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bizarre .. the operational version too. Chaotic hodgepodge of perforation in anything that resembles a ridge. Seems the only thing coherent in these runs lately is the polar jet and above. seems like there will be holes punched in the heights S of the polar branch, but at this range ... not correct on where those are. That run from 00z happened to time/place one where a book-end TC happened to be getting going ... Goes on to being a nice example of spontaneous emergence from model generated noise.

October wasn’t expected to be that wet. The above normals start Nov and especially Dec

Picked up another .11 this morning. .36 storm total. Watching the developing pattern around day 9-10...

The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell). Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it, too.

Euro AI misses next week aside for gusty winds on coast but then tries again at the end of its run.

Take a look at the AI Euro, backs it into the coast and gets rain to us by Wed night-Thusday of next week.

All you gotta do is look at last years…abysmal performance by them.

Another one for the fakers

Looks perfectly seasonable to me for the metro. Mid to upper 60's most days (maybe some 70's in there) with lows in the 40's. Can't get much better for October.

The minimum is probably a line of heavy showers with gusts to 30-40 or so. The higher end is widespread gusts to 50 and some localized 60, with maybe a brief spinup or two. Probably at least a few scattered lightning strikes if we can get some heating.

My stance has and still is: -whereas CC/AGW has its clearly detrimental effects and thus I’m not happy about it (plus I selfishly prefer cold over warmth way down here in the deep SE), its effects aren’t all bad and are naturally largely being ignored by the extreme doomsayers. I‘m referring mainly to the increased greening of the globe that has occurred due to increased CO2 and also the reduced number of deaths from cold, which has killed many more than heat per organizations that compile the stats even though the balance could change if it gets hot enough, of course -there very could be some negative feedback loops that aren’t being modeled well as regards how much warmer it will ultimately get, which if true would mean that the worst case scenarios aren’t realistic

That’s at 6z too. Sunday morning is light winds.

..Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface. Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.

Way too cold here

Big change with the afternoon update

30% wind added for NE MD into SE NY on 1730z SPC OTLK

It's that time of year!

No disagreement. We are definitely in an unprecedented period of hurricanes somehow missing the northeast. Though if you look at the frequency of majors it’s not that far off. Going back using sediment data to around 1000 the reoccurrence rate is about 100 years. So Carol 54 technically being the last, we are due. .

That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.

Fake cold always over achieves. Real cold always under-achieves

The AMO cycles 25-45 years based on the Atlantic HU activity going back to the late 19th century. We are in year 32 of the active phase, so it could end any year now. Regarding E Coast landfalls, it depends on how you look at it. If you go by major HU E Coast landfalls, events are *way* down in the last 60 years compared to the previous 60 years. See graphic attached. There has not been a major HU landfall GA to ME since Fran in 1996. And for the entire E Coast, not since Jeanne in 2004. And I would argue this is the most important stat when considering changes/trends over time b/c major HUs do a disproportional amount of impact/damage. And I know one can say, "well, what about Gulf landfalls?" That is valid statement, as those show a different trend. However, what I find far too often is that facts/data are cherry-picked, and the omission of key facts/data is really no different that lying. The point is that one needs to include all valid/relevant data when making claims for changes/trends and look over long periods of time, not hyper-focus in short-term snapshots and run w/ that as if that how it is going to be proves one point. Unfortunately, the MSM and too many on social media largely ignore this and run w/ whatever gets eyeballs/clicks/likes best, and that is gloom and doom and the end is nigh. There is a saying here, "never let the facts get in the way of a good story." For any HU landfall for a E Coast location, New England has not have one since 1991, its longest or 2nd longest gap period on record (depending on landfall definition). So it is not just anecdotal that things are not as frequent of bad for the E Coast. Actual hard data support it.