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Just walked the dog,,,,,23 degrees here in New City = that is all

I wonder... Would they actually upgrade the Winter weather advisory in Hartford to a winter storm warning?

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.

Lowest map i have seen so far.

You will do good so pics please

Good map

Some thunder possible tomorrow evening, not expected to be severe with MUCAPE below 500 J/kg. Although I do wonder if some small hail might be possible with any stronger cells, especially in the warm sector. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

Ukie bumped north

Looks like you all do good with this so that’s great for Holiday time. My grand children are old enough to sled finally and Santa delivered, You all have fun with yours!

Hrdps

Knyc: 2.4” ewr: 4.2 lga: 3.1 hpn: 4.8 somewhere in the oc hinderlands: 10.7”

Hey I’m in NYC for this one

That 1033 high is now right on the nipple of Hudson/James Bay.

28. Should be one of those overcast days in the 20s where it smells like snow

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The RRFS has snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour tomorrow night (assuming 10:1). The heavy snow only lasts an hour or two on the model, but it would be fun. Other models have a burst of heavy snow as well though mostly 1-2" per hour max.

Clear skies, light winds. Just decoupled and dove to 33/19.

Down to 30 here in Brooklyn NY Expecting 4 -8 inches for NYC. This will be very interesting how the banding will set up.

I mentioned 2/8/94 earlier for a different reason but this storm may resemble it in one way in that 80% of the accumulation may occur in the first 4 hours where some places might see 2 inch per hour rates at points. After 9-10pm it could be very light spotty type stuff with even a chance of some mixing in areas that largely stayed N of the mix line during the peak of the event.

25 here.

GEFS juiced and north

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall.

This will be fun to track tomorrow. The atmospheric lottery storms are the best!

Some of the Mesos show a sharp edge wrt the dry air intrusion. Get on the snowy side of that and maybe some good ratios.