR pattern depictions should viewed like an art dealer examining a work they think is fake.

i wouldn't go that far; its been piddly events for lots of us followed by a dry warm stretch. hopefully that is turning around. today we got a surprise 2.2 inches imby, if RU is accurate; when i emerged from the theater, after suffering through 3 hours of avatar, wondering when it would end, i was shocked to see plowable snow; the mall was busy too. i. guess we're around 10-12 for the season. we would need a lot more of these events to get to seasonal average here; i think we have been in a drier climate a few years, so a big daddy is probably unlikely, though i lucked out in feb 2024 with that 10-12 inch storm.

4.7" at Canistear Reservoir in Vernon, NJ.

Lean on ensembles after D5 folks…

1” in Syosset

Yes it does.

Just looking through the 12z and 18z suites....there is a very strong signal for possible two shots of cold air that could push near zero temps into our forum area. This fits with recent Nina winters. I will wait a couple of days before fully embracing that look, but for now...I would say confidence is growing that very cold air may pay us a visit. Need about 48 hours more of model runs to be sure.

Next weekend has big overrunning potential .

Check out the 18z. Further south because of the press to the north .

Just watching a pretty potent storm on the Gulf Coast get sheared into shit on the models. Unreal.

It is probably over done, but there are places in the forum that are projected to be nearly 15-20 degrees BN for a 7 day time frame. There is a 5 day time frame that is over 20 degrees BN. Incredibly impressive numbers. I have to think that we see some severe winter weather somewhere in the forum with that. Very concerned about ice.

Widespread 2-4” would be my call

It was mid 40s all afternoon here. Good to see the snow over performed where it fell.

2.8 nyack

18z GFS holds steady with its cold and wintry look.

Hard to see 4”

You know how ninas are

12/5 0.2” 12/13 2.8” 1/1 0.1” 1/17 0.4” Total: 3.5”

1.7 Jersey City heights

Been this way for a few years now… .