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https://x.com/weatherchannel/status/1993657240813777293?s=61 RIP….no pun intended

GFS continues to improve. I think many of us would take this in a heartbeat

I'm just happy we have something to track so early in the season.

still a long way to go fortunately. Hoping for snow next week

Delicate balance with amplification and placement of the low pressure off the coast with the GFS progression at 500. Would not worry too much into the details as of now, we just need the energy spacing to be close to where it is. GFS already doing it's classic energy getting sheared and held out for longer in the SW US though that we saw in the 120-180 hour range all too often last year.

Eh, as long is it snows where we live, amirite?!? .

Climo is certainly going to come into play early on for areas.

Thank you! Might not beat his but im probably a close 2nd, especially after doing this. I saw a lot of your reports going back decades in all the PNS' i've been going through over the summer/fall Thanks appreciate it you can always tag me

This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting....

12Z GFS is rain for NYC verbatim.

12z pretty much storm total precip vs. 06z

Yeah, it's not as good. Real issue is we just don't get the rates we need to force a flip with marginal temperatures. Need a stronger and sharper vort and we don't get it this run.

Agreed. A little snowier for the Sunday one and less snowy for the mid-week threat, but hard to complain for early December.

Looks like it's on the borderline for parts of the area. My current forecast is rain and 34.

H5 not as impressive as 6z little messier storm, but it’s still there at least.

The GFS keeps taking a favorable path but it's too warm for those of us in the East, freezing rain to snow mess for the western areas though.

Nice trends continue on nooner GFS. Still plenty of sorting out, but the look is not hard to stare at for this early in the season.

Looks OK for a thump out this way. Sleety after that.

Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well?

My benchmark is 1" - 3" that doesn't get washed away. Would get us to December climo.

Vort not quite as consolidated. Might stay icier. Shark privileges revoked

Going to be a long winter with the GFS it seems.

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to have something similar. The 0z CMC wasn't bad either.