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  2. SnowDawg
    Yep depth of the cold is the key here. There will no doubt be a warm nose, but experience says the heart of the wedge will almost always verify with more SN/IP. Alluding to that, one thing that stuck out to me on that Euro was the wedge signature starting to show up even at 850mbar. That is deep cold. As a result the sn/ip line held south for longer than earlier runs despite being more amped. Not to mention the potential for dynamic cooling fighting against the warm nose with such high rates possible.
  3. Weather Will
    WB 0Z ensembles: GFS, Can., EURO AI, and EPS
  4. zbrown89 started following 1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread and January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm
  5. chris624wx
    Yeah, hoping for sleet for y'all if it isn't going to be snow!
  6. John1122
    Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.
  7. Scottie16
    .
  8. JoshM
    Dec. 2002 was like that here. We got the parfait... Snow, then sleet, then the 0.75" of ZR.
  9. HWY316wx
    Yep. We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big. I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point. I don't want any part of that mess.
  10. Scottie16
    Euro just absorbs the Baja. Weird to see that big of a jump. .
  11. chris624wx
    Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove!
  12. Rjay
  13. John1122
    Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange.
  14. andyhb
    I'm telling you all what you don't want with this storm, and it's this centered over the Atlanta metro via the 00z Euro. Do not be in the ZR swath with this thing.
  15. WinterWolf
    That Euro run is a full day or two later.
  16. stormtracker
    Yeah. And realizing that the Euro is a long duration thing. Euro tends to (over) do that a lot.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48. 2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did
  18. WxWatcher007
  19. SACRUS
    Euro total QPF long duration into Tue
  20. andyhb
    That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.
  21. HWY316wx
    For GA folks, this starts on the EURO about 7AM Saturday morning and doesn't stop freezing rain / sleet until Sunday at midnight. Dare I say this will be the ice storm of the century as modeled? That just seems insane to type. I hope it's a raging sleet storm otherwise, we are in deep poo.
  22. JoshM
    This is a 30+ hour event on the euro as well.
  23. LVblizzard
    That is a ridiculous amount of sleet for VA. Shoveling 1 inch is bad enough…7 inches would be torturous.
  24. chris624wx
    00Z Euro still good except it really gets mixing and change over to rain into NE NC/SE VA at the end of the event.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Big cold still shows up Saturday and Sunday. A little more muted further north.
  26. Hurricaneguy
    Being in Greeneville and seeing that new Euro run. Here we go with the warm nose. It’s impossible for it not to happen in the last 8 years or so
  27. WinterWolf
    Don, what’s it phase with? The energy over the upper Midwest? Does it eject the Baja low into the set up?
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