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29.7 this morning. Coldest yet for this fall season. Don't know how much longer I can hold out on this "No heat on till November" thing. 60 in the house this morning.

Pretty strong signal for a little cooler than average trough in the Northeast into early November.

@40/70 Benchmark The SOI is soaring again…almost +25. I like your new ENSO disco, I really think we see some Niña strengthening in both the subsurface and surface next month

39 degrees this morning. Felt way colder and much more humid feeling though. Loving this weather!

33F for the low, change the clocks next weekend, jeez !

Anyone else worried that NWS is relying on Google’s DeepMind model too much.

Good Saturday morning all. Beneficial rain is coming 10/29-31, along w a short period of wind gusts on the coast near 50 with associated spotty power outages, and then behind the the system widespread gusts 40 MPH around 10/31 or 11/1. Rainfall still uncertain but certainly more than 1/2" and a couple climate sites may exceed normal monthly totals with potential for near 3". Target for the heaviest rain uncertain but modeling is coming into more agreement. One thing to note... yesterdays 18z GFS had nil but its ensembles about 1" in NYC. Also, fwiw, the ensembles have so much spread that they are comparatively timid in comparison to the OPS rain and wind production. Despite tides astronomically modest, I think there could be a period of minor tidal flooding. Right now not quite as fierce as the prior (10/12-13) thread, so no new event thread, as yet.

35 in the lowlands. Coldest yet this season.

Can’t really lean on any AI data unless you know the integrity of the data used to train the AI.

36F at 6:40am which will probably be the low. Overnight lows slowly but surely getting close to freezing....

Added CPC's Oct 16 outlook.

WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z...lets see if it holds.

The last time a Greenland Block worked in our favor with a KU here along the 1-95 corridor was February 2021. The MJO 8 in January 2022 was more of a Pacific driven snowfall pattern. Most other Greenland blocks like December 2022, March 2023, and February 2025 were Southeast ridge link ups with Great Lakes cutters or I-78 to I-84 hugger tracks. Prior to 2019 there Southeast ridge link ups with Greenland blocks were rare. Like in December 2012 and the late 1990s. But those were usually followed up by more favorable Greenland blocking patterns and KU snowstorms in the next months or years which hasn’t happened yet.

BWI 37 at 0600.

DCA hit 39 at 0545. Coldest since April.

Props to the gfs

LWX reported Dulles hit 32 at 0430. Now down to 30.

Down to 31F here in the Quinebaug Valley

31 this morning last mow day today. Wish me luck

We're getting a lot of steady light to moderate rain over hours. This is the best because it soaks in does not run off.

HAFS still get this to 140kt+ at 00z so I would look at the Euro with some skepticism tonight. It’s all about the track though.

Impressive presentation over the past few hours.

If this is realistic, it could mean that the W 1/2 of Jamaica is saved from as devastating a blow as earlier feared although there’d still be extremely heavy rainfall especially in SE Jamaica along with the devastating consequences of that in that portion of the island.

The favorable conditions really collapse on tonight's Euro once Melissa gets to Jamaica.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SUGGEST MELISSA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 74.9W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES