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Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet. Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern.

Some thoughs on ENSO heading into next hurricane season: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1986046871349936133

Take your pick form the last several lol I think the EPS was actually better with that? I thought GFS was worst and Australian was best.

I don't feel like there is any piece of data that you wouldn't be able to come up with a fatalistic take on.

The impact of the IOD is so nebulous...I feel like every attribution to that is voodoo. The only thing I hang my hat on is that it serves as a protective factor for the development of cool ENSO.

Second year Nina seasons don't necessarily have to be awful, though...71-72, 08-09...

During the 70s, 80s, and 90s I rarely saw snow before Christmas. But my parents remember lots of snows in the 60s which were early. It certainly seems that early arriving winters are more normal now with February being less storm - kind of traded one for the other. Just a quick update so I don't have to post twice. The Euro continues to advertise a rather vigorous wave w/ the 9-11th cold shot. The GFS and CMC not so much. The Euro makes the most sense as that is a very common occurrence when cold are arrives which is that strong. Something to continue watching.

We had a forum prior to AmWx. It was basically the people from this site, but closed down. We were in the SE forum then. When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum. There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area. Eastern Weather I "think" was its name. I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is. It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library. I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that. But at least we would have a backup. Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back. Lost all of it.

Saw this coming…wind is a fraud 5 for the most part. Don’t really care…just know if it’s not tropical, expect an underwhelming event. It’s that simple.

38 at the house and 34 through the rurals. Onward.

Hopefully cutters for Thanksgiving and Christmas week ski season.

I am very excited for this winter. I do not except really any snow until the second half of December but strongly believe that January will be a burial.

Probably 45-55 there. Maybe a gust near 60 here.

Ava mentioned snow/sleet last night when talking about Monday.

You're not going to be 60 mph winds anymore. Everyone has now said 55 would be Max gusts.

At some point you just have to flush the turd

They’ll be a burst of strong winds near coast but lost high end potential. Meh. Maybe we get convection

Finish off the oak leaves.

Hopefully singing this all winter

We out. We’ll be windy, but nothing high end here. Also don’t want to read too much into it…but virtually every storm during this active period has been a cutter or coastal hugger…

I lived in Providence for ten years, 2000 - 2010. I have a great photo of a perfect, thin funnel shaped water spout over Narragansett Bay. Not my photo, but I can probably find it on my FB or online. Not a tornado, of which I saw none down there. Narragansett area has been my home away from home also from Boston since the mid- to late 1990s. Not as much lately from up here, but I am remedying that situation.

55-60

No changes from my view on the coming wind event tonight. Please continue to follow NWS advisories-warnings. I'll try and post info later this evening. May slightly update the thread headline at 5PM but otherwise all damage OBS in this thread tonight-thanks. Overall trend since yesterday, imo is wind advisory 40-45 kt gusts for 1-3 hours, except warning 50 KT ridges and eastern LI.

Looking meh