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Nolo appears to be wrapping convection around the eye now and trying to mix out some dry airmass. We'll see just how strong it can get prior to the closest approach of the Big Island.

Fay looks like it is going to run out of time again. Clearly, the dry environment is causing issues and inhibiting core development. Increasing shear will start impacting the system by this afternoon.

Polo is still putting on a show once again. The eye has warmed and the CDO has cooled. It probably will regain Category 5 intensity on the next update.

Happening as we get closer to gametime too. Might be converging toward that middle ground I talked about last night. Another 50-100mi north wouldn't be outrageous. This is still a tough setup to precisely predict.

Seems most storms get pulled north and east the last 24 to 48 hours hopefully this works in our favor.. 12z will be interesting either way

Lots of mesoscale models(NAM, HRDPS, RGEM, etc) have been ramping up the short term intensity of the storm +24h tonight

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

Rain forecasts from the GFS and Euro at 00z. Ugly stuff from the Euro.

Really seems like people might be sleeping on the weekend threat but that's just me ..

I really don’t at this point in my life. But like writing, it’s seems it does have writing on some sort of wall.

0Z UKMET Nolo: still stays significantly S of Big Island but 9/30+ again turns NE to not too far S of Big Island: HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 156.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 14.9N 156.1W 990 46 1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 155.8W 985 57 0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 15.9N 155.0W 983 65 1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 15.9N 154.4W 985 55 0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.3N 154.7W 985 50 1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 14.2N 155.4W 988 42 0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.4N 156.4W 989 41 1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 157.5W 988 43 0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.0N 158.6W 984 51 1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.7N 159.1W 982 56 0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.5N 158.6W 977 60 1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 16.1N 157.3W 975 61 0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.5N 155.8W 983 54 1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.0N 154.7W 989 52 0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.6N 154.3W 995 42

As he licks his chops he theoretically hopes it misses?

If the high pressure over SE Canada does a 50/50, we are in quite the pickle for us “flat-landers”

0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW: TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26 1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31 0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30 1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27 0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23 1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23 0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22 1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22 0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22 1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24 0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26 1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26 0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29 1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30 0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

I’m still hungry. Still waiting for my dinner of “words”, cuz I do not want this for me/family and friends, but sadly the trend is not a friend I have..

Only reason k remember 3ff of snow is because, the precursor storm was plowing MLway above model expectations.

Two things can be true at the same time. Take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies: Gulf of Mexico is far and away the warmest compared to average to date at the moment. Central Atlantic top 3, subtropic Atlantic top 5. That you can't deny without trying to discredit the satellite data. At the same time though, obviously shear is an overwhelming issue in the Atlantic basin, given that the El Nino is the most anomalous feature on the planet. But importantly, take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies nearer to this storm system. Surely that is promoting a stronger storm, and if you go back into the database, such anomalously warm waters only started showing up there more recently.

Remember “Nemo”? Convecfive feedback is what changed the area of highest impact 50 miles east from whom was supposed to jackpot. This is very similar. No one is gonna going to know till the beast is unleashed, and she’s just getting her tether.