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Yea, the healthy -IOD bolsters the case for not jumping ship due to the subsurface...I didn't get into the IOD and GLAAM here because it was just a brief updated synopsis, but I definitely will in the seasonal analysis.

While unlikely we watch!

Yeah, nothing to it.

The best guess so far is the big reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions over the last decade from China and shipping lead to less clouds over the Pacific which was masking the CO2 emissions warming. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/asia-air-pollution-sulfates-warming

Hey Brian, I checked the coordinates as Gilbert passed over Jamaica: It went from 17.6N, 75.3W to 18.3N, 78.5W over a 12 hour period. Per a lat/long mileage calculator, that’s 216 statute miles, which means a brisk 18 mph. That’s a whopping 6 times faster than the very slow average of 3 mph that Melissa is forecasted to move while adjacent to Jamaica! So, Gilbert held onto its strength while moving right over it at 18 mph. How would Melissa do moving a mere 3 mph but just south of the island?

Hey Chris, If the sudden early 2023 spike was due to sharp mid-latitude Pacific warming, then what caused that sharp early 2023 Pacific warming?

Went from sunny to overcast real quick here. Currently 58 degrees.

Good. Don't like rain

Beautiful fall day here. Wall to wall sunshine.

It just seems crazy to me that a volcano can throw as much water vapor into the atmosphere as this one did and it’s pretty much shrugged off as nothing to see here.

It could just be that mid-latitude Pacific warming is acting as a higher latitude El Niño. So this is why the warming occurred earlier in 2023 than during past El Niño events. Plus the warming lingered longer than previous El Niños.

The trend should be our friend in the rainfall dept. next week. Latest 4 model blend gives Augusta 1.50 next week and latest 7 day WPC gives 1.50 - 2.00", though it only counts when in the bucket. Water table in the Valley has dropped 10 ft. since early August.......................................

That storm was a sicko. It entered Jamaica with 115 mph sustained and exited at 130. I couldn't believe what I was seeing on the old TWC tropical updates

We all believe it from the beginning, we just tell ourselves we don't as a coping mechanism.

Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted back west and south again.

very good mean as well

Thanks Charlie, This tells me that they still don’t know why there was a sudden spike in the first half of 2023. Just a lot of speculation.

Rah adds a lot of territory to the frost advisory

Based on the final recon pass and the visible loop, it appears the center has jogged northwest, and is now west of the NHC forecast.

I remember several years back when the record low arctic sea ice regime first started. The hype was out of control that the open waters were going to add evaporative moisture and cause all time record snowcover to build up in the arctic and result in a strongly negative AO. That theory ended up being a real massive bust and many pro mets bought into it hook, line and sinker and used it to predict a big winter that fall

ICE went into Portland looking for illegals and the FBI found the mob there instead.

Please, and thank you.