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55-60 in my yard on Xmas per the GFS lol keep pushing the cool air south homies.

Congrats. Have you retired yet?

I don’t need Christmas cancelled, but a few inches would be nice.

The have more pbp on all models. Of course lots of posts get passed over by me. But lots of good folks at Swx for sure! But this place is my home base. Has been for years. .

Yeah, it's a pain and it's always hard to know for sure but some are pretty obvious. I'm just about done, nearly 1k reports across all 3 maps, about 6 hours deep so far. I should have them up within the hour.

It would be pretty sweet if my first Christmas in my new home is snowy...moving day is this Friday!

Yep have to watch this timeframe. The NAO is goijg negative.

Blocking did its job

Not wintery weather but looks like a banger of a cold front Friday morning, heavy rain, T storms possible and very strong winds.

Maybe they left their grass really high? I'm only half kidding. Im sure that there aren't a lot of us with a snow ruler using a snowboard. I also get the sense that there's a fair amount of snow envy out there so I wouldn't be surprised if some people report late after seeing what's in their area and then jack potting themselves. I don't envy you trying to weed out the bullshit measurements but it's appreciated.

We’re not that far from a white Christmas. 150 miles more south?

Oh boy oh boy

We need to stop comparing today to 35+ year old analogs. The climate has changed drastically. There are way too many variables in play today vs then.

Grades but that was close.. to the south of us gets nailed

6z Gfs wants to ruin Christmas with zr/ip. It'll probably keep pushing cold south until Chill wins again. Lol

6Z Gfs trying for Christmas day now

Some better trends overnight. Still don’t like the pattern overall, it the 11-15 day featured a good ridge poking into Greenland. Still hope for Christmas.

Not much but it will do

Christmas saved for all of SNE on the 6z GFS

GFS trying to change over here at the end Friday.. it would be nice to get a coating after losing it all

Yeah, look at how there is consistency. This is what I would expect. Usually the Winter pattern sets up in Nov/Dec and persists. In the Pacific the Winter pattern can even set up as early as Sept/Oct. If the atmosphere is Nina-like right now, I don't see why it would be +PNA in Jan, although 7 of the last 7 is like a 1:25 random type of thing. The 384hr ensemble means still have a very strong Aleutian ridge, +300dm in early Jan. It's also showing no signs of letting up, strengthening in anomaly between 372hr - 384hr. Kudos to those who said La Nina effects would happen this Winter. The pattern with a dry STJ and flooding in the NW is actually Moderate/Strong Nina like. 2nd year PDO's, where the PDO didn't correlate year 1 have really high correlation numbers in year 2 for whatever reason.

Chuck, The strongest Jan +PNAs for +ENSO were these: 1977: +1.8 from +0.5 in Dec 1983: +1.2 from +0.8 in Dec 1987: +1.0 from +1.4 in Dec 1992: +1.3 from +0.5 in Dec 2003: +1.3 from +1.6 in Dec 2010: +1.3 from +0.3 in Dec 2016: +2.0 from +0.8 in Dec So, avg Dec preceding +1+ +ENSO Jan PNA was +0.8. But avg Jan following +1+ +ENSO Dec PNA was only +0.5 though it was skewed by 1954.

you didn't get any from the last event?

What in the world is that 9.7" in Monmouth county? I didn't see anything over 9" anywhere in cocorahs coop or the PNS by PHI.