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Would be cool if we could get a repeat of those thunder snow squalls that we saw last year.

Don't see much EPS support.

Give it another couple days at least…before we thread imo.

BWI: 22.3 DCA: 16.7 IAD: 28.3 RIC: 9.6 SBY: 11.7

For official rain at my place, I have a cocorahs gauge. I always like to compare it to the station one.

That big +WPO vortex is similar to October 2021 and 2022. It creates a steep gradient between the cold in Siberia and the record WPAC warm pool. So we get a very fast Pacific Jet as a result with frequent lows cutting through the Great Lakes.

Finally from MU: Due in large part to an unseasonably warm first week of the month, aggregate temps in #October2025 ended up slightly above average. Rainfall was near normal thanks to the "last-second save" on the 30th.

Euro weeklies

It may be worth it to thread for that if it persists. There is some index support -

Here in Chester County PA October finished as our 5th below normal temperature month over the 1st 10 months of 2025, It was the 59th coldest October over the last 133 years of county climate records. Precipitation wise it was the 53rd driest October but much wetter than last October which was our driest October on record with many spots not recording any measurable rainfall at all. This October continues our trend of slightly cooling Octobers with climate records back to 1893. Below is the October average temperature trend lines and the overall Climate Summary Detail for October 2025.

Here in Chester County PA October finished as our 5th below normal temperature month over the 1st 10 months of 2025, It was the 59th coldest October over the last 133 years of county climate records. Precipitation wise it was the 53rd driest October but much wetter than last October which was our driest October on record with many spots not recording any measurable rainfall at all. This October continues our trend of slightly cooling Octobers with climate records back to 1893. Below is the October average temperature trend lines and the overall Climate Summary Detail for October 2025.

Sorry, the above posts are out of order. LOL Forecast has a ton of similarities to last year, including the forecast of a late December/early January cold snap that he nailed.

Here you go, snow lovers! The moment you've been waiting for is here: my 2025-2026 Winter Outlook! Three primary winter-season influences will be a weak La Niña, strongly-negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) & weak stratospheric #PolarVortex (SPV). The weak SPV should allow Arctic air to plunge into the Central/Eastern States at times, mainly before mid-Jan & perhaps again in late Feb or Mar. Analogs suggest the coldest/snowiest part of winter could be around the holidays due to high-latitude (NAO/AO) blocking. Despite plenty of mild days during the 2nd half of the season, odds of a #WhiteChristmas are the highest in years. From Dec-Feb, aggregate temps should be slightly above normal (0 to +2°F). "All-rain" & "changeover" events will be common after mid-Jan with more "all-snow" events beforehand.

Ha that’s funny, I mentioned that yesterday in this specific thread too. I think I’d like to see a little bit more support for that though… But it’s a deep trough with some shortwaves rounding the bend so need to watch maybe for at least first flakes, if not, maybe minor stuff and some interior areas.

Heiny is back !

GFS joins the cold train

MU:

I haven't been talking about it as much because it's been near neutral.. the May-Sept total N. Atlantic SST indicator for Winter (DJFM) NAO came in at +0.08. It has a normal standard deviation of 0.54, so that makes it 50% likely to have a Winter NAO -0.46 to +0.64.

Pretty strong ULL solution on 12z euro for day 7-9 .

BWI: 20.2 DCA: 14.2 IAD: 20.8 RIC: 12.2 Tie Breaker SBY: 10.2

12z Euro's hinting at a NJ modeler in a week. In fact, if it were not for some lead wave interference it'd likely take off. As is, it's the first regional lower elevation inclusive chance to snow. I was mentioning that 10-13th period over in the winter outlook thread just this morning.

Scientific sales is where I have bought a lot of my weather equipment. They are cheaper than Davis. I use my vantage vue for rain and temperature and wind readings are separate about 30 ft . in the air.

If you want to trust the Euro snow map a week out (one can't), those of us in Orange County will have some shoveling to do.

Barney’s coming to town early next week: Hello, boys and girls! That’s me coming to an E US location near you!

Bwi: 13.4" DCA : 9.6" IAD : 15.2" RIC :5.4" Tie Breaker SBY:3.8"