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12Z models are all over the place with the exact tracks and timing and when and where the most intense part of the system is possibly going to make a left turn into the coast - many more questions than answers for any particular area of the region as of this afternoon. All that is certain is there is going to be flooding and high winds up and down the coast - rainfall amounts are the biggest question mark - along with the highest wind locations several miles inland especially.

RIP, he would have been all over this one. Can throw Messinger into that one, too.

I’m not a hype person, but looking at vis. sat, you can see the cold air eating away around SC/ NC

it is all cancelled

Respectfully disagree. This is a warm seclusion. There’s no latent heat release. Furthermore the storm dissipates as it becomes vertically stacked on Sunday night. It might have some tropical characteristics but it won’t behave like a tropical cyclone should.

No. This isn’t tropical or subtropical currently.

If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis

Lakehouse? Great restaurant

Zero mention by NHC, not even an yellow so I assume they disagree?

Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.

How many named naked swirls have we seen over the years? In the eyes of those who know better, should this count?

lol already got branches down in my neighborhood. Canceled a reservation for our 20th anniversary dinner in Bay Shore that was supposed to be at 8pm tomorrow because that area floods rather easily, forget in a storm like this. Lol it’s always friggin something ugh.

I wouldn’t wanna be flying in this wind i dont mind flying but hate turbulence lol

this next Wed - Sat looking increasingly WAR -like in the GFS's recent guidance... 00z, 06z and 12z runs GGEM's sort of coming around. Euro thinks ala carte mid November

You will see delays for sure. They are so busy that even a run of the mill storm causes delays

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Jesus. A hybrid storm taking the same path Sandy took. More rain, much smaller wind field.

Was gusting around forty here earlier, a friend of mine told me there was a wire down on wellwood ave in Lindenhurst already

mm/hr

This is the track that'll yield the worst winds and coastal flooding. The models that have it go over the NY harbor or so are less extreme (this is obviously especially true for the central NJ coastline.

long range meso HRRR and NAMs did

What about airport service on Sun/Mon at the 3 major NYC area airports? How did past comparable storms affect service?

James? James, is that you?

Given how close to the coast it is modeled to get, I think so eventually—whether initially along the NJ coast or when it’s weaker and moving NE over part of New England.

You mean issuing evacuations? There's not enough time. Absolutely NO model had this slamming into central NJ 48 hours ago. Not even the EURO or EURO AI.