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look at the last 3 runs of the Canadian. Definite shift.

yup, and the confluence trending stronger for Friday strengthens the block, which helps Sunday trend better. just a series of dominoes

Let me guess. You're not from LI or the northern and northeast suburbs.

Exactly. It is also important to watch where models track the redeveloping slp. AIGFS is off the VA/NC border. Thats pretty key. Eta: is a function of the nao and the hp strength so yeah, all interconnected here

Big shift SW on the Canadian. Big Hit for CT. Once again, the trajectory blows for everyone else, so it’s an advisory event elsewhere

if one looks at snapshot of 12z gfs, you'll see upper 50's and 60 touching SW corner of state, while NE is knee deep in cold. Furthermore, if you look at the last 4 runs, you'll notice the colder looks backin in from the NE. Is that right, not sure, but i can see how this makes some sense.

Problem is precip is delayed on the nam and would arrive after temps climb above freezing

Yep further south and colder though.

Sadly it normally goes to waste

Cmc is also south and colder but nice hit for new new England

I think they have been when trying to extend a warm spell. We've seen them wrong several times this season just as Larry pointed out about the EPS.

That's a big piled up train wreck in the Atlantic....that's what is causing all these systems to trend colder in the medium range.

Canadians north. Toss

Friday night sleetfest on cmc

Canadian is paltry. Like 1” east, maybe 2” west. Very weak system.

Good stuff GaWx. Always backing your positivity with facts! Love it!

They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December.

I dont even see a storm yet Much slower and north of gfs

AIGFS is colder aloft than Gfs fwiw.

Gfs trended north with the Friday/Saturday storm, but still not enough for New England. Models jumping around for the last few days, but of course, starting to settle on the solution with the least impact for NE

Gfs has another wave that trended colder for Sunday.

Congratulations! Enjoy because they grow fast. My two kiddos are now 22 (boy)19 (girl).

Gfs has another wave that trended colder for Sunday.

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent, torch, or in the freezer. We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models.

I lost 1.13" qp with the 12z run thru Saturday evening. BAD DEAL Of course, the idea is still there.....................