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Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.

The semi weenie, optimistic one? Uh oh, what have I just done? BP fastball down the middle.

12/30/00 was a really annoying storm in central and east-central MA. Took forever to start (you can see how all the precip filled in west first despite it moving almost due north), and then once it got going it didn’t last all that long. It was heavy but then dryslotted pretty quick.

If the euro started to strengthen that coastal even 3-6 hours sooner you’re talking probably close to 6” in eastern ma and cape. Obviously a big ask at this lead, but those anomalies are right off the cape

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.

CPC doing CPC things today.

I'll be labelled a deb downer but I'm getting the same feelings I had a couple years ago when we were promised the epic February period. Luckily it's only Jan, so even if it sucks we still at least have February for something. But I'm wary of any map forecasting AN precip in our region. We haven't had that all year outside of some isolated thunderstorms which don't count in January, so I'm side-eyeing that map.

Euro keeps trying to show an IVT associated with the offshore storm on 1/4 as a northern stream shortwave moves over our region to cause it…wouldn’t be much but another inch or two could happen around that time.

Euro brings us a small hit tonight

PVA is pretty damned strong in this. That’s a vigorous vortmax. Could be a quick moderate/heavy burst in there with that.

He, or or she, is the resurrection of snowman18, who was cloned several years ago into snowman19.

It was not that long ago that the temps on the weeklies showed it would be around the 10th when temps would start to go below average and the pattern would begin to be conducive for snow. If there is no tracking by mid month, I will be disappointed. Until then, patience is needed, and maybe we will get lucky with a small event before then....I am watching Sunday.... WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z.

Maybe the cuts at the NWS nationwide is part of the reason the GFS is bipolar. Truly unbelievable how bad it’s gotten. I never thought the GEM would be scoring better than the GFS. Gracious next will be the JMA outperforming the GFS.

I've been complaining about lack of rain since spring. Unfortunately it's getting really bad in my parts. We are way under in precip for the year, and it looks to continue in the new year.

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more.

ORH has been slightly BN for snowfall in December but not by a lot. November was a goose egg though so seasonal is behind by a 2-3” more.

I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way.

Said that a page back Mike…but ya, absolutely.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I can't say what will happen, but I can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days.

Wasn’t expecting this. I’m heading out to pick up my kiddo in Colrain and roads are coated up already.

eh the first week of January was always iffy...only a small part of the country(us) had BN temps....the rest was a blowtorch.

Many many mets have a warm bias

This is my problem they change a forecast 30 times before the day happens and say they are accurate.

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow. Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.