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Cool cloud half way up the mountain today

@40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M

This was from the temp website https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf I use 925mb specifically to not get temperature but more so to see the pattern associated to this region in specific thus I will continue to use 925mb as a better representation of what is going on. This was a retention year in that the overall atmospheric pattern was on the colder side. Unfortunately I don't think we will get fairly accurate measurements of the lowest 1000' or so in this region due to the complex nature involved with sea ice/ oceanic exchange issues with the lower atmsophere. You will read this within the first paragraph as to the issues involved. Another factor is the slushification that is taking place throws another wrench into getting an accurate surface reading. 2006 and 2013 were also solid retention years. The time period of roughly mid April to end of June will continue to be an extremely important time to gauge how the melt season will go. There is a glaring difference when comparing ERA5 of 2013 to 2026 2m temps.

Welcome! We lived in the Lehigh Valley about 30 years ago and experienced both the thrill of victory (a couple enormous snowstorms in about 1995) and the agony of defeat (skiing in the pouring rain at Blue Mountain when snow was forecast). I will say that medium and long range forecast accuracy around here is typically awful, not through any fault of anyone except Mother Nature. Storms tend to form right over us - or not - rather than coming from hundreds or thousands of miles away, making it super hard to predict anything specific more than a day or so out. One good thing is that we VERY rarely have snow changing to rain, ever. Much more common the other way around. Ptype is one thing that's pretty accurate, even snow levels within a few hundred feet most of the time. You'll learn the elevation of just about anywhere you go.

No doubt about it, now. Line is forming 20 miles west of Buda. Everything is forming then moving right along that line or wester. Bulverde and Bergheim just got blasted by yellow globs. I probably won't even see those hit me until very late tomorrow night and by then the whole moisture line will be racing for the Atlantic. But no rain tonight because I am on the WRONG side of the moisture axis means I get to do delivery! Stand by for another catastrophe in Kerrville with this system.

I will say the Fall foliage appears to be great this year.

Topped out at 72 today. Felt muggy with a DP in the mid 60s. 3.91” of precipitation in September. About an inch above average.

At first glance on TT the Cansips have peak SST anomalies even warmer for Nov/Dec generally between 125-140W. Peak SSTAs are a little further east compared to last month but still pretty far west.

The foliage is firing as we head into October.

The Flyers suck. It better snow or it’s gonna be a long, pointless winter.

The middle schooler in me snickered at this map....

Cansips on TT (not all products yet) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0

September finished with a monthly mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.8° below normal (1991-2020). The September 25-28 nor'easter that brought 3.10" of rainfall to Central Park was arguably the month's highlight event.

He has become quite the complainer ….

Some folks are never happy.

September is finishing with a mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City. That is 0.8° below normal (0.4° above the older 1981-2010 baseline). Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

I think there's a non-zero chance up our way. Maybe on the peaks though.

Today's Highs TEB: 81 EWR: 79 New Brnswck: 79 ACY: 78 BLM: 78 JFK: 76 TTN: 76 LGA: 74 NYC: 74 ISP: 70

An absolutely incredible part of the country. I treasure every time I get invited up to Tupper Lake.

God, this place delivers. The pictures don't do it justice.