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We need to restart that early Dec snow heater. Been too long.

Such a beautiful part of the country.

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

Its lazy. They roll that shit out every Fall.

This run backed off on Amounts. We'll see if that's a trend by 0z. I'd expect it to uptick as Lakes are very warm so plenty Upslope to be fed.

Someone's excited! Glad we're back in the hunt though we are likely chasing token first flakes at best

For me it's a toss up between PD II (Feb 2003) and December 2009. Both events I experienced in Philadelphia and Lancaster County, PA respectively. PD II: I was in high school in Philly just got into winter weather tracking and had access to the Internet at my high school library for the last period of the day. The librarian was always gracious enough to let me just quietly geek out on model guidance and NWS web pages. Watching this storm get more and more interesting as we closed on the end of the work week was awesome. December 2009: I was working 2nd into 3rd shift at the IT Help Desk at Millersville University and got paid to do homework and watch both the 18z and 00z model guidance come in on a triple monitor display with a nice Internet connection. I was also was a lead forecaster for our campus weather service at the time, and we had access to a read-only version of NWS chat. It was just pure giddiness to watch the 1.5" QPF line creep north with each model cycle, reach the AFDs from LWX/CTP/PHI and see the inklings of watches or warning start to come up in the chat rooms. I felt like I had access to almost secret data and it was AMAZING! Then came the morning before the event and I knew it was going to puke snow all along Mason-Dixon. It was the end of my undergraduate years and I was supposed to walk in graduation on the 19th, but I knew that wasn't going to happen. So I rushed back to Philly and boom...White Christmas.

Lets build that snowpack up north

LOL that's boilerplate climo. Lazy af. It's what most of these local mets do every Fall. How many times has that worked out east of the mountains since 2016? Hint- coastal areas have gotten above normal snow more times than not- that's well more than 0-6 lol.

Don’t like how warm Canada is but for now no panic

Looks like just enough troughiness in the East to keep us around normal to slightly below, while most of the country is well above normal..

Nice pattern coming up for the higher elevations and the Great Lakes snow belts.

We’ve been past peak for 2 weeks, almost all leaves down. Crazy the ranges we get in this forum.

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96. Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15). Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Hey Anthony, Looks great! It isn’t quite as good as yesterday’s, which was the best run yet as it had the mean drop to 7 at the low point, but I still love this!

Agree with Walt D. about the possibility of first flakes in the 11/10 - 11/12 period. The GFS, EC, CMC, and ICON show a few different possible scenarios to achieve it. Parts of the mid-Atl may even be favored to get flakes before us. There should be some steep lapse rates and hopefully snow showers if an ULL swings through (ECM/ICON) and/or in the cold northwest flow that develops behind the rain event (GFS).

High school kids again? Why do you follow them and worse.. post them here

The old man is back, the hour is near !!! LETS GOOOOOOOOOO

Looks like I am about to get NAM'd. Per usual cut this in half and maybe we are talking something realistic.

Snowmap also looks good