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Probably the best way to check this out is when the MJO is into P5 in which its in P6 right now but the OLR is into what the paper says by the looks with typhoon Koto right now

I hope the GFS has the right idea. Great run for the north, would be a great start for ski resorts.

I think we can make the argument that the GFS model is probably a bit too amplified with this system. That being said, I think if you want to have any shot at snow or an all snow event, you would definitely have to be further inland with this one. I’m skeptical of this storm even starting out with any snow down towards I 95 and closer to the coast because the high pressure is moving out of the way pretty quickly, and there is nothing to prevent the storm from becoming amplified enough where the warm air overpowers most of the region except for those further inland

GFS looks great. Let's lock it

With those ratios it wouldn't take much. Quick couple of inches of fluf to whiten things up

Not buying it.

GFS is heavy rain pretty far into the interior on its 0z run.

Gfs is still really amped, but might be slightly toned down from 18z. At least the backside flip is prominent

Way north. Low plows into SE mass.

GFS nukes up here though.

just covering for ineedicon. He seems to be missing when a model trends this direction. I’m sure it’s just coincidence.

GFS...............

Its over, Next.

I don’t think snow is in the cards for many of us anywhere near I-95, along I-95, or east of it. You would need high pressure to be anchored to funnel cold down into an amplifying storm, and climatology isn’t in our favor this early in the season anyway. For I-84 and north, I’d say it’s definitely likely they’ll get some snow out of it. But south of there is quite difficult this early in the season, especially without much cold air to work with

Bengals can make this a blowout real quick. I think they will.

I remember Robert's obvs posts during the 2009 snowstorm that broke a pine tree and damaged his house. He was truly one of the best. I also won't forget those late nights with Burgertime..... he still posts from time to time.

It’s AIFS Ens or bust at this point. Fun early season exercise at the least. Hope we get to try again sooner rather then later

ICON less amped/south

Just comical.

Not at all. Less confluence and higher heights. This one is slipping away

Doesn't mean much, but seems like next week's storm has continued to trend north. Looks like better spacing with this weekends storm. Doesn't look particularly strong tho but something to watch.

00z vs 18z below

Real Weenie Time

I think 8-10” is fair forecast. Thinking 16 hours + of snow. Averaging 1/2” per hour ish. Wherever this enhanced H5 band of UVV's lands will definitely have some higher rates/bigger flakes, liking I-88 to I-90 corridor (for now). Wouldn't rule out some stray TSSN in this weenie band.