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Pool is finally totally free of ice. 44F

Yeah. Heard it roaring last night. And it continues

A couple cigarette butts flicked out of car windows and we could have a ditty day.

Euro is bone dry thru the end of the month.

ACATT

April 1976 was well above average in most of New England, and above average in New York, eastern PA, and NJ. This is still Boston's warmest April on record. Although, April 2010's warmth is much more widespread for the Eastern US.

52 here. Nice morning

Euro is a torch.

Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region. Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.

41° and blowing pretty hard. I probably shouldn’t have taken any of the panels off the run yet…the chickens are getting buffeted.

47 degrees this morning. Picked up .28” of rain last evening.

Well the NWS has implemented new policy/guidance that has completely stripped the human input in forecasting for days 4-7. And even days 1-3 are heavily produced based on the NBM. Take a look at the NWS Billings AFD from 3 days ago and the note at the bottom: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBYZ&e=202604081847 So certainly the SOPs for forecasting in the NWS have completely changed. Now we're basically hitting the "send" button on whatever the NBM comes up with. And I can't emphasize enough how BAD the NBM was this past winter in many of our snowstorms. It is inherently a poor model to forecast with when you have short term model disagreement OR when you are dealing with a 90th percentile or 10th percentile type storm. The NWS Mount Holly office was still forecasting 18-24 inches of snow the starting day of the late February snowstorm out in its western CWA. And sure enough nobody saw more than 4-5" of snow. Why did this happen? Because they relied on the NBM which lags in data and model cycles AND weights certain models. Forecasting accuracy will plummet in the NWS until they figure out how to better implement the NBM and/or develop it.

Wolfie has a derangement syndrome that every warm post is about CC. Sad to see.

Shift that depiction 500 miles southwest

No. MJO 8 and 1 are warm phases in New England in April. The warm anoms in Maine and Southeast Canada will continue to shift south on guidance as it catches on. The cold anoms over the central US SE and Mid Atlantic.

How did that month rank overall Because you have to look at the whole and not just a few record days. 2010 was much warmer overall

We wish we were in Guam!! Massive typhoon headed that way.. the GFS gets down to 922mb

We should get cooler weather once the MJO travels through 8 and 1 along with the NAO and AO dipping negative.

We can hope

I don't know which stations were used. However the number is more than adequate. There is a dense network of stations in this area. Below is a comparison of raw data to NOAA. The raw data is the same chart that was posted above; but, with Avondale, 10 DEOS stations and E Nantmeal added. As described above, I've taken out the important post -war station moves: Coatesville (46+48), Phoenixville (48), and West Chester (70). I've also removed the temperature difference between stations by taking an anomaly. The anomaly period has been shifted to 2012-24 since all stations except West Chester pre-1970 operated in this period. Anomalies for West Chester are obtained using the 2.1F difference between 2012-24 and 1949-69 from the Phoenixville and Coatesville records. Removing the large post-war station moves and the differences between stations is sufficient to bring the raw data and NOAA into very good alignment for the long-term climate trend.. Not surprisingly, there are short-term differences between between the raw data and NOAA, mainly Phoenixville and Coatesville, between 1960 and 1990, when these stations had periodic adjustments. This shows that for the big picture long-term trend, most of the NOAA adjustments don't move the needle. Only the big moves, with roughly 2F cooling, obscure the warming. NOAA's goal is to remove station changes from the raw data leaving only weather and climate. This comparison shows that NOAA has met their objective in Chester County. If you aren't matching NOAA, you aren't getting the county climate right.

seems about right. That will help me.... i was close just have to move the 3" line down a bit

Many thanks to all who contributed to this thread - wow you guys sure know a lot about the big ski resorts! Those places make Mammoth look like an Allegheny foothill.

Gentlemen, this is the Mammoth Mountain Resort. I know its April but these guys are starting to get hosed down but good by snow and may get 2-3 feet by Monday morning. It's really coming down right now! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

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