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Thanks. We do have the net metering which will be nice. Also the tax credit for putting on my new roof this year will be big

Do we know why that is?

The hurricane models often overdo intensity by a lot, regardless.

The late summer tick hiatus came to light in 2019 when Maine Public Lands annual 2-day "peer review" field trip was set in southern Maine, including Swan Island with its overpopulation of deer. Nearly 40 attended the mid-August excursion and not a single tick was reported. That 7/15-9/10 period has remained tick-free, and this year it was 6/20-9/20. May that period be extended.

Final ENSO update prior to go-time second week of Novie. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/10/official-la-nina-now-appears-likely-for.html

20-30 mph w/G40, Pretty mundane stuff, Just like the fact of seeing coastals appear heading into novie.

Looks like no for NY, that stinks. I've had panels for 9 years since I moved into my house if you have any questions. I'm sure you studied up though. A current market: New York does not have an active SREC market for solar owners to sell certificates to utilities to meet state-mandated solar requirements.

Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity

Didn’t the 2023 warming come in way too early to be attributed to the 2023-4 El Niño? I distinctly recall the discussions here and elsewhere about that because it started in spring (as early as March) and also the possibility that Hunga Tonga was the main factor due to the enormous amount of water vapor sent up into the stratosphere. All of this remains mysterious to me.

I have no idea lol. I guess I’ll find out.

Frosty 34F at MSP. Coldest low of the season at the airport. Car thermometer read 31F at the office this morning.

Last update from me prior to go-time. Confidence is high. Official La Niña Now Appears Likely for Winter '25-26' Subsurface Yields Invaluable Clues October IRI Update There have been no major changes to the October suite of the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO guidance. In fact, the consensus seems to be coming into exceptionally good agreement, as the dynamical guidance has warmed ever so slightly, and the statistical guidance cooled with both settling in around a peak of about -0.6C. While intensity guidance has remained rather consistent, there have been a couple notable changes both with respect to the surface and the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific. Recent ENSO Developments During the month of September, Eastern Mass Weather anticipated that another round of trades near the close of the month and into the month of October would trigger significant cooling over the eastern half of the ENSO regions. This is indeed evident in the recent data. 1.2 3 3.4 4 17SEP2025 -0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 24SEP2025 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 01OCT2025 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 08OCT2025 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 15OCT2025 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 Note the drop from 0.0 in region 1.2 on September 17, to -0.4 as of October 15th, which has reenforced the east-based configuration. This cooling will slow or even halt over the next week, before resuming near the end of the month and culminating in a likely peak of the weeklies during the month of November. What is also evident is not only the lack of cooling in the western flank of region 4, but in fact slight warming, from -0.3 to -0.2. This is the result of the second noteworthy trend in that a considerable subsurface warm pool has been working into the western half of region 3.4 to the west of 150W. The ramifications of this are twofold; firstly, it is now a virtual certainty that this event will indeed remain eastern biased, which has been the supposition all summer and into the fall. The primary El Niño Modoki analogs have and will remain 1995, 2017 and 2021. In fact, the subsurface bias to the east in 2025 is even more drastic than it was in all 3 primary EMI analog years. The second implication of this is that there is a limit to just how potent La Niña can grow given that the end is in sight, but perhaps not as restrictive as one may perceive. Western Subsurface Warmth is Telling The logical assumption is that the encroachment of the subsurface warm pool into the western flank of the developing La Niña will limit it's additional growth, thus confirming the climatology based assertion made by Eastern Mass Weather in July, that this event would not achieve official La Niña status as designated by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). However, when considering the degree of cooling that has already occurred over region 3.4 in conjunction with two notable past instances of developing western subsurface warmth, it is now clear that this is a position worth reconsidering. There are two evident analogs when considering this development and they are the years 1967 and 2008, respectively, the latter of which also represented a very good analog for the late development of cool ENSO event that occurred last season. The similarities in the subsurface are clear: The July-August-September 90 day SOI are as follows, from most favorable to least favorable for development of La Niña: 2008: 23.92 2025: 8.64 1967: 5.8 The trade winds were as one would expect given the respective 90 day SOI values, as 2008 features the strongest trades and 1967 the weakest by far. When considering all of the above data, 2008 was best poised for further cooling of La Nina and 1967, which failed to be officially designated, the least. Thus given that the ONI in 2008 dropped another 0.6 from the JAS value of -0.2, and 1967 another 0.5 from the JAS value of -0.2, it is prudent to anticipate a peak in 2025 in the -0.7 to -0.9 range when considering the current JAS value of -0.3, despite the considerable incursion of subsurface warmth lurking to the west. This update to the anticipated peak ONI range of -0.7 to -0.9 is crucial because since 1950, the only event to reach an ONI value of -0.7 and not go on to be officially designated a La Niña is......1967, which as previously illustrated, occurred during a season in which the hemisphere was not as conducive to it's development as it is in 2025. Applying the expected rate of growth of the current JAS RONI value of -0.63 yields a peak value in the -1 to -1.2 range, thus it appears that the recent La Niña Advisory issued by the CPC on October 9th was indeed warranted and the advancement of subsurface warmth if not necessarily prohibitive. It is also important to remain mindful that an even more pronounced expansion of subsurface warmth took place over the summer, when the vast majority of the ENSO subsurface had warmed considerably only to recover in August. Furthermore, although the event is expected to evolve into an east-based fashion, the latest Jamstec guidance does imply a brief pullback into a more central-based, or basin-wide configuration given the forecast brief spike in the EMI value during the month of November. This is feasible given the anticipated lull in the cooling over the eastern region owed to the brief relaxation of the trades during the coming week, in conjunction with a potential reemergence of a cool eddy in the subsurface of region 4 amid the continued presence of ample trades. While it is unlikely that the developing warm pool over the western half of ENSO will recede as much as did during the month of August, it does in fact serve as a reminder of the capricious nature of the subsurface. Winter Outlook 2025-2026 will be the next publication during the second week of November-

Do you get to report your monthly output for SREC $? My SREC $ runs out in 2.5 years, but was able to get them for 15 years. Depending on the value, I typically get back around $4k per year besides not paying a bill. I think that has changed a bit since 2013 though. Also, get a squirrel guard if you haven't already done so! I see NJ now has this. I guess I was in the old program because I get around $180 per SREC. SREC-II is the current program: New Jersey's SREC-II program offers a fixed incentive of $85 per SREC for 15 years.

Yeah Tame in Tolland.

Unlikely it gets closer than Andros Island in the Bahamas. Only way I could see Melissa getting really close to FL is if the day 7 trough/cutoff low misses it and it lingers somewhere from Cuba south into the NW Caribbean, *or* if it dives WSW and gets so far south (e.g. near Nicaragua/Honduras border) that by the time that trough picks it up it ends up near FL while turning NE. Both are highly unlikely in my view, but the past few KMA runs (not a reliable model) have shown something like one of these two scenarios.

There would be much excitement if this were another 4-6 weeks out.

if I lived inland I would definitely be bored by most nor'easters. Unless it was anomalous in some capacity

Having my solar panels installed today. Snuck them on before the tax credits expire. Hoping for lots of sun going forward…

I'll ask mother nature if she can unleash the winds of death right over your neighborhood. Flatline every tree and wire all around you.

Nor’easters always come with some wind, just not the blow downs that are called for. As it draws closer, you’ll start pumping the wind.

What wind

Its October Enjoy the rain and wind

Just a little below average for this time of year since the Northern Hemisphere is so warm.

You wouldn’t be saying that a month from now…