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PTC 5 initial advisory coming at 11am.

and alot of model busting on placement of rains etc

looks like Southern CA could get a hurricane.. GFS has been leading on that one.. Euro also trending that way now

we are lucky that Springfield has a petroleum pipeline and terminals to help keep our prices lower than other areas in New England

this winter could suck.. or we could get lucky and with added moisture get some big storms

Chevon's share price up 2+% on the day, will be interesting to see who was buying shares of the majors before this latest Congressionally unauthorized military attack in the Middle East grifters gonna grift

cold enough where it wont be shitty to go outside

Yeah the other day we were at $4.29-4:39 but we also seem to have a bit of a tourist markup between Waterbury I-89 and Stowe.

This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

Here's a not-so-novel aspect about ice vs water: when water freezes its volume necessarily expands by 12% to make room for the H20 molecules arranging geometrically into their crystalline position/lattice. That lattice then requires more space in order to achieve this hexagonal configuration among the handshaking molecules. etc... What may or may not be more novel is the application of this basic principle as partial triggering mechanism. If the combination of CC and summer sun have been periodically thawing and refreezing the glacial mass over and over again (decadal), the interstitial integrity of glacial body may have cracked. Fracturing over recent years. Basically we're just describing the glacial destabilization near it's front edge and the pooling of near freezing water and seepage that goes on with the retreating. It's a complex system, but at the end of the day, epistemic awareness ... We can either spend 20 years formulating a high degree confidence polynomial mathematical expression that describes a system to within 99% certainty, proving what we already know, or, we just have to accept that expanding and contracting the ice through these processes will weaken it over time. This both increases calving events, in turn increasing the probability for this to have occurred. Increasing glacial melt --> filling glacial lakes and kettle geological features --> upstream calving then careens forth and there we go

That is some environment that will be evolving just west of CT tomorrow afternoon and probably into western CT late afternoon/early evening. Guidance isn't showing a ton developing, forcing isn't particularly strong and looking at several soundings, the LFC is quite a bit higher than the LCL. With this said, that promotes an environment for discrete storms and any storms that fire in the afternoon could be particularly nasty. Probably not strong enough llvl shear for a strong tornado but not out of the question should a supercell become mature enough, especially when considering potential for boundary interactions

Yes. Your area, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, etc., will see excessive heat. Try to stay cool.

Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month

Thanks. Please elaborate. I’m not sure I’m following what you’re asking.

Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low

Keep this talk up and we’re going to change Clinton, MA to LockHerUp, MA.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Is it accelerating because of GW, or is it that since it is smaller ice absorbs heat more quickly then when it was larger? I always wondered that.

Hard to tell. The core of the coldest seemed to be in the rad spots of C NH. The SLK COOP was 34°…MSS 35° Not sure what the cloud cover or wind was in upstate NY, but the N NH COOP sites were mostly 32-35°

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN.

That's relief compared to what I've been paying. Gas was $4.89 at peak in SLK this summer and I paid $4.59 there yesterday. Brutal, brutal stuff.

Thanks, Charlie, for posing that. None of what you posted from that article surprises me. I’m not at all expecting to take JB’s side, especially because he’s a proud denier of AGW being a significant factor in GW. But what do you know about his statement that Nepal hasn’t warmed in 400 years? Did he just make this up? From where would he have gotten accurate data so far back? Also, does that map of his that I reposted supposedly showing a somewhat cooler than normal summer along the Nepal-Tibet border have any significance even if accurate? I noticed it has no legend and no reference like the base period and the period these blue colors are representing. He’s saying this is the “wrong summer” to claim a disaster was based on GW. But even if it truly was cooler than normal this summer there, would that even matter being that melting supposedly would have already been put in motion due to supposedly prior warmer than normal periods?

One gas station up the road went from $3.66 to $3.99 in a few days...if even a few days

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize: (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost) The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east. Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58. By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10. Parameter Latest 2026 Reading Period What It Shows Niño 3.4 +1.73°C July 2026 Strong central/east-central El Niño Niño 3 +2.30°C July 2026 Very strong east-central warming Niño 1+2 +2.91°C July 2026 Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming Niño 4 +1.42°C July 2026 Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern ONI +1.40°C June 2026 El Niño established on 3-month basis RONI +1.34°C July 2026 Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal MEI.v2 +2.41 July 2026 Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal SOI -4.00 July 2026 Very strong atmospheric El Niño response OLR -1.20 July 2026 Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection Heat Content +2.48 July 2026 Strong subsurface warm support 200mb Zonal Winds -6.79 July 2026 Upper-level easterly anomaly support 20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W +56.28 m July 2026 Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline Overall Rank Analog Match Level Main Reason 1 1997–98 Best overall Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory 2 2015–16 Very high Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support 3 1982–83 High Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-high Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage 6 1965–66 Moderate-high Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog 7 1957–58 Moderate-high Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog 8 1991–92 Moderate Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure 9 2002–03 Moderate More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match 10 2009–10 Lower-moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.