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That said the lightning detection systems are plenty adequate enough to know that there's very little if any lightning occurring.

6Z GFS still insisting on the 80s "Rain changing to snow before ending" this afternoon, and even looks to have a little Norlun weenie over Mnt.Tolland Also still has a decent signal for the 23rd, but I'd feel better if it would trend a little south

Very little lightning downstream over the last twenty four hours. However, just because lightning is not detected does not mean it's not occurring. Parts of pennsylvania and the ohio valley do not have the best lightning detection systems.

ENSO thread says -NAO talk is jumping the gun and don’t expect any significant cold shots at the very end of the month…

Thanks a lot

Trainingtimes Hrrr graphic has been fairly accurate in its depiction of a extremely narrow line of thunderstorms moving through Western Pennsylvania and the Ohio valley overnight. However, it has produced at no detectable lightning throughout the last several hours of its life cycle tonight. Furthermore the band has weakened as advertised. It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr can continue it's accurate depiction of reinitiation of a narrow band as it moves through cpa. If it can get going again, it definitely looked like that kind of sharp narrow band that could have some gnarly winds this time of year.

Don't forget 15 in Tamaqua...lol Not complaining, but my backyard is so sheltered by the neighborhood houses and the nearby mountains that I rarely get over 20 mph here

Squeal line incoming

You guys weren't kidding on the winds, weather station recorded a 30 mph gust (only counts a 5 second avg for gust speed) and temp dropped 12 degrees in 5 mins from 1010 to 1015 last night Interesting that the winds were from the north all day and flipped 180 degrees to from the south in that time period. Whipping fog at 60 degrees in heavy wind is awesome weather haha

SPC AC 190529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid Atlantic today. ...Mid Atlantic... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east along the front. Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not introduce wind probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0944Z (4:44AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

The 0z GFS is a heatwave, but possible light at the end of the tunnel as the Aleutian high collapses finally at the end of the run. They tend to end that way, just beastly and then they go away. It's ending on that run around January 5th, which would be close to it's average 32 day lifecycle.

That would be so poignant though…rain for the chronic and constant curmudgeon…while everyone else snows. Payback from ma nature is such a bitch.

Upton believes it ZFP from KOKX

I hate to even be abhorrent to the idea of a retrogression but this is not the first time models have shown a Scandi like ridging pattern and no actual retrogression took place. I do hope that it comes to fruition but I think the Nina background state is still causing issues overall. The flow is just too damn fast even with the -WPO in the tank. I think what this could at least open up for us in the east is the potential of more precip east of the rockies and then we play the game of can it happen with cold air still holding on enough to allow snowfall. We can't keep this dry train going.

The PNA dipping and trough persisting is more or less a tautology. If the models end up spitting out a new solution w/o trough by definition the PNA will not dip further negative.

Ill ask my work colleague as I am also interested if there is something out there. I don't see why there wouldn't be. I start vacation this weekend into the new year so I'll have free time to finally catch up on things online (thankfully). I know I keep saying this but I will set up the thread this weekend to chat about RONI. Im still surprised so many folks are caught off guard by this warm up and the potential of it being an extensive one at that, I wouldn't go as far as to say we are 'torching' but some areas especially in the southern plains and even lower midwest could hit record territory. Been beating this warm drum since about the beginning of the month. Even with the prospects of a deep -NAO coming up this does not cause any bit of a cooldown for much of the east after christmas into the new year, as should be expected. I would not be surprised to see temps get to average if not slightly below average a few times during the week before the end of the year but overall much of the cold that has been across the eastern 1/3rd of the country should take a solid beating on the monthly scale. The cold is locked in Alaska and NW Canada I do expect as we get into the new year and especially after the first week for us to push a more normal state temp wise and eventually that cold should dislodge and make a run into the CONUS. We should know the models have a hard time grasping these types of pattern evolving (the potential retrogression) just like they tend to rush a -NAO out much quicker than reality suggests.

After much above normal temps across most the USA next week - we get back into a more normal winter pattern as blocking over Greenland has more influence later next week and beyond - individual storms yet to be determined.........

Latest modeling showing possibly 15 PLUS inches of pure water smashing down on the north Sierra. That would be catastrophic flooding and/or truly epic, Brobdingnagian amounts of snow.

This December has been insanely mild here in the Pacific Northwest. Can’t help but it’s a preview of what the typical December will be like in…2250?

It’s definitely not as good down his way. Rain on the 23rd while everyone else is snowing would objectively suck. Still time for this one though so nothing is locked.

https://insightspsychology.org/the-dark-side-of-toxic-positivity/ Examples of Toxic Positivity: Telling someone who is grieving, “Everything happens for a reason.” Advising a friend going through a tough time to “look on the bright side.” Posting on social media with hashtags like #NoNegativity or #StayPositive in the context of serious challenges. Shaming someone for expressing sadness, fear, or anger by saying, “You’re bringing down the vibe.” While these phrases are often well-intentioned, they can invalidate the recipient’s feelings and prevent meaningful emotional processing.

I've never seen one, anyplace, ever. Anyone else?

Cousin at 2400 feet in an exposed area said that at 10:50 they recorded a gust at 75mph then the aneometer broke off. Had some reports of roofs blown off. Huge trees are down too. Wide spread power outages.

Dude .. you are broken. You've now joined the ranks of Torch Tiger and Qshmegma