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I didn't just use the numerical index, when I looked at each event I looked at the 5/3/1 days loading patterns and adjusted if the numerical index was obviously misleading. NAO had to be adjusted a lot when a block in the western NAO domain was cancelled out by heights in the eastern NAO domain which isn't relevant to our pattern as much. It would erroneously show up as a neutral or positive NAO when in fact there was an NAO block.

The latest ba release from sapwood is enjoyable. And its a perfect night for a sipper while watching the Olympics.

I know, but I didn’t believe it, but here we are, lol!

All snow now and trying to stick. Temp down to 34F

NAM is a good hit for the pike region

90/10 rain/snow mix.

I was thinking the same thing; however, most of the models that were showing snow had it falling largely to our east, and that's what's happened so far.

Lol, this worthless storm is infuriating me to the bitter end… I I don’t think that I have EVER seen a freaking change over happen well to my South east prior to my change over to snow in Marysville. Normally the change over happens first in Altoona, State College, Newport, Marysville, MDT, then Lancaster l, etc… Not tonight!

Snow/rain mix. 35F nice size flakes…

Flurries in babylon

CPC isn't perfect too.. this pattern last Winter was called +PNA. This would have been "positive" on your graph. 2025 1 15 0.8425661297669382 2025 1 16 0.6292797257596462 2025 1 17 0.3591812956820121 2025 1 18 0.2963853705652808 2025 1 19 0.25645632216650666 2025 1 20 0.19665558838216474 2025 1 21 0.16494891370677975 2025 1 22 0.3096868402976654 2025 1 23 0.16090618641248808 2025 1 24 0.090735 2025 1 25 -0.00812 2025 1 26 -0.00391 2025 1 27 0.12996443644301287 2025 1 28 0.058971 2025 1 29 0.075685 2025 1 30 0.22591144673920 158 2025 1 31 0.28769816664388287 2025 2 1 0.23227473560905743 2025 2 2 0.061725 2025 2 3 -0.15733 2025 2 4 -0.14046 2025 2 5 0.22531992513175264

I hope its a super nino. Texas is parched. We need about 50 inches of rain and a Harvey over Austin for 5 weeks.

Roads slowly whitening in Exton. 33 degrees. Got to admit I laughed pretty hard when I saw a thread for this last night. Thought it would be all rain, or white rain not amounting to much.

Big flakes here but melting on contact with everything except cars and existing snow piles

Was just out walking. Snowing steadily but not sticking

Are you using the DM or CPC indexes? The CPC balances and evens it all out, so negative is just as probable as positive. Side note, but they are really moving toward RONI for ENSO monitoring: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

Snowing here

You are not alone. lol Over the years, I've noticed many quirky sticking patterns too. One is sticking in the expansion joints of sidewalks, but not on the sidewalk surface itself. Freezing rain glazes over cars more than on wood surfaces. Of course, sticking on grass before anything else. Sticking on rough pavement surfaces before smooth pavement.

95-96 was 66 96-97 was 21.5

I guess I’m just having trouble understanding how you’re getting that strong of sfc lapse rates and differential heating aloft on the mountain side snow surface. Do you get whirls like that during warm season?

In 18,000 BC this would've been 10" of snow on 20:1 ratios.

7 car accident out here on 222 s Spring Twp roads are caving moderate snow

They seem to start during differential heating or steep lapse rates during CAA. We seem to get them during times of broken clouds/partly sunny conditions after a snow, with a strong 850 mb flow amid steep low level lapse rates.

Rain about to end here. Almost .5". This was a better event than I thought it'd be. Much needed and I won't miss the salt that covered everything.

I'm amazed that there's still some semblance of a snowpack outside my window after the conditions this weekend