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The breeze is the only saving grace to an otherwise sticky day

87 / 74 in / clouds. Florida style the next few days, clouds the only caveat on record highs in the inland spots. Storms today - tomorrow (focus) but still chances Sat - SUn and Monday with trough / cold front. Cooler period 6/16 - 6/21. Beyond there likely moderation to normal as trough lifts out and next heat potential to ahead of next month.

88/75 Heat Index-98 at my station now

ILX might as well locally extend Tornado Watch 311 to everything west of I-55. Including Bloomington, Jacksonville and yes Springfield--in addition to the rest of the Peoria metro.

Classic summer morning smells.

“The scent of honeysuckle hangs in the darkness like the thick glob of sugar at the bottom of a glass of lemonade.”― Erika Robuck, Call Me Zelda Picked a few weeds this morning, took advantage of the wet ground. The smell of the honeysuckle was sicking sweet though. Usually it is just a nice backdrop.

Sometimes you just never know on this stuff. Seems like the best convection comes on so-so type setups vs the good ones.

I see HRRR and Nam3km don't bring activity in until after 10pm. Pretty late timing to be excited about severe. And tomorrow's activity looks spotty. I have a sinking feeling that we're not going to see anything here, but I hope I'm wrong. To me Sunday's threat looks better than today and tomorrow.

86/74 feeling like 94

No severe here, but we did get torrential rain. I got a very quick 1.25". At its peak it was close to 4"/hr, the heaviest rain I've seen in a while.

93.6/103 would love for a storm today but know it won’t happen. Missed again yesterday. Storms north and cell popped south too late. Barely any rain

Oh my god, I haven't been blue light social media over stimulated in 3 hours, there must be a dystopian wave of horror folding over the horizon

I will say, we are due for a break, so I would not at all be shocked if this one turned out okay...like 1982. Cold, no (at least not sustained)...but some good storms, yes.

The only super El Nino that was decent here is 1982.

OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!

Possible just SW of NYC. Looks like a good south Jersey severe alley day. .

The HRRR which had looked impressive for tomorrow afternoon no longer does with the 12z run - unless you are south of DC.

Talk of sustained 90/75 this early on is setting yourself up for failure. I expect we all be cooking by late June

time 2 torch

Probably why the 30% wind was added.

Big news in the ENSO monitoring/ranking world: ECMWF yesterday finally followed NOAA’s lead and implemented its own version of a relative Nino 3.4 index! Although the general idea is the same, it is its own unique relative index and thus is calculated somewhat differently. Also, they use different databases to determine SSTs. Here’s ECMWF’s own graph showing both the traditional and the new relative Nino 3.4 SST anomalies going back to 1982: Note the following based on this ECMWF graph: -Most recently relative was ~0.5 cooler, similar to NOAA -It has 2023-4 ~same as NOAA with ~+1.5/+2 (relative ~0.5 cooler) -Like for NOAA, relative has been cooler since ~2014. -Similar to NOAA, the relationship was much more variable prior to 2014 including: -only small differences between relative/non-relative for 1997-8 just like for NOAA -relative being a large ~0.6C warmer in 1991-2 just like NOAA -relative being ~0.35 warmer in 1982-3 similar to NOAA’s ~0.3 warmer and warmest on record like for NOAA -But, ECMWF has bigger variations/extremes than NOAA for both El Niño and La Niña: -The ECMWF’s strongest La Niña since 1982 is just as for NOAA 1988-9, but it’s way down at -2.5 (for both) vs only -1.9 for NOAA (for both) -The ECMWF’s strongest El Niño is 1982-3 for both measures and is significantly stronger than NOAA with +3.1 relative/+2.75 non-relative vs NOAA’s +2.5/+2.2. This probably should be kept in mind when looking at the Euro’s ENSO progs vs history —————————————————— Measuring the strength of El Niño – introducing Relative Niño indices 10 June 2026 However, as the climate warms, interpreting these anomalies becomes more challenging. Rising background temperatures can make recent El Niño events appear stronger, and La Niña events weaker. To address this, with the support of the WMO, ECMWF is introducing an additional measure of El Niño strength, alongside the more traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomalies, in its seasonal forecast from 1 June 2026: the Relative Niño indices. These indices compare the Niño 3.4 region with the rest of the tropics at the same time, offering a perspective that is less sensitive to long-term warming. This will provide an additional tool for describing the likely strength of an upcoming El Niño event. Even with this adjustment, current forecasts suggest that El Niño may be unusually strong later in the year. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/science-blog/2026/measuring-strength-el-nino @40/70 Benchmark@LakePaste25@bluewave@snowman19@donsutherland1among others

Months and months of torch talk from the usual suspects builds the zeitgeist of the board, so we are conditioned to have unrealistic expectations. throw in some Greta, and boom

Mesoscale Discussion 1086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 111453Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois. DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind gusts continues to quickly move across eastern IA. Two main surges are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring. It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL. However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to gradually return northward across IL and vicinity. Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable later in the day as the air mass become more volatile. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LWX did mention this too in their AFD On the mesoscale, will have to monitor the evolution of an MCV associated with severe early morning storms over IL/IN as it moves east toward the region late this afternoon, and how that interacts with the above mentioned lifting mechanisms (not to mention any residual outflow from the early morning PA MCS). It is plausible that these features enhance convective development by resulting in slightly higher forcing and perhaps some subtly enhanced mid-level flow. This would result in more widespread storms and an uptick in damaging wind potential locally.

That's funny you wrote this... I was wondering how being +2 to +5 for 10 days isn't sustaining? I guess the subjective side of that needs to be brown out 100s for 10 straight days and with Locus swarms, brimstone and and booming voice from the heavens that says, "I don't like you!" lol