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Not putting this in the main thread, but my rule of thumb is to not put much of any stock into the NAM until the whole storm for our region is within 60 hours.

Looking more like PD-2 in 2003.

Yup especially during the strongest bands

expect the nam to do a lot of weird things over the next 24-48 hours, some things people will like and some they won't lol

Hey, I wishcasted this thing to shift north... it just went a little too far north

Probably like you, I have never in my life wished for a 33 degree rain, but here we are. Guess there's a first time for everything.

I’m not sure what altitude the warm layer will occupy, but generally, for the reasons you mention, freezing rain is generally not a thing in the mountains. The high peaks in particular should be fine. Valleys like Boone can still have sone issues, but I can’t see prolonged freezing rain above 3,000 feet unless us down in the flatlands get mostly sleet.

If the Nam flips the same time as the other models it would be a huge hit

Excerpt from my early November outlook. January 17, 1971: PV Split December 4, 1981: PV Displacement February 11, 2001: PV Split January 2, 2002: PV Displacement February 22, 2008: PV Displacement January 7, 2013: PV Split February 12, 2018: PV Split March 20, 2025: PV Displacement The majority of the SSW events are split between the mid winter months of January and February, with three events per month. There is also an outlier event in December,1981 and March 2025. The primary analog events of January 17, 1971 and February 11, 2001 were both accompanied by PV splits and are the only two members to appear in both of the QBO and solar analog composites. The primary analog event of February 12, 2018 also ultimately culminated in a split of the PV, and is a member of the QBO and ENSO composite. This lends more credence to the mid winter outlier scenario that contains 6/8 the analogs. Thus the favored timeframe for a SSW and subsequent split of the polar vortex is during the January 17 to February 17 timeframe, with an increased emphasis on the latter portion of this window, which favors late season NAO blocking to commence roughly in early March.

Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help. Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then? Are they basing it solely on the Euro? In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power. Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all.

21 year anniversary for one of the GOATs in SE MA and perhaps THE GOAT on the Cape. It was kind of meh west of ORH but what a ferocious storm for the east. The winds were very strong in this one and the airmass was exceptional. It was similar to the airmass this weekend.

700s and 850s below 0 at 12z. Why the sleet

So that’s 4z-12z or 8 hours of snowfall before the flip.

Its south early but the 540 is almost the same Sunday 7AM

Fv3 is FRIGID with widespread zr. Nam came in colder. Not worried about its precip. It's horrifically dry in the long range.

What are expected rates per hour? Is 2" possible during the heaviest time frame?

Didn’t you know that you’re supposed to post that with a lot mor cursing and whining?

The Low is nearly in the gulf this run..

Hopefully the QPF amounts are better, after 18Z was rather anemic. That seems to be the biggest thing if we want a solid thump of heavy snow before any flip to sleet/ice.

Eh. That's fair.

It seems this is growing as a long drawn out multi day winter storm. I know it was already going to be but I expected it to be outta here by Sunday afternoon.