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Its more the condescending elitist manner that defines some here. Fucking science constantly evolves what we think to be true scientifically sometimes isn't. I know the earth is warming but there's always the yin and yang theorem. It would be nice to read more discussions rather than I know all because I am scientist. Its what went wrong in America.Ya know some of us deplorables can think rationaly

I think Josh said he was in the right eyewall. But I don’t think he was in the eye itself.

If we get that early SSWE, any E US cold affects would probably be stronger in Jan than in Dec based on typical lag time.

What has triggered the sudden increase in CO2 from baseline over the last hundred or so years then? And there’s no sign of it leveling off. In theory a warmer atmosphere from more trapped heat can hold more water too…hence the higher dewpoint levels. But you have been a fan of the sediment and ice core data in the past and they have ways to determine the annual CO2 from those layers. Like the graph I posted earlier shows, it’s pretty much ranged from 200-300ppm over the last 800k years. So 425ppm and steadily climbing isn’t normal variation…at least it isn’t to my eyes. Nice on the coop door. I’ve been wanting one, but I’m always afraid something will fail and it will open up at night. My birds are molting hard right now. Big winter incoming? I got them all winterized yesterday.

This place has been today.

It was called easternwx. I remember that day........... sad to lose everything that was put there.

So parts ppm got it. Hey maybe look elsewhere as well before putting all your chicken eggs in the basket. Why does it have to be one thing. Underwater volcanoes, the sun output, water vapor affects on night time lows etc. We can discuss rationaly. Not laugh or demean (Scooter) By the way finishing construction of new coop and connected hoop coop. Getting there new solar auto door light sensitive or programmed.

Regardless of what snow happens Sunday morning. The meso features on models after that look interesting too

There’s still some like that around here

Correct, it shouldn’t be political, it’s just facts. We know certain human processes are bad for the environment, yet some people choose to believe otherwise. All in the name of owning the opposing political party, I guess?

This map above is hilarious .But Maybe Just Maybe

Looks nice Rather show this than the deep cold which would cause suppression like last year.

Did you mean you would not expect a very cold December, then?

Like I said. I believe in CC and that men can’t have babies. Somehow both are heavily political

I’ll come out of hibernation and bite against my better judgement. It’s funny (or not) how CC became such a bipartisan issue. I was watching the documentary The White House Effect on Netflix last night and didn’t realize how seriously the bush administration took global warming, at first accepting the scientific facts but eventually whitewashing it as up to debate. How much we have regressed since then is depressing. It should not be a D vs R issue. Anyways hope all of you are well. Just got a snowmaking gun delivered to work today so I’ll be making and frolicking in the white stuff before the rest of you weenies.

Well that’s why I don’t even debate temps anymore. It’s hard to know how much could be a natural cycle vs anthropogenic induced. Obviously we know there’s a lot of heat being added in order to raise the ocean temps and melt the arctic ice/permafrost, but it’s more difficult comparing changes in 2m temps globally…heck we have a hard enough time doing it with a single station with siting changes. But for me there’s no getting around the runaway CO2 levels. I’ve said it many times, but just clean that up and let the temps be whatever they may be. Who wants all of those emissions in the atmosphere anyway? I just don’t understand why it has to come down across party lines. It’s so mind numbingly dumb.

I didn't get an answer directly, but LWX FB page has an image showing the growing season is over in the LWX CWA for everyone but St. Mary's/Calvert in S MD and King George in VA

I would not expect a very cold Decemer, - NAO just delivers consistently pedestrian departures. You need the +TNH get really cold values...and this is assuming tha the -NAO isn't overdone, which it probably is.

well, pretty soon the snowmobile crowd will be relegated to northern Manitoba, so those posts will be gone. Driving 20 hours to find snow for snowmobiling

Totally my anecdotal observations, but it seems like the weeklies are ok at picking out a single “pattern change” during the forecast period, but then don’t properly show how that new pattern may evolve or change. So I buy a “good” pattern develops after thanksgiving, but I doubt it looks the same for the subsequent 4 weeks.

Of course there is very little fundamental accuracy this far out however it would be nice to see a more robust signal for precipitation in our area. A lot will depend on the configuration and presence of blocking if we are to get any snowfall prior to the holidays. And years past going far back with a Nina when it has been cold in December which has happened on quite a few occasions it has normally been dry right when the cold snap ends was when the precipitation set in as you can imagine a typical occurrence cold dry warmer wetter.

Not going to lie, I think it’s pretty garbage that we cater to an anti-science crowd and temper tantrums, when it comes to the very obvious human influenced warming of the earth. On a science and weather forum no less. Just calling it like it is.