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Figured that, was just musing. And yes, I had 2.4" here in Metuchen and I thought @Rtd208had ~3" in Carteret, NE of me by about 8 miles, which would make sense.

I have no idea why he posts this crap. Its not going to boost morale when half the forum is about to bail on winter already lol. FOCUS ON THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THIS RANGE. Fucking fuck the goddamn snow maps FFS.

If the Spire is in, then I’m in.

More than mood flakes here today. Heaviest squall had visibility <500 feet at its height. So windy by the lake here plus the ice coating everything that not much snow was added on the level. There is however a newly formed drift out back I measured at 21". Yard decorations suffered wind damage but we did keep power. A few impressive gusts and even still getting some now occasionally. Police and fire dept's were non-stop figured wx related.

1/6 could morph into something worth tracking if we can get it inside 6 days. The larger signal is 1/8-9 but that has a ways to go. But overall a good pattern coming up. Nice to have in early January for once. Feels like we’ve been fighting garbage patterns in early January so often over the last decade or even longer. We had a lot of good early Januarys in the 2009-2014 time frame. Since then I feel like maybe only 2018…maybe 2024 if we want to count that one threat on 1/7 but it really wasn’t a cold pattern at all.

Pack remains in Chester; some decent piles in the shopping center in the middle of town; winter vibes for sure Winds are howling, temp at 29; looks like for the next 7+ we won’t crack 32.

In the sun exposed spots grass is def showing especially under trees . while other areas of lawn have 2” or so . About 90% full coverage . Sheet of ice now on driveway and street

P20 seems about right

Yeah the signal for a storm on the 18z GEFS isnt great. Its there, but not overly impressive. That said, we are 10 days out, and the h5 look IS consistently conducive across guidance.

You know i will baby, very tightly.

Even the Spire model agreed on a KU

Sorry to hear you’re not feeling well, Will, but…the f*ck are you talking about?

Please bring back the weenie of the year award.

Little to no support for the Op, got it

That looks like fun up here.. winds were ripping as the front came through but pretty calm now.. black ice is a major issue now

Roads are a disaster already. Just went to cumberland farms and was sliding in a few spots.. driveway is pure black ice

We had just done a thinning at our family tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole

WB 18Z GEFS snow totals through Day 13....everyone just needs to keep expectations in check with one day 10 forecast run of a global model. Hopefully the pattern will deliver. Fighting stomach flu and taking down Christmas decorations. It was nice to get a good run to brighten my spirits.

We have a good pack that should be concrete by tomorrow morning. Did you all see the Top Golf fencing come down with the ice and wind in Auburn Hills, Michigan? Incredible videos online showing the weight of the ice and then the wind. Sad they will have to cancel their New Year's Eve party this year.

Buckle up

Definitely looks like some model watching is taking shape. GaWx has had some great info. on the other forum. Let’s hope we keep the MJO going.

Man, the GEFS ensemble and deterministic after d8 are waaaaay out there on an island. The 18z GEFS going the deterministic run. The 18z GEFS ensemble has no support from any other ensemble run. The 18z AIGFS(which JB hates) is truly an awesome pattern by the end of its run.

There's probably some timing differences between members. A 72 hr snap shot might be better