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Yup,that time of year is upon us where everyone installs and gets em up .. and in.

Legitimately missed out on the rain today, 0.01” total. Everything this evening evaporated moving in and then reformed east of here

I'll bet we can salvage that...we just ended an incredible decade of predominately +WPO....it just flipped this past season, so probably due for continued regression there.

I hope so.

Luckily we can track that way ahead of time as Global SSTAs have a huge correlation with following season WPO

Yea, looks like WPO is going to be key to salvage a decent northeast snowfall season...only 1982 wasn't a disaster, which has a -WPO.

El Nino/+QBO December's: 6/6 months were warm in the Great Lakes/NE

I always associated El Niño with a cool summer, a cold fall that turns mild in December and then can go either way after that depending on strength, location, etc. 2014 did that(at least over here), 2009 had the cold October after a very cool summer and 2006 seemed to follow the Nino script also. But the 15-16 Nino did not and they haven’t since.

Pass. That’d be brutal.

It certainly seems like it, some places around here were in the 90s yesterday. We had mid to upper 80s in early March. Jan 26, 2024 DC hit 80 degrees. A lot of very impressive spikes in the past few years. Summer is a season where wavelengths relax so the general pattern (warming) is more prevalent. Not to mention 3 of the mostly anomalously warm months on record for CONUS happened this Winter

I feel like the changes in the Pacific after the mid 2010s also took away the cooler summers.

March monthly NAO crushed it.. +2.69 for the month. Number 2 highest March NAO on record was +1.85 It also beat the most negative month of March on record, 1962, -2.47.

Not trying to be a jerk here.but he forgot a lot. That said, i'm sure as we get closer, Dt will be quite informative.

Will this be a cooler Summer??

perfect!

I always appreciate what Dt has to say, but im not exactly feeling this one. It seems like he's only included worst case scenarios. What if it's a meduki or central based moderate /strong among many other questions. A lot of possibilities he didn't include while making uncertainties seem certain.

Totally worth it!

Probably, so I am willing to bet it will stink, aside from maybe one great storm. I don't feel as optimistic after seeing that RONI vs ONI relationship, as I was already leery of that after 2023.. Still plenty of time to and data to consider, though. I do wonder if we see that gap begin to close, though with the changes underway in the Pacific..that maybe what we need.

0.55” here

Enjoy!

Yup. Like the one that got a lump of coal...lol

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less intense in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.

You are misunderstanding me....I know what RONI is...it's not the reading itself that I am concerning myself with. It's what it represents....we WANT the El Niño to correlate to the North Pacific pattern, so having the RONI lag the ONI does not mean that it's a "weaker" El Niño...it means that there is another force, likely of cool ENSO ilk, competing with the El Nino, and it's not forcing the north Pac pattern to a degree commensurate with the ONI intensity. If it were simply a weaker El Niño....it's probably more west-based and the Aleutian low is thus further west, which is favorable....but a lower RONI may mimic a west-based in the SST pattern, but actually has so much warmth in the western Pacific as to introduce more MC forcing than is typical in a potent El Niño. We'll see what happens have a lower RONI again in another strong El Niño.

He forgot one… This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter. Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.