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0z EC: can see the worse outcome well before... 0z Sunday the PV center ticked slightly east over Lake Huron instead of Lake Michigan... that slight tick is enough to smush heights downstream and keep the trough more positive... Models are vacillating between SNE graze vs. 1-3/2-5... (and though hard to explain, it does strangely seem to correlate with 6z/18z vs. 0z/12z). Probably won't lock in for another 24 hours or so. I'm still favoring at least advisory in southeast areas.

Looks like some decent snow showers moving across SE Kentucky, as with every single event in December, I'm likely too far west unless radar just isn't picking up anything NW of me, but basically SE Kentucky, Claiborne and points East may be in good shape if the Cumberlands don't dry those out.

Euro making friends

I'm glad I stayed up. IMO excellent 0z suite. CMC and Euro trended south and GFS trended north. Euro AI also higher totals for everybody except @TSSN+.

Damn, that’s perfect. Please stay right there.

Pretty much, yeah. I just looked up snowfall in the whole region from 2017-2018 until this past winter - and Baltimore is, as far as I can tell, basically the only place in the Mid Atlantic to have 0 years where we didn't have at least 100% of average annual snowfall. I won't derail this thread by posting a bunch of maps, but maybe tomorrow I'll post them in banter.

Euro is money DC-Balt. 3-4”

0z Euro follows suit with the CMC by going more south; I think DC/Balt would like it. Also has more QPF

it's way out there, so the timing is probably off, but it's probably gonna happen. Big changes. That doesn't necessarily mean "torch", as Dendrite and others pointed out the past few days. The big relaxation signal is not going away just yet. Also, not a bad thing if you're in the mood to roll the dice/shake it up (Sorry NNE? or not )

Euro cut back even down here. Looking like 1-3 here .

You guys must be close. How much would you charge?.

Talk about weird shit…that isn’t happening.

That’s what RavensRule said

I would prostitute my mother on the nearest street corner for 3.5 inches of snow. That's like...2 inches short of our biggest snowstorm IMBY in years, lol.

Since we cooled down late August/Sept, it's been more of a -AO pattern. I think it's solar, and therefore the connection is on both sides of the globe. The Southern Hemisphere has had a nice -AAO period since September: Going into next year - that rolls forward to a -NAO, tripole pattern the following March to June (map default is positive so it's opposite correlation v )

holding strong on the long range gfs is the mother of cutters

yeah h5 looked more disjointed last night at this time, at least the eventual evolution. 0z yesterday an initial s/w went through and started to dig, and took the second piece of energy along with it. gfs doing it's weird shit

lol

Did yo mama slap you that hard as a child and rename you negative nelly? It's almost impossible for you to pick up on anything good.

But that model is trash…no matter what.

The GFS just improved.

Just like clockwork. Perpetual snow for 3+ months. Love how these people just take it in stride. They just drive in it and scrape the roads after each event. No chemicals put on the roads to ruin their vehicles.

the type of shit @SnowenOutThere feels when he creates the thread and gets the jack zone while the northern crew gets nothing:

Snowin Out There, no need to worry. You got this BIG-TIME! Your posts about developing upper air dynamics are so well done you need RED TAGGED already! NWS mets better start takin notes from you!

0.3” final call.