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This is really accurate

The snowfall measurement may not be that bad considering that both LGA and NYC warmed up quite a bit at the start of the precipitation. So we had marginal temperatures for accumulation earlier in the event. When the cold arrived the best banding and higher rates missed to the east of NYC to LGA. Southern Queens into Nassau and Suffolk got into the better banding.

20 / 8 off a low of 13. Clear till around noon. Near or sub freezing today (coldest of the next 7 days). Some flurries or snow showers later to maybe whiten up the ground re coat the snow. A tinge warmer on Tue to / above freexing low-mid 30.s Moderation to and above normal Wed (low - mid 40s) Near 50 / Thu with rain developing overnighg into a warmest of the week Fri (50s) and potentially near one inch of rain to melt the snow cover. Looks like a brief shot of colder on this coming Saturday in an overall warmer than normal period through Christmas day. Ridge center a bit west keeping the strongest warmth to our south and west but overall near normal the period after christmas to the end of the month with the very cold to the north and warmth just to the south sandwiching the area and a storm threat to close out the period between 30 - 31.

It's not an excuse...it's just a product of life. Even myself I wish I got to be a bit more invested with local forecasts. But I have to do forecasts for all over the country and its not really forecasting for people so I don't get to do specific forecasts like this (making snowfall maps/forecasts for example). I just do this for fun...but I am so tired after work stuff I barely have the energy to do these maps/forecasts/blog posts. I've been wanting to switch and do videos but I am not a technological person or meant to be heard (why I didn't pursue broadcasting lol). But for my severe weather class this past semester, we had to do a video presentation for our final project and as part of the class I got camtasia which is super easy to use...so I may switch from written blogs to video...might be easier/less time consuming.

16 low here

1.9 this morning - like some others, didn't move much overnight. Still a few flurries dancing about capping a great weekend of winter.

1000hr 2m temps. What could go wrong? It looks like it wants to be warm in the Great Lakes too, but it’s popping big neg anomalies over Lake Superior. I could see that in the spring, but don’t understand how the lake helps them pull neggies in Jan.

Good question .

I find myself challenged for time this year because the family is home and I have 4 kids aged 1-6, so sometimes my results will reflect that a bit. Not to make excuses....I still should have trusted my work and stuck to my guns more.

It’s not a warm or even mild pattern . It’s a strong windy screamer that really warms it up for a day . I think chances are 60/40 in favor of snow OTG Xmas Day

I think what you put forth was pretty damn good as what did 4 Seasons and Seymour. I wouldn't even be surprised if some or a chunk of the snow reports were inflated a tad (by like 0.5"), if people measured in the grass when you also account for fluff factor. When I was driving along 84 yesterday, the stretches of median which are flat and grassy...you could easily see grass poking through. It wasn't until like towards Waterbury/Route 8 where that wasn't the case (especially closer to Seymour/Ansonia). But these maps are pretty damn good. There will always be some that end up along the upper end of the range or just over and some that end up along the lower end or just a tad under

Unreal...early season has gone exactly as I had expected patten progression wise, just colder and LESS snow than I had expected. Make. It. Stop.

Not sure how this map gets made but it seems pretty wrong based on the public information sheet mt holly released. Lower bucks/mercer/burlingon/monmouth counties all had reports of 6”+ as well. Hell it has 4.6 over TTN and they officially reported 6.8” what gives?

Yes well LGA also recorded 1 inch of snow when I had 7 inches in November 2012 just 3 miles east. I honestly don't care if the park recorded 1 inch or 10 inches. The station is completely irrelevant. I wish people didn't use it as the official record of anything. Why is it ok to say their temperarture readings are irrelevant and not reliable but their snowfall amounts are? I think they both suck.

Indeed. The official RMM record always puts it in one of the 8 phases (6, 5, 6, 7, 7 per the bolded below for 12/8-12), but, regardless, this is about as bullseye/weak as you can get for a 5 day period: 2025 12 8 0.16185258 0.31161267 6 0.35113916 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 9 0.23143651 0.18252292 5 0.29474986 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 10 0.12193847 0.22910139 6 0.25953120 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 11 -9.49310213E-02 0.16355878 7 0.18911207 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 12 -2.23553125E-02 8.96196812E-02 7 9.23658386E-02 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

This definitely isn't like a ratter pattern and I think the season is over...I still like the season as a whole, but now we enter into a decidedly more unfavorable regime for a rather extended stretch after squanders.

I told you my 1989 story. Imagine not seeing any accumulation and -17 for the month

Low of 15 here also where it stayed most of the night. Teens all the way to the Carolina coast!

18 here in silver spring inside the beltway. Cold for December! Hope we hit single diggies and permanent glacier in January

Most typical arrangement of indices and ingredients for a major coastal are -NAO, -AO, +PNA, -EPO, and a 50/50 low that locks forward movement of the main cyclone. 50/50 is latitude and longitude. You want the +PNA because it orients the ridge axis out west that, in turn, creates ideal trough orientation downstream / in the eastern CONUS. Storms can ride the trough, gather strength, and come north. There's some more nuanced version of the variables that might be even better, that is, a pattern that's relaxing (like a -PNA going positive or a -NAO going positive) lending to higher correlation.

No, not on you....my tone is awful because I'm frustrated. Wasn't clear...

The cutter cometh, the cutter taketh

No, I agree front enders are possible....just sucks to be where we are after how cold it has been, and now be relegated to hoping for a couple of inches of slush before it washes away and we add to the snow stake.

I’m still hoping something works out between now and Christmas, but I think it’s worth noting pattern stinks that’s all.

Ok misunderstood you