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Same over here in Rangeley. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Freezing at soccer. Too early for this. Luckily we have 70 into November.

52 here

Yes, still warmer than the Euro for the DJF period averaged out. Each of the winter months in 1997-1998 were very warm. The warmth in December 1997 was focused in the Upper Plains and progressed eastward in January and February. We haven’t had MC forcing going back to the spring and have had no shortage of record warmth across the CONUS. Also remember 1997-1998 super El Niño had no MC forcing and was one of the warmest winters up until that time. So the moral of the story is that nearly anywhere that +30 C warm pool forcing sets up in the tropics is going to produce intervals of record warmth. What you don’t realize is that stations in the CONUS have had 17 DJF months across most winters since the temperature baseline jump in December 2015 exceeding +10 in spots. I am also sure you probably aren’t aware that none of the seasonal models successfully forecast any of these 17 DJF records for the given locations before the month in question began from 1 month or more ahead of when the months began. The Euro forecasts issued on the 5th of each of those months were sometimes even too cool for where the warmest conditions were located. Especially when the warmth was focused from the mid to later portions of those months. It generally did better when the warmth began early in the month and persisted. Heck, you would be hard-pressed to find many model forecasts that showed those areas even +5 or warmer. These record +10 months have occurred under a wide variety of ENSO conditions. While seasonal forecasts can sometimes successfully show the locations of the warmth, they always miss the magnitude of the warmth. Remember our last much weaker super El Niño in 2023-2024 produced a +10 winter averaged out over 3 months in the Upper Midwest. The Euro forecast that region to be near average so it was 10° too cool. So it’s not being controversial or edgy to state that there will probably be multiple +10 months from December to March this winter that none of the seasonal models are indicating right now. The models like the Euro forecast in °C so we have to convert. The warmest it has for this winter near the Northern Tier is +2C or greater. This translates to +3.6° F or warmer. I will take the over on that where it’s currently placing the warmest potential.

Damn. That's quite a bit higher than any of the local mesonet stations.

Refreshingly cool this morning. Lots of freeze warnings up for N/W areas.

Woke up to some light snow but not sticking

Enjoy the only flakes for weeks

0.83" and still raining. Quite a bit more than forecast. Was hoping it would dry out early today but that's not happening.

Brisk 49F in Hotlanta this AM. Was upper 80s to near 90 yersterday. Winds ripped overnight as cold front pushed through.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 107 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-172000- /O.UPG.KCTP.FZ.A.0007.261018T0500Z-261018T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0011.261018T0500Z-261018T1300Z/ Warren-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata- Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Wellsboro, Clearfield, Huntingdon, Lock Haven, Bedford, DuBois, Mifflintown, Mansfield, Somerset, McConnellsburg, Lewisburg, Bloomsburg, Mount Union, Renovo, Sunbury, Laporte, York, Ridgway, Gettysburg, Harrisburg, St. Marys, Berwick, Chambersburg, Philipsburg, Coudersport, Altoona, Hershey, Lancaster, Johnstown, Lewistown, Williamsport, Lebanon, Pottsville, Trout Run, Carlisle, Newport, State College, Shamokin, Danville, Emporium, Warren, and Selinsgrove 107 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures between 25 and 30 expected. * WHERE...Most of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Valley locations and sheltered rural areas will experience the coldest temperatures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the cold. && $$ Steinbugl

GFS (and euro) forecasting a spike in global temperatures this week. Could approach the previous daily record set in Nov 2023.

Yeah, moderate rain down in lower southern MD and radar looks like it lasts a while. Might be anafrontal rain? We are at about 1.1 so far.

1.20"

Well this mornings weather is quite the change from the last few days…

Another 0.2” today. Well over 3” for October. Too bad the rainy pattern doesn’t ever arrive

You’d hear my scream from your house if that happens

Different subject but Albert annoyed the hell out of me because he always said “thundershowers” in his forecasts instead of “thunderstorms” And to this day you never see or hear anyone using that

Temp down to 39 degrees.

Measurable snow has arrived in the high peaks. 32/30 at SLK with .75 viz 32.9/31 at WXW1-SN

It's really coming down here east of DC. Much heavier rain then I expected. Radar also looks pretty impressive.

Acclimating to the cold