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A few days in the 40’s ( if it’s even that ) ain’t a heater Ricky

Here's a deck pic from the Tug for this snow starved thread lol. Almost 4' overnight.

Call me crazy but we have had bigger wind events from fronts then actual noreasters past year or 2?

if we don't know, how do we know it's 3-4 days? we don't

GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE.

When mother nature calls us back.

accumulation in the overnight and early morning because that's how we roll

Heater looks longer than 1-2 days unfortunately.

lol unreal

they ruined the GFS. All it does is show dry and torch. Better hope for some good EPS runs today

GFS had an ideal fantasy situation. Caribbean tropical wave about to try and phase with a bunch of other shortwaves.

Honest question. But Why 3-4 days? What do you see in guidance that suggests that?

It never looked long even if it milds up for a day or two. Very muted and meh

Absolutely. And, It’s a marriage of sorts is what a veteran MET once told me. I think that analogy is a perfect example.

That midweek storm still looks wintry. Snow to ice/ mix SNE

Kiffin is enjoying it too - think he got a $500k bonus from last night’s win lol

The 12z GFS and GEM....now, that is a much better way to start a suite. Very, very close to being something good. I would think models are getting a handle on that EPO ridge now. Plenty to digest with those two.

Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation.

Warmup doesnt seem long anymore. Models seem to focus on the flip around the 12th.

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN. GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

The banter in the Jan Med/LR thread this morning (and much of the last few days/weeks) is too much. Wish people would move it here to Banter where it belongs. It's no wonder why so many red taggers and the more established members of the forum have absconded the last few years. We've seen the flood of banter in the LR before during times when there's not much to track and run-to-run hope-casting drives the dialogue; it's getting old (despite the best efforts from the more established members to normalize expectations). Been on this forum since nearly day one and was a long timer on Eastern before going back to the late 90's. The influx of banter in the Med/LR has always been a challenge, but it's much worse in recent years (as others have commented about on why they no longer post much). Maybe that's the result of the explosion of social media where the trend today is to type and send before thinking. There's so many posts that people unleash in a knee-jerk reaction that should be considered for a while and then deleted; as some have commented about doing themselves (for those who exercise good self-moderation, hats off!) Again, the focus is on the smut in the LR page. Many of the newer posters need to either post their banter here or read more and post less in the LR page. We all want snow, but the other junk is getting old.

Well i successfully shoveled my driveway earlier this time versus yesterday doing it then having a 10 minute coughing /gagging attack cause of this dam cold! Yey!

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit.

Both can work in New England. Some huge storms here with both. -PNA you don’t want it dipping down in Mexico though …you don’t want it to severe.

It depends...the issue isn't as binary as the question implies. It depends on the pattern and location....generally speaking, +PNA is beneficial anywhere on the east for cold, phase potential....but in the northeast, sometimes a more neutral or even negative PNA is preferred if there is a major NAO block....below about 40N, you always want a +PNA.