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I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place.

They’re always low. Most places 1-2 here.

Thank you very much for that. I'll keep everyone posted.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely rise into the lower and middle 70s. Another system could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives. Showers and perhaps some heavy thunderstorms are possible. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +5.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.550 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 1986 for the 9th warmest May on record.

74 today

ya eastern areas meh.. they will get more at the end of the week though..

BOS at .43" going into today.

most averaged 3 or more your area was a little less even SE of you had over 3.25 I had 3 to 4 west of 495 with a spot 5 or 6 and meh for eastern areas and the cape.. I think that was a pretty good call

It was a glorious day for weather. It was our 20th anniversary and we got lucky and had lunch outside at Cork n Fork and wish @Jns2183 was sending us free liquor but alas.

5.13 inches here, that would wash my gullies.

This is good news and I'm sure the wind will follow. Thank goodness... 65F

They probably just wanted to finish labeling the graph lol

Charlie, You’re making virtually the same point I was suspecting about Dr. V’s confusing (to me) thoughts about the wind speed. He was thinking the paper was saying sfc winds increased at 40 degrees latitude instead of upper winds shifting N. I thought I might have been lost. But with you matching my thoughts, I feel more confident Dr. V misunderstood. Yeah, Dr. V was focused on only the Atlantic portion instead of also including the Pacific portion at 40N. I didn’t understand why. I agree that Dr. V’s point about the narrow baseline period as well as where the paper’s starting period (2005) was are valid concerns.

I just need Saturday morning to be somewhat rain free. I’m helping run a huge tag sale for the Boy Scouts and we need people to show up and buy stuff.

Parts of Greenfield Work close to or over 3” for Thurs- Monday.

They did? Looks like most under

how is 2.45 1 to 2? most got over that

Nailed it.

in other words sunscreen and installs

1-2.7” lol

On Reggie

2.45” Exactly what was thought . A very meh event and only small area saw big amounts over 5-6”. Globals never resolve rainfall well . This will be another great example on Friday. Berks to Freak and Dendy will get 3-7” but most will end up say 1-2.7”. E MA especially south of Boston could see under 1.5”

Another line of showers moving thru here now, Saturday looks like ass once again.

what there's no way your 5 day total was 1 to 2

for the 324th time, those west Atl NAM cyclones are too far NW at this range