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Wouldn’t that transfer?

12z HRRR is further north with the wave for Monday. Gets SW/Southern DC burbs on the northern edge of precip. An inch or so for S MD over to the lower eastern Shore.

Made a comment in the office on Friday that we may see a lot of last minute adjustments this winter as this is the kind of pattern where that happens. Shoulda taken my own advice. Monday was indeed *not* off the table completely and my original thought from last week is going to end up being at least partially correct. Still looks like a grazer, but it's going to be close for the southern end.

Unfortunately it rarely does.

Last year the Euro seasonal run in December had above normal for January and last January ended up well below normal.

Its a beautiful snowy morning here, definitely a very nickel and dime start to the season. Its been white since Nov 29, so no complaints there. But idk if I'd say its true spread the wealth. For the most part the highest amounts this early season have consistently been focused in the same general area, the same area that did so poorly last season. Its a classic example of mother nature smoothing the mean for that area.

yeah, the anomalies are always more useful

Just an awesome winter stretch so far. Cold- snow - freezing fog

I was thinking some more about the question of where do you want to focus on for the VP. I assume the ITCZ location is the main driver of that, which obviously varies a lot and isn't always +/- 5 degrees. The map I posted earlier kind of shows this too with much of the stronger forcing south of the equator near the MC. I'm also thinking more about the idea of the raw VP vs anomalies. Since the water is always warmest near the MC isn't having a standing wave there in the raw the climatology we would always expect? Like doesn't that almost always exist? And anomalies might be more useful because they show the deviations from that standing wave? I don't know, just thinking a lot this morning If you use the equator to 10S band it looks MC focused the next week, then becoming more incoherent.

And that’s totally my point…don’t need a bomb on op runs at 6-7 days away…sure, it’s fun to see, but anybody who’s been here for a while, knows that will come and go at that lead. Whatever is there will re-emerge soon.

Not very nice to say about Tyohoon Tip

There is no warmup mid December. Where are you getting that info from ? The warmups in the long range have been fake so far.

Wow that's really scary honestly. The question is, why does the runoff that goes into our storm sewers enter our drinking water supply? Storm runoff is supposed to enter local streams/rivers/lakes, or so I thought. Regardless, that water contains a lot of other chemicals as well, think about when a garbage truck leaks on your street, or a car is leaking fluids, then you get a heavy rain that rinses everything down the storm drains.

MLI with 2.2", DVN had 3.2". Ended up with 3.8" here. Luckily the freezing rain didn't last too long.

December 2023 was an all-out torch. Plus, it was in strong el nino. It's nothing alike to what we have now. The cold air is there this December. We just need a notable snowfall.

Despite being a light, fluffy snow, my 5.6" oddly has a slightly lower ratio than last weekend's wetter 11". I'm not sure how that happened.

This is why I blocked TT. It's been a better place without his nonsense. Poor kid.

Richmond is still on the lower side, but there’s so many options still in guidance. We’ll see what solution they converge to. It’s insane how far southern Virginia has been the place to be recently.

We escaped last year, but I'm not feeling good about this year Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Models have been pretty inconsistent outside of 3-4 days; let’s see how things progress this week. My concern is at some point (at least Pike South) we are going to lose the consistent normal to below normal temps we have had the last 3-4 weeks

Short range models are looking really good for you guys. Could be a nice 2-4" event for many tomorrow.

He has 1K threes more then anyone else in NBA history.

As a Tech Alum, couldn’t have happened to a better group of folks.

Looks like a decent inversion. Thurmont mesonrt site never dipped below 33°, but the low lands all got into the 20s. I just bumped into the low 30s once the sun came up.

I didn’t say that…I said it’s better that the signal is there and growing, than have some bomb that will come and go at this lead. Just like 18z GFS yesterday…it was gone next run. It’s a timeframe of interest is the point, where tele’s and the long wave pattern seem to be converging. I feel it better this at 6-7 days away, the threat will emerge/re-emerge. But nice try…you are one spooning mofo. Sad.